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Old 03-16-2018, 02:07 PM   #16
storyline
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I think there are better here but I will probably use this one on the bottom of a couple of dime super bets. I like seeing Mr.P on top. Many of the prep upsets have featured a Mr. P top line. It also seems like middling horses at Fair Grounds pop elsewhere. Nothing to dislike on the J/T side either.
I think High North is capable of running a 99-100 Beyer tomorrow which puts him right in the mix.

The biggest question for me is how tight are the screws on Solomini, if he's my horse I might only have him at 90% or so which makes him vulnerable.

From a wagering standpoint I like Magnum Moon on top with others behind in the supers.

For tomorrow's race I have them rated beginning from top-down and there isn't much daylight between them, this is a very solid field and no one should discount the depth of field here imho.







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Old 03-16-2018, 02:43 PM   #17
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We're on the same wavelength. That's almost identical to my sorting. No boxcar payoff with that result but not straight chalk either.
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Old 03-16-2018, 05:31 PM   #18
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Solomeni has not raced since december of last year. That makes him vulnerable. High North has improving figs so I guess that makes him the "wise guy" horse...Cox at Oaklawn in a route is mega dangerous. He has about a 30% win rate at the track. I would put Magnum Moon as a key but I dunno about Saez at Oaklawn. He won 3 G3s this year, but they are all at Gulfstream and not anything over a mile. I think I'd take Lanerie over him? (Zing Zang is a big hunk of gorgeous). The only "given" is that 1 of Asmussen's will make it into the tri since he has 3 entered, is one of top trainers at OP and has OPs top rider on one and Ortiz on another.

I get more conflicted every time I look at this race.
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Old 03-16-2018, 05:44 PM   #19
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Title Ready has that Phipps breeding on the bottom-always a good sign
So does Zing Zang.
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Old 03-16-2018, 06:09 PM   #20
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So does Zing Zang.
I like Zing Zang but think he needs a 1 1/8. I think Solomini goes which may force the Title ready to go also. Title Ready 2nd time blinkers. Curlins Honor stretching out from 6F-wouldn't shock me to see him go as well. Magnum Moon may get a sweet trip saving ground. Sporting Chance may get hung out to dry. I like High North even though I don't like Midnight Lute's routing generally. Like Husker said, Cox high percentage trainer, 2nd off, 3rd dam threw Eliza, odds should be good.
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Old 03-16-2018, 06:43 PM   #21
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I like Zing Zang but think he needs a 1 1/8.
That is why I'm hoping he gets in the derby gate. But that come from behind style from post 9 is gonna be tough at OP.

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Curlins Honor stretching out from 6F-wouldn't shock me to see him go as well.
Did you see his auction price? Over a mil

Cappin this on "performance" is kinda a lost cause. None of these have accomplished a whole lot, which is why it's a good race......see what shakes out.

Last edited by clicknow; 03-16-2018 at 06:46 PM.
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Old 03-16-2018, 07:03 PM   #22
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That is why I'm hoping he gets in the derby gate. But that come from behind style from post 9 is gonna be tough at OP.



Did you see his auction price? Over a mil

Cappin this on "performance" is kinda a lost cause. None of these have accomplished a whole lot, which is why it's a good race......see what shakes out.
I'm not overly confident about this race, bets will probably be minimal. If Zing Zang can just run 3rd here and I think he can hit the board in the Ark Derby-that should be enough to get him to the derby

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Old 03-16-2018, 08:16 PM   #23
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early publichandicapper odds

Oaklawn Park, Race 10, 6:15 PM CT, Saturday, March 17, 2018
$900,000.00
Grade II Stakes
1 1/16 miles
Main Track
3 year-olds

Total Number of Picks On This Race: 665

Program # Picks Horse PH Odds
1. 66 Title Ready 7 - 1
2. 82 Curlin's Honor 5 - 1
3. 173 Solomini 2 - 1
4. 88 Magnum Moon 5 - 1
5. 16 Higher Power 34 - 1
6. 6 Pryor 93 - 1
7. 126 Sporting Chance 7 - 2
8. 37 High North 14 - 1
9. 15 Zing Zang 36 - 1
10. 52 Combatant 9 - 1
11. 4 Bode's Maker 140 - 1
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Old 03-16-2018, 08:31 PM   #24
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Combatant, best Beyer at the track, classic pattern of a layoff - two good race, both tops, then a regression. Ready for a new top. Ala Point Given.
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Old 03-16-2018, 09:10 PM   #25
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race starts with SOLOMINI.
'His' race is better than anyone here can run. He has flaws. He can be soft on the second turn. He can get stuck on the left lead. However, he can do all that on a hot pace and then somehow not get tired like the others and win the gallop-out.
No value in this guy, and I don't trust him as a 'lock' or near-lock. Still plenty of fun left in the race and a chance to gamble that you can beat him if that's what you want.

COMBATANT is probably the 2nd most likely winner. 4th choice on the ML, so there could be some value. He's not going to run a triple digit Beyer, so he will need SOLOMINI to hang.

CURLIN'S HONOR is my long shot. He's 'too slow', but he stretches out here and hopes to trip-into/inherit contending position. Fundamentally sound, and he has a willing response in the lane.

Not high on or in terms of value, but you have to respect them underneath. MAGNUM MOON has upside, and has a long shot chance of being a Grade 1 type of horse who runs a big race. It's more likely that he will not make an impact. As a fan I want to see him circle the field and draw off.

ZING ZANG is the kind of horse you consider keying on the bottom of a Tri or Superfecta, and building backwards. In a race that could be short on value, he adds another option.
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Old 03-16-2018, 09:50 PM   #26
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race starts with SOLOMINI.
'His' race is better than anyone here can run. He has flaws. He can be soft on the second turn. He can get stuck on the left lead. However, he can do all that on a hot pace and then somehow not get tired like the others and win the gallop-out.
No value in this guy, and I don't trust him as a 'lock' or near-lock. Still plenty of fun left in the race and a chance to gamble that you can beat him if that's what you want.

COMBATANT is probably the 2nd most likely winner. 4th choice on the ML, so there could be some value. He's not going to run a triple digit Beyer, so he will need SOLOMINI to hang.

CURLIN'S HONOR is my long shot. He's 'too slow', but he stretches out here and hopes to trip-into/inherit contending position. Fundamentally sound, and he has a willing response in the lane.

Not high on or in terms of value, but you have to respect them underneath. MAGNUM MOON has upside, and has a long shot chance of being a Grade 1 type of horse who runs a big race. It's more likely that he will not make an impact. As a fan I want to see him circle the field and draw off.

ZING ZANG is the kind of horse you consider keying on the bottom of a Tri or Superfecta, and building backwards. In a race that could be short on value, he adds another option.
You write the following contradictions - Not high on in terms of value, then - respect underneath, then - has upside, then - has a longshot chance of being a grade 1, then - will not make an impact, finally - as a fan I want to see him circle the field and draw off.

You're a little hard to take serious and I'm being kind. Not once do you give the reader any justification for your random opinions of any horses anywhere in the post.

I suspect after the race you'll boldly type - as a fan I was ecstatic at watching him draw away from the field .

Robert, please tell me you had a few "pops" before you posted

Last edited by storyline; 03-16-2018 at 09:52 PM.
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Old 03-17-2018, 12:06 AM   #27
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You write the following contradictions - Not high on in terms of value, then - respect underneath, then - has upside, then - has a longshot chance of being a grade 1, then - will not make an impact, finally - as a fan I want to see him circle the field and draw off.
Although I don't like the tone, nor 100% trust the sincerity of your post, I will be a good sport and try to expound upon what wasn't a very clear piece of writing.


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Not high on or in terms of value, but you have to respect them underneath.
I expect and to be underlays. Although I expect them to be underlays, they offer enough hit percentage to use in a vertical exotic (trifecta, superfecta). It's almost impossible to make an exotic wager with only overlays, and even if you could do that, you wouldn't want to, as your hit% would be so low as to reduce your play to randomness. These are the types of horses I reluctantly include.

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MAGNUM MOON has upside, and has a long shot chance of being a Grade 1 type of horse who runs a big race.
He has upside in the sense that he has 'potential'. There is some unknown about the horse. He's trained by a top trainer. He's built like a classic distance horse (10f). He's shown some talent. This race has maybe 1 or 2 Grade 1 horses. Maybe none. I'd say Magnum Moon has maybe a 5%? chance (a long shot chance) to be Pletcher's poor-man's-Arrogate.


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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
It's more likely that he will not make an impact.
(An extension of the previous comment.) It is more likely that never contends for the win in the Rebel than it is that he will blossom into the top 3yo.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
As a fan I want to see him circle the field and draw off.
Separating my cold horseplaying opinions from simply being a fan of the sport; I'd love to see this horse defy my expectations and be a great one. The more the merrier.

Good night. Good luck if you play.
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Old 03-17-2018, 11:11 AM   #28
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Good to see the racing form again, sure has been a while.



~


Baffert’s Solomini looks tough here, but as mentioned has been out a while and may be vulnerable. He appears the class of the race but is behind Sporting Chance on the EFH.


The race and works is telltale. On 2/19, Sporting Chance runs in the Southwest, has trouble, regroups for show. Meanwhile, two days earlier on 2/17@ SA, Solomini works 5fl in 59.2H. On 2/24, Solomini works again, 7fl in 1:24.4H (nice endurance); three days later @ OP Sporting Chance works 4fl in 48.1B (nice tightener); on 3/4, Solomini works again, this time 6fl in 1:11.2H; one day later Sporting Chance goes 8fl in 1:41.2B (nicer endurance; is Lukas tracking Baffert?) Finally, on 3/10, Solomini goes 5fl in 59H; two days later Sporting Chance goes 4fl in 47B. Outstanding set of works by both colts however, Sporting Chance is breezing while Solomini is hand ridden. All things considered the conditioning edge goes to Sporting Chance.


Long story short, Sporting Chance is higher or equal in class compared to Solomini, but is in better condition. IMO, the key is the jock switch. With Johnny V up, Lukas has a Hall of Famer, class and condition. If Sporting Chance can sit tight on a fast and balanced track, should be a hoss’ race!


Finally, I would be remiss without mentioning Sporting Chance is a Dual Qualifier with the lowest DI / CD in this group, yet Solomini is also a DQ, but with higher DI / CD. Pedigree and performance will always matter. We’ll see how it shakes out in the Reb’.


Should be a fun race to watch! Get em’ Johnny V!




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Old 03-17-2018, 12:15 PM   #29
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You're a little hard to take serious and I'm being kind. Not once do you give the reader any justification for your random opinions of any horses anywhere in the post.

I suspect after the race you'll boldly type - as a fan I was ecstatic at watching him draw away from the field .

Robert, please tell me you had a few "pops" before you posted [/QUOTE]

1. It is not his responsibility to justify anything to you or anyone else - they are HIS opinions and many of us here both enjoy reading them and look forward to them

2. Roberts NEVER redboards. If you took the time to read some his posts you would know that before you make an ass of yourself by suggesting it.

3. Good thing we are not at the track, or YOU would probably get a few "pops."
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Old 03-17-2018, 02:23 PM   #30
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Combatant, best Beyer at the track, classic pattern of a layoff - two good race, both tops, then a regression. Ready for a new top. Ala Point Given.
Sorry to mush ya buddy but I feel the same way. He's ready to move forward today...8-1 ML is just fine with me
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