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07-11-2013, 08:41 PM
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#196
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Can you try that again in English?
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I get a sense when the top speed or class horse is at risk. With pace I look at the amout of early types and quirin speed points, but calling the pace can be difficult.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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07-11-2013, 10:15 PM
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#197
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Capper Al
I get a sense when the top speed or class horse is at risk. With pace I look at the amout of early types and quirin speed points, but calling the pace can be difficult.
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Sure, it is difficult, and nobody will be right all the time.
I think today was pretty represntative of how the Pace Projector performs:
Race 1: 1-2-3 are 1-2-3 at 1C.
Race 3: 1-2-3 are 2-X-X at 1C.
Race 4: 1-2-3 are 1-2-X at 1C.
Race 5: 1-2-3 are 1-2-3 at 1C.
Race 6: 1-2-3 are 3-X-1 at 1C.
Race 7: 1-2-3 are 2-1-3 at 1C.
Race 8: 1-2-3 are 1-2-X at 1C.
Race 9: 1-2-3 are 1-X-X at 1C.
Out of 8 races, we had the leader right five times and in top three 7/8 times. We had the top three correct 17 out of 24. We also had the top two correct and in order 50% of the time.
3 Races designated Favors Horses On/Near Early Lead
R1: 1-2 horses at 1C finished in reverse order, $45 exacta.
R4: Leader won easily at 7-2.
R7: 2-3 horses early run 1-2, $70 exacta
All the horses above were identified as being on/near the lead.
0 Races designated Hot Pace.
Last edited by cj; 07-11-2013 at 10:16 PM.
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07-11-2013, 10:29 PM
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#198
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I would almost never have this. How often does a horse not in the top 3 surge to the front at the 1/2? Seems pretty odd.
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That doesn't surprise me, I use velocity "ranges", not single velocity figures, so I get a "range" for each of the 3 segments of the race, the ones I posted were assuming their best velocities would be run. The value of my approach is that one can see improving velocities, versus the other runners, in each segment. So, the fact that the 4 was positioned 1st at the 1/2m, only means that he has the potential to do that, not that he will do it. It represents a horse that is not a contender early but has more sustained or late speed than others in the field.
Projections are just that, projections, as you know. Sometimes they work and sometimes they don't, depends on what happens in the running of the race.
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07-11-2013, 10:29 PM
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#199
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 47
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One of my favorite things we're doing with Craig's toolbox is adjusting race fractions (in running lines) for the speed of the track. You guys can tell me if it's been offered in any product before. In our case, the user has the option of choosing the official Equibase fractions OR "adjusted" fractions that take into account how fast or slow the track was that day. Simply click on a running line, and choose adjusted or official fractions. We're still refining the process but it's a really great way to tell if a horse is getting into condition or not--you can see how his fractions compare to recent fractions he ran in other races. Among other uses.
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07-11-2013, 10:37 PM
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#200
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Sure, it is difficult, and nobody will be right all the time.
I think today was pretty represntative of how the Pace Projector performs:
Race 1: 1-2-3 are 1-2-3 at 1C.
Race 3: 1-2-3 are 2-X-X at 1C.
Race 4: 1-2-3 are 1-2-X at 1C.
Race 5: 1-2-3 are 1-2-3 at 1C.
Race 6: 1-2-3 are 3-X-1 at 1C.
Race 7: 1-2-3 are 2-1-3 at 1C.
Race 8: 1-2-3 are 1-2-X at 1C.
Race 9: 1-2-3 are 1-X-X at 1C.
Out of 8 races, we had the leader right five times and in top three 7/8 times. We had the top three correct 17 out of 24. We also had the top two correct and in order 50% of the time.
3 Races designated Favors Horses On/Near Early Lead
R1: 1-2 horses at 1C finished in reverse order, $45 exacta.
R4: Leader won easily at 7-2.
R7: 2-3 horses early run 1-2, $70 exacta
All the horses above were identified as being on/near the lead.
0 Races designated Hot Pace.
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Yeah, I saw all of the races as being either average pace or slow pace, no speed burners today. That doesn't mean there wouldn't be any pace matchups though, which favors later style horses, it just means there were no hot early paces projected. Even in a race lacking in speed, there can still be pace duels that result in those horses fading, and Ps or Ss coming on to win.
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07-11-2013, 10:41 PM
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#201
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarcAtTimeformUS
One of my favorite things we're doing with Craig's toolbox is adjusting race fractions (in running lines) for the speed of the track. You guys can tell me if it's been offered in any product before. In our case, the user has the option of choosing the official Equibase fractions OR "adjusted" fractions that take into account how fast or slow the track was that day. Simply click on a running line, and choose adjusted or official fractions. We're still refining the process but it's a really great way to tell if a horse is getting into condition or not--you can see how his fractions compare to recent fractions he ran in other races. Among other uses.
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Yeah, there are other sources that offer adjusted or non-adjusted options. Mine can be adjusted in a variety of ways, or the adjustments can be turned off. It's up to the user.
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07-11-2013, 10:47 PM
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#202
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,632
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raybo
I agree, but without having the data in a form that allows computer manipulation, makes that tougher to do.
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How many times are you going to post the same thing, albeit using slightly different words each time?
We get your position. No need to keep repeating it...
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07-11-2013, 10:52 PM
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#203
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
How many times are you going to post the same thing, albeit using slightly different words each time?
We get your position. No need to keep repeating it...
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Well, I never got a clear answer for one thing, only a vague one, that didn't really address the question directly.
But, since you are evidently disturbed, by what appears to be something most data providers provide, then I won't mention it again.
I'm sorry if the question was improper.
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07-11-2013, 10:52 PM
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#204
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,632
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
How many times are you going to post the same thing, albeit using slightly different words each time?
We get your position. No need to keep repeating it...
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Not to pile on you or anything, but one gets a sense while reading this thread that this has suddenly become the raybo vs. timeform thread...why is that?
Lots of "mine can be adjusted" and "my figures" and "my this" and "my that..." Aren't there already threads about your software where you do this kind of thing and can continue doing it there, and let those who want to talk about timeform do that here?
Disclaimer: I have no vested interest in this product, other than the fact that they may (hopefully) spend some advertising dollars here one day, and cj is a longtime friend from this board.
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07-11-2013, 10:54 PM
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#205
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,632
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raybo
Well, I never got a clear answer for one thing, only a vague one, that didn't really address the question directly.
But, since you are evidently disturbed, by what appears to be something most data providers provide, then I won't mention it again.
I'm sorry if the question was improper.
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I never said the question was improper. I'm wondering why you keep posting it over and over and over again.
You can contact them directly on their website or PM marc or cj here or get their direct attention any number of ways I'm betting.
Don't put words in my mouth and make others think I told you the question was improper. I never said or even implied such a thing.
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07-11-2013, 10:55 PM
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#206
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Not to pile on you or anything, but one gets a sense while reading this thread that this has suddenly become the raybo vs. timeform thread...why is that?
Lots of "mine can be adjusted" and "my figures" and "my this" and "my that..." Aren't there already threads about your software where you do this kind of thing and can continue doing it there, and let those who want to talk about timeform do that here?
Disclaimer: I have no vested interest in this product, other than the fact that they may (hopefully) spend some advertising dollars here one day, and cj is a longtime friend from this board.
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Again, I stated that if the data could be exported as a data file I would be interested in using the product, as many others who use data files will also probably be. As it is presented, that is not going to happen, and that's our loss.
I'll just quietly step out of this thread.
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07-11-2013, 10:57 PM
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#207
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,632
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raybo
Again, I stated that if the data could be exported as a data file I would be interested in using the product, as many others who use data files will also probably be. As it is presented, that is not going to happen, and that's our loss.
I'll just quietly step out of this thread.
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Geez man, it's in BETA...don't you see the big BETA sign up there? OBVIOUSLY, not all features are in place...and not every feature THAT WILL EVER BE has been developed yet...
I don't know what's up with you or why you have such a huge interest in going at the angle you're going, but it just seems strange...step out or don't step out...whatever...
I will point out that cj has been offering his figures for years and has had no problem getting customers...and all this time, he hasn't offered a CSV export of his numbers and it hasn't hurt him one bit.
Again, we get your position...hopefully, they'll be able to satisfy your needs once they actually get the site past BETA status...
They seem to be talking a fairly accommodating customer game...so I would think they would entertain your suggestions seriously and would look to provide what you're looking for if they think it's something that will be well received by their customer base.
Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 07-11-2013 at 11:00 PM.
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07-11-2013, 11:34 PM
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#208
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Pace Projector
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Sure, it is difficult, and nobody will be right all the time.
I think today was pretty representative of how the Pace Projector performs:
Race 1: 1-2-3 are 1-2-3 at 1C.
Race 3: 1-2-3 are 2-X-X at 1C.
Race 4: 1-2-3 are 1-2-X at 1C.
Race 5: 1-2-3 are 1-2-3 at 1C.
Race 6: 1-2-3 are 3-X-1 at 1C.
Race 7: 1-2-3 are 2-1-3 at 1C.
Race 8: 1-2-3 are 1-2-X at 1C.
Race 9: 1-2-3 are 1-X-X at 1C.
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That's actually very impressive.
here's the Youtube video of the pace projector for anyone who hasn't seen it:
[YT="The TimeformUS Pace Projector
"]ACJTXAxavLE[/YT]
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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07-12-2013, 07:37 AM
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#209
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Sure, it is difficult, and nobody will be right all the time.
I think today was pretty represntative of how the Pace Projector performs:
Race 1: 1-2-3 are 1-2-3 at 1C.
Race 3: 1-2-3 are 2-X-X at 1C.
Race 4: 1-2-3 are 1-2-X at 1C.
Race 5: 1-2-3 are 1-2-3 at 1C.
Race 6: 1-2-3 are 3-X-1 at 1C.
Race 7: 1-2-3 are 2-1-3 at 1C.
Race 8: 1-2-3 are 1-2-X at 1C.
Race 9: 1-2-3 are 1-X-X at 1C.
Out of 8 races, we had the leader right five times and in top three 7/8 times. We had the top three correct 17 out of 24. We also had the top two correct and in order 50% of the time.
3 Races designated Favors Horses On/Near Early Lead
R1: 1-2 horses at 1C finished in reverse order, $45 exacta.
R4: Leader won easily at 7-2.
R7: 2-3 horses early run 1-2, $70 exacta
All the horses above were identified as being on/near the lead.
0 Races designated Hot Pace.
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That's good day at the track. I'm now looking at Belmont's Saturday card if you are interested?
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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07-12-2013, 11:00 AM
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#210
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Capper Al
That's good day at the track. I'm now looking at Belmont's Saturday card if you are interested?
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Sure, but I'll be looking tonight/tomorrow AM, not today.
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