The Official Trump Collapsing Thread

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by highnote

You manufacture here first and make it better.

Why would you care about that if a company off-shore can make it better and cheaper, freeing resources here to do the things that we can do better and allowing us to sell our products and services off-shore?

[highnote]

Originally Posted by Clocker

Why would you care about that if a company off-shore can make it better and cheaper, freeing resources here to do the things that we can do better and allowing us to sell our products and services off-shore?

Well if that is true then why did Trump strong arm Carrier and Ford to keep their manufacturing jobs in the U.S.?

Why did Trump run on a platform about keeping jobs in the U.S.?

Why does he want to make rules that companies will be forced to follow, yet, feels he doesn't have to follow them?

He's a hypocrite until proven otherwise.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by Clocker

Why would you care about that if a company off-shore can make it better and cheaper, freeing resources here to do the things that we can do better and allowing us to sell our products and services off-shore?

Sometimes, it is more important to do the right thing for the long-term good of the country.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by highnote

Sometimes, it is more important to do the right thing for the long-term good of the country.

And you know better than the American public what the right thing is?

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Clocker

And you know better than the American public what the right thing is?

That "line" has been blurred for the last 8 years.....Give it a few months, clarity will soon come back to what is the vision of the "right thing".

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by highnote

Well if that is true then why did Trump strong arm Carrier and Ford to keep their manufacturing jobs in the U.S.?

Why did Trump run on a platform about keeping jobs in the U.S.?

Because he does not know history (e.g., the Hoover administration) and does not understand the down side of protectionism.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Clocker

Because he does not know history (e.g., the Hoover administration) and does not understand the down side of protectionism.

When trade and manufacturing is at the extreme polar opposite of protectionism, any movement towards becoming balanced again, is met with strong opposition from those who benefit financially from the current situation.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

When trade and manufacturing is at the extreme polar opposite of protectionism, any movement towards becoming balanced again, is met with strong opposition from those who benefit financially from the current situation.

Are you claiming that trade and manufacturing are currently at the polar opposite of protectionism?

Hints: US tariffs on Chinese steel can be as much as 500% depending on type. Recent tariffs on imported Japanese trucks have been as high as 25%. The US imposes quotas and tariffs as high as 50% on imported sugar.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/05/18/news/us-steel-china-trade/

[highnote]

Originally Posted by Clocker

And you know better than the American public what the right thing is?

Obviously.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Clocker

Are you claiming that trade and manufacturing are currently at the polar opposite of protectionism?

Hints: US tariffs on Chinese steel can be as much as 500% depending on type. Recent tariffs on imported Japanese trucks have been as high as 25%. The US imposes quotas and tariffs as high as 50% on imported sugar.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/05/18/news/us-steel-china-trade/

Yeah, pick out the exceptions to what I've said, makes for a great conversation...

[HalvOnHorseracing]

What elements of the cost of production are so much less that a company would choose to manufacture overseas? We know it isn't transportation cost. It may be the cost of materials if the raw materials are local to the new location (think of textiles moving from New England to the South), but if you are looking at something like the iPhone, the materials are coming from all over the place so that's not it. If you are looking at cars assembled in Mexico, most of the parts are coming from U.S. companies so local parts availability can't be the answer. Companies are willing to incur much larger transportation costs to manufacture overseas. So what does that leave?

In order for companies to move manufacturing back to the U.S. they either have to find a way to reduce the domestic cost of production or convince shareholders to accept a lower profit margin. You can reduce the domestic cost of production the way Carrier is doing it - increase mechanization. Obviously you would be replacing labor with mechanization so the job creation aspect may be a lot less than you'd want. Even so, it may still be in the company's profit interest to stay overseas.

The Trump plan to assign tariffs to imports, aside from being a bad idea, simply won't work for a myriad of reasons, some of which Clocker has already noted. The theory - change the cost of production to make it cheaper to locate domestically - is the dream of those who know no better. In the end, the tariffs from offshore goods as well as the higher prices associated with domestic companies that move back are paid for by - that's right - domestic consumers. And for those who took an intro to Econ course, higher prices should reduce demand, a trend that would ultimately result in - that's right - laying off workers. Or, if the offshore producers decide to get out of the U.S. market, supply would be short driving up prices, reducing demand and laying off workers.

The key to a good consumer economy is competition. Tariffs will reduce competition. I'd like to know if the same poor consumers will be ok with that outcome?

There has been a lot of talk about regulations being a prime reason for companies moving. I'll be interested to see which regulations are targeted and whether that will make a big difference.

For all those who point to Carrier or Ford, the fact is those decisions were ultimately made a while ago and are really a drop of water in the ocean for those companies. You'll get some small numbers here and there, but any companies moving back will only do so if they can maintain profits to shareholders. I don't know how many companies will fall into that category, but I don't think it will be a huge number.

For those who say give Trump a chance, it is the same as saying I don't believe history (with regard to tariffs) and economics are going to behave as they always have. If the best he's got is strong arming companies and tariffs, I'm not seeing the massive turnaround.

[JustRalph]

Trump is not a hypocrite.

He has said since early on that he produces his stuff overseas because of the poor climate here for business. He specifically answered this question early on about his ties.

This has been hashed over already

[fast4522]

JR is correct, the Obama policy's advantaged business outside the United States to the point of being hostile for those here at home. Investment went to business climates more friendly, Obama's overall belief of wealth redistribution. To Trump this was a direct attack on his family and his empire, there is little doubt why Trump went after Obama as soon as he became President. Running for President Trump tells the world his business and holdings are worth in excess of ten billion dollars, he left counters that then a Mr Trump's wealth is less than half of what he stated as another ploy to get view his tax returns. I am willing to bet that his profits outside these United States will be in excess of ten billion alone. The one caveat to that is that world markets do not crash, doubling growth in the United States will effect the world positively. Like the ultimate CEO if he pulls things off and makes these United States great again his family will be rewarded way way beyond any bean counter could imagine. Just like a CEO who fails there is no reward. Now some of you think something is wrong with that, myself I am rooting for the Trump family as well as these United States.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Trump is not a hypocrite.

He has said since early on that he produces his stuff overseas because of the poor climate here for business. He specifically answered this question early on about his ties.

This has been hashed over already

I don't think the poor climate here is the reason he manufactures overseas, although I'd love to hear what burdensome regulations make it difficult to make ties in America. You're drinking the Kool-Aid if you think that business decision had anything to do with anything other than the cost of making a tie in China or Mexico. Bad business climate is a total dodge.

Yeah he answered the question, mostly with BS. The answer was never any more complex than the fact that it is cheaper to manufacture overseas BECAUSE LABOR COSTS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY CHEAPER, about 97% of textiles are manufactured overseas, and that if Trump wanted to be competitive, he was forced to do the same. This article lays it out.

http://www.factcheck.org/2016/05/tru...he-u-s-a-spin/

[reckless]

Originally Posted by Clocker

Because he does not know history (e.g., the Hoover administration) and does not understand the down side of protectionism.

So I gather the downside of free market globalism is OK then? This part is always ignored when people bash Trump on his trade policies and goals.

The US trade deficit has been grown every year for the past 40 + years ever since the Fortune 500 companies and the local Chamber of Commerce bought off the DC politicians and destroyed our manufacturing industry.

This resulted in the destruction and screwing over of our skilled and respected blue collar wage earner-class and replaced them today with unskilled, basically ignorant laborers from 3rd World nations such as Mexico.

This country is way better off with someone as 'dumb' as Trump is right now, than it's been these past 40+ years with the smarty pants and know-it-alls from the Yale Law School and the Harvard Business School.

(clocker, there was also a world-wide depression in full steam when Hoover instituted his trade tariffs. Though he gets most of the blame, Hoover alone wasn't responsible for the Depression, especially by instituting trade tariiffs. The Federal Reserve had tightened the money supply which cause way more damage to the economy than any tariff.)