Louisiana Derby

[Wiley]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

If the pace is hot enough and the race falls apart at the top of the stretch Givemeaminit and Lone Sailor and My Boy Jack seem like they could be involved in the stretch run.

Dalllas Stewart seems to have one of these long shots close in the stretch and upset a trifecta in a prep or a triple crown race at least once a year. Maybe it just seems like that, but it would in no way surprise me. This is a big race for guys like Stewart and Amoss

Track playing pretty fair it looks like. Good Samaritan came from the clouds to run down mid packer Hollywood Handsome in the NO Handicap.
Amoss wins Oaks with former claimer, pretty weak field though. He is looking for the double in the LA Derby, which he has never won.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Wiley

Track playing pretty fair it looks like. Good Samaritan came from the clouds to run down mid packer Hollywood Handsome in the NO Handicap.
Amoss wins Oaks with former claimer, pretty weak field though. He is looking for the double in the LA Derby, which he has never won.

That would be a good payout.

As expected, Noble Indy is the wise-guy horse and is 2/1 early. He'll be favorite or co-favorite with My Boy Jack.

I like my tickets with the 8 and 2, but I hope the 8 gets enough pace to close into.

[Tom]

If the stays above 5-1, he is a bet.

[Robert Fischer]

all look pretty good in the post parade

jack is bucking around, but no real problem


the 3 marmello is a big son of a gun


5 retirement fund is a lot taller than I thought from watching him on the replays. Not a big deal, but notable, at least to me.

7 snapper looks like he's in good condition

[Mulerider]

Originally Posted by Tom

If the stays above 5-1, he is a bet.

I have a win bet on the

[GMB@BP]

That was unreal...think this will be a highly rated race

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

That was unreal...think this will be a highly rated race

Thought for sure Noble Indy was fading to a meaningless and distant 3rd or 4th. Gutty.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Thought for sure Noble Indy was fading to a meaningless and distant 3rd or 4th. Gutty.

Given the pace it would have been hard to blame him.

My Boy Jack hung badly, and that big move is going to suck a lot of people in next time but someone had to close given the pace.

[storyline]

Originally Posted by storyline

LA derby

2 Noble Indy adds blinkers

9 My Boy Jack should be closing fast in the stretch

Play is 2-9 x's box

Use other closers underneath in tri's and super

There isn't a P5 so I'll play the P4 starting in the 8th
1-5 / 1-6-8-9 / 1-4-8 / 2-9

Blinkers moved the winner up as I alluded to the other day.

Get the win $$
lose the x's
lose the straight super ticket 2-9-8-4
lose the p4

[Robert Fischer]

results 2-8-9-4

exacta for $5 = $185
superfecta for 10cents = $137.16
returned $322.16. Bet $127.40. Won $194.76

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

[img]

Wager Strategy:
I will start with a 'double key' using both #8 LONE SAILOR and #2 NOBLE INDY in a superfecta;

1st+2nd = 2,8/2,8/all/all =$11.20
1st+3rd = 2,8/all/2,8/all
1st+4th = 2,8/all/all/2,8
2nd+3rd = all/2,8/2,8/all
2nd+4th = all/2,8/all/2,8
3rd+4th = all/all/2,8/2,8
$11.20 x 6 = $67.20

next, some suitable wagers for both keys;
dime super = 127/12679/all/*8* = $8.40
dime super = *2*/1679/all/*8* = $2.80
50cent tri = 127/12679/*8* = $6
50cent tri = *2*/1679/*8* = $2
$1 exacta = 12679/*8* = $5
$2 exacta = *2/8* = $2
$2 exacta = *2*/16789 =$10
$20 win on *#8* LONE SAILOR = $20
$2 exacta box = 8/4 = $4
= $60.20

TOTAL for all wagers = $127.40

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Given the pace it would have been hard to blame him.

My Boy Jack hung badly, and that big move is going to suck a lot of people in next time but someone had to close given the pace.

Ha. That is the exact conversation I just had. isn't getting 10 panels after hanging like that with an absolute dream setup.

[f2tornado]

Had the 2 but not the 8. Props to those here who called that one moving up. Final time was weak. Final 3/8 was 38.8, also weak. No top of ticket Kentucky Derby plays from this race for me. Amusingly, Dallas Stewart finished 4th again. In years past his 4th place horse would blow up the Kentucky Derby tote board.

[Wiley]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

That would be a good payout.

As expected, Noble Indy is the wise-guy horse and is 2/1 early. He'll be favorite or co-favorite with My Boy Jack.

I like my tickets with the 8 and 2, but I hope the 8 gets enough pace to close into.

Good play Robert. Needed the 8 to hang on. Surprised the 2 comes back to win it, worried more about the 9 running by in the stretch, who flattened out. I am sure Graham thought he had him beat too. Another LA derby loss for me...

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Had the 2 but not the 8. Props to those here who called that one moving up. Final time was weak. Final 3/8 was 38.8, also weak. No top of ticket Kentucky Derby plays from this race for me. Amusingly, Dallas Stewart finished 4th again. In years past his 4th place horse would blow up the Kentucky Derby tote board.

Wasnt it 2/5ths slower than the older horses ran with a much stronger pace?

[trifecta]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

results 2-8-9-4

exacta for $5 = $185
superfecta for 10cents = $137.16
returned $322.16. Bet $127.40. Won $194.76

Nice going, Robert.