HANDICAPPING MAGICIANS

[First_Place]

I'm curious to hear from Michael's students whether or not they have tweaked some of his original concepts, e.g., Fulcrum, PBS, etc., as presented by him in his landmark book Handicapping Magic--and what they are. I know I have. Here's one of a few that I use:

I will not use a shipper's second call time to set the Fulcrum pace in today's race. Period. Especially if the horse is coming from a fast track like Monmouth Park to a slower track like Suffolk Downs, for example, a recent race that I handicapped. You probably could make the adjustment using pars but I haven't (yet) and I'd rather not. In my view, the Fulcrum has to be based upon a paceline from today's track.

Any other tweaks, i.e., improvements that have worked for you, Handicapping Magicians?

FP

[kgonzales]

I use BRIS pace and speed figures to calculate the fulcrum, PBS & PPF numbers. While I know many on the board will argue that there are better numbers, they are much more consistent and interchangeable track to track than the raw times. They've worked very well for me over the last couple of years.

One personal wrinkle: I don't use PPF ratings from slow fulcrum pace races (paceline fulcrum is more than one second slower than today's fulcrum or 10 BRIS pace pts.). Those are often inflated, especially for early & presser types. I think you can do the same with raw times too.
A good example was the BC Turf last week. [REDBOARD ALERT ] Kitten's Joy and Magistretti had huge PPF's from their last race, +15 and +12, but that pace was 22 pts (11lengths) slower than today's fulcrum (plus w/ yielding turf who really knows anything), so I just skipped right by it. The top useable numbers were Better Talk Know (+8), Magistretti (+7) and KJ (+5). This was the only race I wanted to bet on all day and thankfully they didn't take him down. Even with a good number and good bet, racing luck still has to fall your way. I had the win bet and exacta, plus the double with the top PBS and PPF horse in the Classic.

Hope that's useful,
kg

[kingfin66]

It's interesting how two different people can come up with totally different calls on a race when using the same program. I passed the 8th race at Lone Star. I agree with everything you say about the ratings for the race Kristian. The problem I had was that there weren't ratings for some of the horses, so I passed...and missed.

Here are a few "nuances" I use.

- As stated above, I also do not use the PPF from races with slow 2nd call times. I also beware of high PBS ratings from extremely fast paced races.

- High PPF ratings earned on sloppy tracks should be very closely scrutinized.

- I try to use PBS ratings for 6.5 furlong races when they are neutral or pressured as long as there aren't too many track-to-track adjustment issues.

- I do not like to use 5f ratings as I think they are unreliable. The exception is when there are several horses with 5f ratings. 4.5f ratings are even worse. Similarly, I am wary of using ratings for races more than 9f.

- I try to use ratings only up to 1 year old as Pizzolla advocates, but I try to exercise good judgment.

- I never, I repeat NEVER, use turf lines for dirt races.

- I try not to add or elimate many pacelines due to slow paces, off tracks, 1 year timeframes, etc. If I need to work the mouse too much, then I need to pass the race.

- I don't like to play maiden sprints unless I can use the PBS rating. I will make exceptions in exchange for large prices.

- I don't really like to play turf races unless contention is clearly defined (i.e. big gaps) and there is price to be had.

- I try to understand TMM in regard to the track that I am playing. For example, at a track like SA, where speed and chalk rule, I have to look at E or EP horses in all races, including Heavy Pressure races. At a track like Hollywood that tends to play more fairly, I am more willing to look at P or S horses in such a race.

- I don't override the fulcrum unless it ridiculously slow. I have probably overrode (did I invent a word or just butcher the English language) a fulcrum twice in the last 1 1/2 years.

- For Santa Anita 6.5f downhill turf races, I look for horses that have run on the course before, have good ratings and are E or EP. That is if I play this race at all. For any other SoCal turf race, I exclude any turf line that came from a SA turf race.

That's all for now. I will post more as they come to me. None of these are really revolutionary nuances, but they make intuitive sense to me and work pretty well.

[Blackgold]

I rarely change anything or over ride anything.

I simply open the program, see what pops up.

If I see a price, I click on the runner and look at all his lines.

If I see the Fulcrum is going off at a price I look at all his lines also.

If the runner(s) and the Fulcrum's contention prices are high, I consider their numbers to be correct.

I then look at the rest of the runners, one by one, and decide whether or not to use them on an exotic ticket that already has Value Tech selections and the Fulcrum.

If the exotic ticket gets too big, I pass the race.

If the board odds show heavy play that I'm not expecting, can't explain or I can't construct the runner in my already bludging exotic ticket, I pass the race.

Often I will get up, walk away from the computer and one of the races of the several I'm considering. . .well one race just won't leave me alone. . .I then set aside the other races and concentrate on the one that came to me. . .I call it Zendicapping.

Hi,

We do not yet have the advantage of sectional timing in UK.
Could anyone explain what the terms "fulcrum", PBS and PPF mean and what is the logic behind them?

Robert

[kgonzales]

Originally posted by kingfin66
It's interesting how two different people can come up with totally different calls on a race when using the same program.

Just to clarify kingfin66, I do own the Master Magician Software , but I rarely use it anymore. I do apply all the HM numbers and concepts in my handicapping, but use my own software to calculate numbers based on BRIS pace and speed figs. I find my numbers to be much more consistent and accurate, especially PBS in sprints and any dirt race without a fulcrum. Plus I am able to get pretty reliable PPF's from turf marathons (10f +), although they still require a fair amount of judgment and healthy odds. The BRIS pace figs also make it pretty easy to shape races (compared toTMM). Since I have a lot more confidence in my numbers, it makes it much easier to PASS races now. I don't try to make a lot of fine distinctions in my handicapping anymore. If I have 3 short priced horse gapped above a moderate longshot, I usually won't bother. I look for no-brainer bets (like the top turf PPF at 27-1 or really underlaid favorites). I really don't try to force bets anymore (most of the time). Patience is key.
Addressing some other points:
-I set all my fulcrums and windows by hand (numbers are calculated automatically). I actually prefer this as I get a better feel for the race. I can scan the lines pretty quickly to determine if the race is worth looking at more closely.
-I use any 1 LASST excuse (except trouble) or any two of the remaining excuses (except equipment) as reasons to go past a line. I also use 2nd off a layoff bounce and a win in a slow paced race as 2 excuses each (I think Pizzolla talked about these at a seminar)
-The BRIS files have a speed figure par in each paceline which helps in making distinctions in class level excuses when it's not obvious.
-I actually love using PBS from fast pace races, especially if accompanied by a poor finish as long as the number is not completely aberrent.
-I agree on the off track numbers, but I will use them if they're not completely out of whack and I have price. BRIS EP numbers seem very unreliable (inflated) on off tracks.
-I will use lines up to about 1 1/2 yrs old or previous calendar year depending where a big layoff falls.
-I use 42 days as my layoff line (sometimes a little less if there are other reasons to go past). I think 30 days is too generous in form cycle windows
- I rarely even look at turf sprints excepting 7 1/2f (usually only contests or tournaments where I have no choice).
-I try to avoid betting against the pace matchup or shape of the race unless I have a huge price. I love routers cutting back to sprints with good PBS numbers.
- As blackgold mentioned, it's imperative that you understand the betting action in the race. Why is your top number 27-1? Why are they hammering that pig to 3-5? This is not always so easy, but it's usually based on speed figs, perceived class, finish position, trainer/jockey, recency or perceived pace advantage.

Don't know if any of that's news to anyone, but it's served me well.
kg

[First_Place]

No fractional times? Sorry to hear that. I'm sure it's being timed sectionally by teams of clockers just like it was done (profitably) in the U.S. prior to the publishing of the various call times in the Racing Form.

As to your questions regarding the Fulcrum, PBS & PPF ratings, here it goes:

Fulcrum Pace:

"The Fulcrum Pace is the fastest second call time of all the contestants in the race taken from their last race, provided that the race is competitive and not atypically fast for the horse."

"What we're accomplishing with the Fulcrum pace is to get an idea of what second call pace, at a minimum, the horses will need to compete against today."

PBS = Pace Balanced Speed figure (also known as the Pizzolla Balanced Speed figure):

"It is the Speed Rating of the past performance line you are examining, modified by the second call time of that line. The modification is made by comparing the second call time of the race to the Fulcrum Pace of today's race."

PPF = (Projected Power Fraction):

The PPF measures the final fraction of the race taking into account the horse's position at the second call; unlike the more common method of subtracting the second call time from the final time and then adding or subtracting 1/5 of a second for each length gained or lost between these calls. It does more than measure the third fraction, it takes "into account a horse's velocity potential and positional tendencies."

FP

[First_Place]

Gentlemen,

I appreciate reading your responses very much. Thanks for taking the time to write. It has stimulated further thought on this subject.

Here's another thing I do when faced with shippers. Instead of basing my PBS figures on Speed Ratings in that particular race, I use Speed Figures instead to avoid track-to-track SR differences. Sweet and simple, something all you "Magicians" probably figured out before I did. I know Michael doesn't recommend using Speed Figures (because of his contrarian nature) to create his PBS numbers but when faced with this type of scenario, I think it's appropriate.

FP

[Blackgold]

TMM has provided a profitable way for me to take money out of the races.

Others make profits with BRIS, and I download the Ultimate PPs for every card I'm considering.

Others make a living with the Sheets.

And on and on.

The reason we look at all this stuff is, to find Value and when you find Value to have the nerve to pound the windows with both fists and walk away, ticket in hand, and not give it a 2nd thought.

I think I mentioned in another post once in this forum, about another Advantage Play I'm involved in- Blackjack.

One of the leading authors and pros in that arena who has written two excellent books- "Turning the Tables on Las Vegas", in the '70s and more recently "Burning The Tables In Las Vegas,- well he often posts in a blackjack forum something to the tune. . .

And I'm paraphrasing,

"People spend too much time worrying about will this counting system give you a tenth of a percent more edge or will that index play be the correct move in plus whatever count, etc.. . . where the biggest mistakes are made are- when one has the advantage and does not send in the big bet."

That's the thing to do, wait, watch, then pounce and if it doesn't go your way. . .wait, watch and pounce another time. If you have the advantage you will grind upward your bankroll.

[cj]

I don't use the software, but I use a modified version of the LASST method with my own numbers.

I believe La was for Layoff, S for surface, S for structure (distance,) and T for trouble. If any of those were present, he goes to the next line. I believe Layoff is defined as a race immediately before or after a layoff.

I add a second T for positive trainer change, ie, first race for one of the "super" trainers, in which case I'll find the horses best line showing and assume the horse will run better than that one. I also throw in an extra S for "slow paced race" on dirt only, which can make horses figures look lower than they would be normally, especially for PS and S type runners.

So, for me, its LaSSSTT.

First_Place,

Kind of you to provide those explanations.

Some people in UK try to time races from video recordings (very difficult to judge with telephoto camera distortions and close up shots of leading horses only) but there are no obvious teams of people clocking at the actual meetings. Many UK meetings last only one day so it might not be very attractive to be constantly travelling throughout the season. We have been trialling a transponder timing method which measures the times and distances run of individual horses. Also, the TV channels have been superimposing an angled line across the screen to mark each half furlong from the finish in the major races.

I can understand the reasons for the Fulcrum Pace and PBS statistics. We do not understand why USA uses 1/5 seconds per length when your horses run much faster throughout. You lost me on the PPF. Why measure a "potential" when the final section plus lengths behind leader can give the actual accurate average finish velocity of each horse. Why does "positional" data matter - if the horse has excess energy over the others it can win if it can get past the other horses and can handle the last bend at speed? For UK's straight grass tracks then the "old" lengths behind way would seem more logical. Does the method not take all the best bits of past performances which might aggregate to a faster overall time than the horse has ever actually run? (On the basis that a horse can only run at peak speed for 2.5 furlongs in any part of a race).

My interest stimulated, I looked at MP's predictions article for the Breeders Cup - not too good with 0/9. Still, I have ordered to book to be shipped over to find out more.

Robert

[Tom]

For me, it is:
Layoff
Bad jock
Bad trainer
Atypical pace
Turf switch

Labbbats.

[IRISHLADSTABLE]

Bug Boy

Under A mile

Distance

Lasix

Intent

Turf

Early Speed


B U D L I T E

Jimmy

[headhawg]

Originally posted by Tom
For me, it is:
Layoff
Bad jock
Bad trainer
Atypical pace
Turf switch

Labbbats.

Were you drinking Canadian beer when you thought of that, eh?

[Tom]

I was having breakfast, so I must have been...I had corn flakes.