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10-24-2018, 06:16 PM
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#1
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Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Louisville, KY
Posts: 328
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Estimating Exacta payouts
One of my favorite wagers is a dutch exact wheel or box. But does anyone have any experience estimating prior to the probales being displayed.
Sometime I am forced to bet the 5th race prior to the 4th race even starting. Any ideas on how to estimate from the M/L to build a dutch ticket?
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10-24-2018, 07:35 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Western Kentucky
Posts: 273
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Estimating exacta payout from an old All-Ways newsletter:
$BET X WIN ODDS X (PLACE ODDS +1)
So, let's say you think the horse you want to back on top will go off at around 2 to 1 and the second place horse will be 10 to 1. You will make a straight one dollar bet:
1 X 2 X (10+1)
1 X 2 X 11 = 22
The payoff should be around 22 bucks for a dollar bet. Hope this helps.
__________________
Is there no standard anymore?
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10-24-2018, 07:37 PM
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#3
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Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Louisville, KY
Posts: 328
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that is what I was looking for thanks
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10-24-2018, 07:38 PM
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#4
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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You can develop a 'feel' for the odds, the field-size, and circuit into what I call 'types'.
You start to recognize general 'types' well enough to make a ballpark guess on what it will pay, and how conservative $1 unit you want to start/finish your parlay with...
hey 8 horse field in New York, and i like a the co fav over the fav, i figure it oughta pay somewhere between x and y
But in terms of value, you really want to be selecting races where you have an opinion.
If you can beat a heavy favorite for the win; you're guaranteed good value. A prime opinion.
Sometimes if you can at least beat the consensus 2nd-choice for second, than maybe you've got some action with a secondary opinion.
You see that often enough- the public likes the same horse you like to win, but they are sold on whomever appears in the form to be the next likely win contender, some cheap speed who figures to lose today's dual to your winner, and in the process leave the door open for the third or fourth public choice to take a late 2nd through the stretch. Not a huge score, but at least an opinion is the basis for your action, and should be fair enough for a gamble.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Last edited by Robert Fischer; 10-24-2018 at 07:40 PM.
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10-24-2018, 08:06 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Louisville
Posts: 278
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What if you could create a Dutch ticket that will go in at X mins to post with proper minimums based on actual odds at that point in time.
It's came up several times for us to do but not sure of it's value. It would be a major change to our condition system, and custom modifer system but would also allow conditional abc tickets (first leg) and conditional rank tickets (once that modifier is live)
__________________
Jason Martin
IT Director
AmWest Entertainment - AmWager
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10-24-2018, 08:31 PM
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#6
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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In answer to the ops question
Don't waste your time
Can't be done properly.
And if anyone says it can they are lying.
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10-24-2018, 08:52 PM
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#7
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Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Louisville, KY
Posts: 328
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Jason, that might be an option. I would have brush up on my Fair Odds predictions. Or if the entire dutch bet could be conditioned to have say 5/1 odds or what ever I choose. I use the dutch bet on your platform often. As a matter of fact, as I look at my account I have 42 closed tickets today. Most if not all are dutch exacta bets.
I worked late today and really liked the an exacta in the 3rd at Woodbine. I wasnt sure if I would be home with the traffic in time and I did not want to try and drive and handle the phone to get the bet down so I chose not to make the bet.
As it turned out, I got home with 8 min to post, got the bet down and hit the exacta hit the 4/7 paid 43.60. I had that just few times because of the dutch bet
FYI answered the email do you have any pull for the bonus money being awarded to those who did????? LOL
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10-24-2018, 09:01 PM
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#8
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Onion Monster
Estimating exacta payout from an old All-Ways newsletter:
$BET X WIN ODDS X (PLACE ODDS +1)
So, let's say you think the horse you want to back on top will go off at around 2 to 1 and the second place horse will be 10 to 1. You will make a straight one dollar bet:
1 X 2 X (10+1)
1 X 2 X 11 = 22
The payoff should be around 22 bucks for a dollar bet. Hope this helps.
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Using your same math methodology, if the 10-1 wins and the 2-1 is second, it pays only $30
---->1 x 10 x (2+1)= 30<----Houston Control, we have a problem.
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10-24-2018, 11:51 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Onion Monster
Estimating exacta payout from an old All-Ways newsletter:
$BET X WIN ODDS X (PLACE ODDS +1)
So, let's say you think the horse you want to back on top will go off at around 2 to 1 and the second place horse will be 10 to 1. You will make a straight one dollar bet:
1 X 2 X (10+1)
1 X 2 X 11 = 22
The payoff should be around 22 bucks for a dollar bet. Hope this helps.
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Horrible.
2/1 on top of a 10/1 in a 10 horse field potentially is going to pay a lot different than 2 on top of 10 in a 5 horse field. Not that I have a better way, but I know that field size and where the horses rank odds wise in the field must be taken into account.
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10-25-2018, 06:54 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Western Kentucky
Posts: 273
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It's not my formula, as noted. But it does a fair job, I've found. And it's a hell of a lot better than what the critics on this thread have suggested which is nothing.
Here's from Belmont yesterday (which has a relatively smaller takeout percentage on the wager than average),
Estimated exacta payouts-Real Payout
97.30-127.0
24.60-29.0
5.30-6.40
7.90-10.0
44.10-56.0
18.9-21.20
10.6-11.70
46.6-45.25
23.50-25.75
__________________
Is there no standard anymore?
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10-25-2018, 09:24 AM
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#11
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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THE PROBABILITY OF "A "HORSE WINNING IS (1/(ODDS+1))/ THE RACES TOTAL BOOK PERCENTAGE .
THE TOTAL BOOK PERCENTAGE FOR A TRACK WITH A 15% TAKE OUT SUMS TO ABOUT 1.18
THE PROBABILITY OF ANY HORSE WINNING IS (1/(ODDS+1))/1.18
TAG THE WIN HORSES WIN PROBABILITY WITH "A"
TAG THE PLACE HORSE WIN PROBABILITY WITH "B"
EXACTA PROBABILITY PROBABILITY FOR A/B IS:
A X (B/(1-A))
EXAMPLE: A HORSE ODDS =2-1, B HORSE ODDS = 3-1, TRACK TAKE OUT IS 15%
A HORSE WIN PROBABILITY IS (1/(2+1))/1.18 = .282
B HORSE WIN PROBABILITY IS (1/(3+1)/1.18 = .212
PROBABILITY FOR THE A/B COMBINATION IS,
.282/(.212/(1-.282)) = .083
THAT EQUATES TO A $1 RETURN OF (1/.083)= 12.04
THE FAIR $1 PAYOUT IS $12.04
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 10-25-2018 at 09:26 AM.
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10-25-2018, 11:42 AM
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#12
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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HERE IS AN EXCEL FILE. JUST ENTER "A" AND "B" ODDS IN THE YELLOW CELLS AND READ THE MIN $1 EXACTA PAYOUT
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-25-2018, 06:00 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 245
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QUIN PAYOUT SHEET
FORMULA
CAN YOU PLEASE DO A FAIR VALUE FOR QUINELLAS PLEASE
THANK YOU HYPNOTIST1
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10-25-2018, 06:11 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: eastern pennsylvania
Posts: 882
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I remember several years ago Turf Monthly I think it was put out a calculator
on what exactas should pay. It was a slide rule where you matched up the
first place with 2nd for the ideal payout. They recommended 2 ways to play
1. If the payout was an underlay you hammered it 2. If it was an overlay you
hammered it. The only guy who got hammered was trying to match up the
payouts with the ever changing exacta payouts. At Penn Nat'l one Sunday
afternoon a guy was trying to use it and asked for my help. It was more
like working than having a fun day at the races. He's hammer the underlay
it would lose. Then vice versa. I think he chucked it in the garbage can when
he left. I wish I would have picked it up just for old times sake.
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10-25-2018, 06:23 PM
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#15
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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No need for a slide rule, they just did that to have something tangible to sell you. That's why they are out of business
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