Trump signs tariffs

[Tom]

While those scumbags are on vacation, use the $1.8 billion to build a wall around DC, where it will do some immediate good.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by reckless

Too bad you didn't ask me what I thought on 11-3-16 when the Dow was 17,500 or so when I made the call of the Century. You could have made a ton on money. It is all right there in the Financial Room of OT.

I'm not much of a trader.

I'm more of a value oriented guy. I buy things I think are are cheap and sell things I think are expensive. But I have to tell you, I've made around 6-7 meaningful mistakes in my investment life. All but 2 were selling things I thought were expensive. If I could go back into my records and figure out what I would have if I never ever sold a share of anything I ever owned, I know I would have way more money. I just don't know how painful the total would be.

I've been in a conservative position for a couple of years. I still own some stocks, but it's mostly one position I've owned since the late 80s, a bunch of gold mines I've been accumulating on dips for the last couple of years, and one telecom company I bought a few months ago.

If this market tanks, I'll feel some pain, but it will be worth it because I have more dry powder in terms of dollars and percentage since I started. I'd love to start putting it to work.

[Clocker]

Trump announced a few exemptions from steel tariffs. He said that countries not on the exempt list could apply for an exemption.

By one account, those exemption account for about 80% of US steel imports. The major impact of the tariffs will now be on Russia, Turkey and Japan.

In a presidential proclamation published late on Thursday, Trump said he would suspend tariffs for Argentina, Australia, Brazil, South Korea, Canada, Mexico and the European Union, the U.S.’s biggest trading partner, until May 1, 2018 as discussions continue.

After May 1, Trump would decide whether to permanently exempt the countries based on the status of talks, the White House said in a statement.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN1GZ0ET

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Clocker

Trump announced a few exemptions from steel tariffs. He said that countries not on the exempt list could apply for an exemption.

By one account, those exemption account for about 80% of US steel imports. The major impact of the tariffs will now be on Russia, Turkey and Japan.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN1GZ0ET

90% of what's going on is posturing and most of it is being misreported by people with political/economic agendas or that have no idea what they are talking about.

I would wait until the end to see if ends up with a backtrack, a trade war that does damage, an improvement to our trade deficit as a percent of GDP, or more importantly renegotiated trade deals.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

90% of what's going on is posturing

Does anyone except Trump and his fans think that the Chinese don't know this?

[PaceAdvantage]

So much for the tariff market crash

[elysiantraveller]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

So much for the tariff market crash

There aren't any tariffs. Despite what media outlets are saying from both sides. Nothing is actually happening at the moment but a the United States citing grievances and giving the Chinese 6 months to appeal and cooperate.

This is sound economic policy.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

So much for the tariff market crash

Concerns were alleviated by early morning WSJ article - reported behind the scenes maneuvering to prevent further escalation. We shall see.

[elysiantraveller]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

Concerns were alleviated by early morning WSJ article - reported behind the scenes maneuvering to prevent further escalation. We shall see.

My understanding thus far is the administration has noted unfair practices and are using tariffs as leverage for terms. A timeframe of 6 months for negotiations before anything actually comes to fruition is what I believe is on the table right now.

The Chinese for their part at least seemed receptive to talks.

The caps on Chinese investment here though doesn't make any sense to me.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by elysiantraveller

My understanding thus far is the administration has noted unfair practices and are using tariffs as leverage for terms. A timeframe of 6 months for negotiations before anything actually comes to fruition is what I believe is on the table right now.

The Chinese for their part at least seemed receptive to talks.

The caps on Chinese investment here though doesn't make any sense to me.

There are trade complaints filed with the Commerce Dept and its respective entities on a fairly consistent basis.

On trade, the Trump admin has taken three notable actions:

1) Stopped the Chinese from circumventing high tariffs on steel by shipping it to Vietnam, "adding value," then dumping it onto the US market. This happened in December 2017, I believe. It's consistent with actions taken by GWB and Obama, both of whom oversaw Commerce Departments that looked to protect US steel producers.

2) A few weeks ago, Trump announced Section 232 tariffs of 25% on all steel imports (based on national security concerns). Over the past few weeks, this action has been watered down, exempting a large number of countries. Tariff-exempted countries may still be subject to quotas (e.g., the deal announced with South Korea today).

3) Last week, Trump announced plans to place tariffs on primarily IP-related products coming out of China. The formal list is forthcoming.

Item 3 coupled with item 2 started investors to worry about an all-out trade war. This morning the WSJ reported that high-level Chinese and US officials are working behind the scenes to avert such a scenario. Whether a tariff has taken hold or not isn't overly relevant to the stock market, if investors believe it will happen in the near to intermediate future.

[incoming]

Originally Posted by Clocker

Does anyone except Trump and his fans think that the Chinese don't know this?

Question....If Prez Trump would renegotiate all trade agreements across the board and manage to cut our trade deficits by 25% would that be a good thing?

[elysiantraveller]

Originally Posted by incoming

Question....If Prez Trump would renegotiate all trade agreements across the board and manage to cut our trade deficits by 25% would that be a good thing?

Trade deficits don't exist in a vacuum. You have to have something to trade. We have dollars.

This is simple macro-economics stuff.

Simply put we don't make enough stuff they want or could easily make for themselves.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by elysiantraveller

Trade deficits don't exist in a vacuum. You have to have something to trade. We have dollars.

This is simple macro-economics stuff.

Simply put we don't make enough stuff they want or could easily make for themselves.

And the dollars come back into this country as investments. That's why China holds over $1 trillion of US Treasury debt. And why so many German and Japanese car companies have built plants here, creating thousands of good jobs for American workers.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by incoming

Question....If Prez Trump would renegotiate all trade agreements across the board and manage to cut our trade deficits by 25% would that be a good thing?

Negotiating trade agreements for Trump means negotiating tariffs. Tariffs are taxes paid by consumers. The Trump campaign admitted that Trump's proposed tariffs would increase the cost of living for the average citizen by 15%. How is that a good thing?

Trump claims that would bring back manufacturing jobs in the US. There is no evidence to support that. America manufactures more than it ever did, with fewer manufacturing jobs than ever. We lost a lot of manufacturing jobs over the last few decades, and 85% of them were lost to automation, not to moving off shore.

[incoming]

Originally Posted by Clocker

Negotiating trade agreements for Trump means negotiating tariffs. Tariffs are taxes paid by consumers. The Trump campaign admitted that Trump's proposed tariffs would increase the cost of living for the average citizen by 15%. How is that a good thing?

Trump claims that would bring back manufacturing jobs in the US. There is no evidence to support that. America manufactures more than it ever did, with fewer manufacturing jobs than ever. We lost a lot of manufacturing jobs over the last few decades, and 85% of them were lost to automation, not to moving off shore.

I agree that the negotiations will center around tariffs but only on the export side. The dynamics of the tax cuts on business and tax payers should increase USA's leverage, we will be larger consumers. Is my thinking valid?