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06-29-2018, 09:06 AM
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#136
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
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Every serious handicapper should probably spend at least a couple of years trying to make their own figures (even for a single circuit) and then comparing them to other sources. Going through that process and discussing the issues with other figure makers would help. It would move people away from making definitive statements about the merits of certain horses based heavily on figures alone and pretty much eliminate all the criticisms of the figure makers. IMO, both would be a positive development.
All the big name figure makers are VERY smart people working their butts off, but it's the nature of figure making that a lot of subjective opinions creep into the figures on top of all the complexities of wind, run up, track maintenance, pace, weather, figure drift, rails, etc.. That means there will be mistakes.
If you keep your expectations reasonable, you'll have less to complain about.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 06-29-2018 at 09:13 AM.
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06-29-2018, 09:11 AM
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#137
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Every serious handicapper should spend at least a couple of years trying to make their own figures (even for a single circuit) and then comparing them to other sources. Going through that process and discussing the issues with other figure makers would probably move people away from making definitive statements about the merits of certain horses based on figures alone and pretty much eliminate all the criticisms of the figure makers. IMO, both would be a positive development.
All the big name figure makers are VERY smart people working their butts off, but it's the nature of figure making that a lot of subjective opinions creep into the figures on top of all the complexities of wind, run up, track maintenance, pace, weather etc..
If you keep your expectations reasonable, you'll have less to complain about.
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You are correct here, make your own figures, or try to match Beyers. Do it for one track or, like I did, concentrated on Louisiana. You will find out how time consuming it is, and how hard it is to come up with a good variant. It took me three years to finally trust my figures enough to bet with them.
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06-29-2018, 09:21 AM
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#138
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Denny
They aren't baseless.
One question you might know the answer to.
Why aren't they Kovitz Speed Figures?
Andy was an English major and probably knows about as much about mathematics as a layman.
Big Andy could at least acknowledge that.
Guy made a nice career off someone else's discovery and stuck his own name on it.
What a guy!
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He did , in his first book.
The people who read to you are not doing a very good job.
Better stick to MY Weekly Reader - give you something realistic to aspire to.
And the body of work since then has been HIS sweat and work.
No matter how good a speed figure is, there will always people like you, far to STUPID to use them or understand them.
Quote:
In case you didn't notice, it's the point of the entire thread.
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The point of this thread has been that are an idiot and a troll.
FAR more than 1 agree on that!
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Last edited by Tom; 06-29-2018 at 09:24 AM.
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06-29-2018, 11:41 AM
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#139
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 621
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A line or two in a book over 30 years ago.
How many people today know that Beyer took someone else's idea and put his name on it?
He could have mentioned the dude's name when he accepted his Eclipse.
Beyer would be little more than a nobody without those speed figures he copied.
They are his legacy.
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06-29-2018, 11:45 AM
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#140
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 621
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If people think I'm a troll, then why read or respond to this thread?
Let it die.
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06-29-2018, 11:58 AM
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#141
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 621
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After signing off last night, listened to Matt Bernier again on youtube to make sure what I said was correct.
Couple of the words he used to describe the Beyers for that California stakes race from last weekend.
"Questionable."
"Inflated"
There's more, listen for yourself if you don't believe me.
Even DRF questions the validity of the BS Figures.
(Wonder if Matt will get a talking to.)
Last edited by Denny; 06-29-2018 at 12:02 PM.
Reason: Clarified and corrected. I really need an editor.
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06-29-2018, 12:39 PM
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#142
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Denny
After signing off last night, listened to Matt Bernier again on youtube to make sure what I said was correct.
Couple of the words he used to describe the Beyers for that California stakes race from last weekend.
"Questionable."
"Inflated"
There's more, listen for yourself if you don't believe me.
Even DRF questions the validity of the BS Figures.
(Wonder if Matt will get a talking to.)
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Just curious, are you employed by the past performance police or are you a horse bettor? It must be the former because as a bettor you would be ecstatic to discover bogus information that would affect the odds of the horses providing valuable betting opportunities.
If all information was perfect it would be difficult if not impossible to find overlays. For many bettors their success is dependent on finding "bogus" information that either understates or overstates a horse's ability.
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06-29-2018, 12:59 PM
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#143
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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I didn't find the spot where he said this. Date and time on video?
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06-29-2018, 01:14 PM
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#144
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 621
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
I didn't find the spot where he said this. Date and time on video?
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It's the recap show from 6/26... Don't remember the exact spot, just listen, you won't miss it.
Here's a link:
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06-29-2018, 01:17 PM
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#145
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 621
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
Just curious, are you employed by the past performance police or are you a horse bettor? It must be the former because as a bettor you would be ecstatic to discover bogus information that would affect the odds of the horses providing valuable betting opportunities.
If all information was perfect it would be difficult if not impossible to find overlays. For many bettors their success is dependent on finding "bogus" information that either understates or overstates a horse's ability.
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I'm with the justice league and the search for truth police.
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06-29-2018, 01:20 PM
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#146
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,822
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Now that industry legends like Matt Bernier and certified geniuses like "Denny" (whose script sounds REALLY familiar, hmmmm….) are questioning Beyer figures, I guess they'll finally be thrown aside and replaced...
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06-29-2018, 01:24 PM
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#147
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,633
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Denny
I'm with the justice league and the search for truth police.
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When are you going to make your first arrest?
Didn't you say you were quitting this website, and quitting T-breds altogether? Weren't you supposed to be hanging out with John Pricci and betting harness?
What happened?
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06-29-2018, 02:57 PM
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#148
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
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Quote:
Originally Posted by woodbinepmi
Heads up everybody, Denny's next thread will be: Jockeys stiffing horses or ALL horses are drugged up!
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Close.
From the SUper Trainers thread.....its the TRAINERS now that are beating him.
Quote:
Listening to the DRF shows on the upcoming weekend races and heard them say that the United Nations at Monmouth has a field of nine - and FOUR are trained by Chad Brown.
But, we don't have to worry. Trainers would never try anything funny.
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Question - did Pricci beat him off with a stick?
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Last edited by Tom; 06-29-2018 at 02:59 PM.
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06-29-2018, 04:09 PM
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#149
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Denny
It's the recap show from 6/26... Don't remember the exact spot, just listen, you won't miss it.
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What's the issue here?
He gave a reason why one could think the race might not be quite as good as it came up while conceding that it was subjective and it was up to you to take a stand one way or the other. That's about as professional and gentle of an analysis as you are going to see. I thought he did a very good job with that post race analysis.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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06-29-2018, 04:18 PM
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#150
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
What's the issue here?
He gave a reason why one could think the race might not be quite as good as it came up while conceding that it was subjective and it was up to you to take a stand one way or the other. That's about as professional and gentle of an analysis as you are going to see. I thought he did a very good job with that post race analysis.
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Beyer gets a lot of flack when he breaks a race out. In this case, I'm guessing he did not. I actually did for a few reasons (last dirt race with turf races on both sides, top two would have been 130+, fast pace, etc), but it wasn't an easy decision.
Last edited by cj; 06-29-2018 at 04:19 PM.
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