Can You Still Make Money In This Game? - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

SpeedyG · 02-07-2010, 05:29 AM

Is it me or has the percentage of short horses that win (especially in N.Y.) has risen? They don't even put it in the form anymore.

Are there too many smart guys in the game now? Is anyone out there making more than a ham sandwich these days?

What do you guys think? I know there's a few sharps around here, interested in your opinions.

Stillriledup · 02-07-2010, 06:48 AM

The players are SO good that the margin for error is incredibly slim. The slimness of the margins is magnified by the excessive takeout.

ManeMediaMogul · 02-07-2010, 07:04 AM

Stillriledup is right.

Short fields also have a bearing on this situation.

From 2001 to 2004 I was pushing about a grand a week through the windows but from then on, it's been about half that. I find fewer and fewer wagering opportunities because short fields mean shorter prices and I don't like to make a major wager unless I'm getting an overlay at 5-1 or more.

Racing's overall product is pretty poor right now. Most cards are dominated by state-bred races and cheap maidens. There are always going to be solid bets to be made but the expression "spot play" has taken on a whole new meaning.

illinoisbred · 02-07-2010, 07:52 AM

My total dollars wagered per year has been falling the last 3 years. A combination of short fields causing less than desirable odds on choices, the introduction of polytrack causing fewer good opportunities the 1st month at Arlington,and conversely the 1st month back at Hawthorne in the fall.

sjk · 02-07-2010, 09:10 AM

I had a good year last year but my win rate was down and average payoff was up compared to all previous years so I think there is still value but it is in the higher odds horses.

ranchwest · 02-07-2010, 09:26 AM

I think the game has always been changing, but in the past 10 years the change has accelerated. The challenge is to change with the game. It's not easy.

For one thing, it is difficult to react to odds. The challenge in this regard is to accurately predict the odds, to get a grip on what factors currently influence the money flow. For me, I prefer to have spot plays that are designed to find profitable plays in multiple plays rather than worrying about the odds on a particular play. I believe it is possible to evaluate "value" over multiple races rather than just a signle race.

The claiming game has changed significantly.

Computer handicapping has changed significantly.

There's always the questions about whether the number of "enhanced" runners is going up or down.

Paramutuel wagering is still about zigging when others zag.

The only way I can be effective is with spot plays, but I don't find as many plays as I once did. Of course, I'm not working as hard at finding spot plays as I once did. For me, I've always had to work really hard to find currently effective spot plays. Right now, I only have one, getting about 2 to 6 plays a week. It's been pretty good so far, so I'm hoping it doesn't dry up any time soon. Even though I'm making a nice profit so far, I don't think I could make significant money on so few plays.

I've also got enough weaknesses in my game to bring me down, but a lot of those I could better control if I worked at it.

acorn54 · 02-07-2010, 09:48 AM

overall the number of horses in an average race has gotten fewer in the last few years and the percentage of favorites that win has risen according to my database.

JohnGalt1 · 02-07-2010, 10:31 AM

My theory--with the economy and the reduced interest in horseracing in general--we are now competing with better handicappers, especially during the week.

Who goes to and bets Hawthorne in February for fun? Not many. Just people like us, who expect to make money.

On summer weekends Aunt Martha and the families that attend once or twice a year betting the grays and on cute horse names add money to the pools with their silly bets for us to take.

An exacta that we bet that pays $25 mid-week may pay $30 on weekends because of the dumb money spread on hopeless horses with cute names.

Another example--a six horse stakes race that all can win. But put one in an allowance race and it has a better chance to win.

We used to be that stakes horse competing in allowance races--now there are fewer allowance horses.

Trotman · 02-07-2010, 11:40 AM

I have to agree with you all here,the game is changing and for me spot play is about it and is usually exotics. Back in the day I used to like the mid week cards and avoided the crowds of weekends,now like John Galt 1 said I go for the
weekend card hoping first timers help me on price.

raybo · 02-07-2010, 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SpeedyG

Can you still make money in this game?

Yes.

classhandicapper · 02-07-2010, 12:10 PM

I think there are fewer overlays, but at the same time you should always be improving and expanding your game to try to offset the improvement of the crowd. I feel like if I knew 15 years ago what I know now, I'd be crushing the game, but I still get similar results with a slightly altered approach.

therussmeister · 02-07-2010, 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think there are fewer overlays, but at the same time you should always be improving and expanding your game to try to offset the improvement of the crowd. I feel like if I knew 15 years ago what I know now, I'd be crushing the game, but I still get similar results with a slightly altered approach.

I think there are overlays in virtually every race; certainly every race with at least seven betting interests, and most with six.

I very rarely play New York, and never California, so that might influence my thoughts on this.

Overlay · 02-07-2010, 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by therussmeister

I think there are overlays in virtually every race; certainly every race with at least seven betting interests, and most with six.

As you imply, I don't think that we'll ever reach the stage where the public sends every horse in every race off at the correct fair win odds (not to mention the value possibilities of exotics).

ranchwest · 02-07-2010, 01:35 PM

johngalt1, that's a good post -- especially the part about the changes in allowance races (not to minimize the rest of the post).

raybo · 02-07-2010, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Overlay

As you imply, I don't think that we'll ever reach the stage where the public sends every horse in every race off at the correct fair win odds (not to mention the value possibilities of exotics).

Correct!! In the WPS pools, and Exacta/quinella pools, and maybe the trifecta pool, the player will have to become more and more "value" oriented than they are now. In supers, not so much but you still will have to look at the odds spreads to determine if you're getting value, vs hit rate, or not.