But Whygod?

[KingChas]

"After the Santa Anita Derby, I had Sweet Catomine evaluated when she was in the barn of John Shirreffs," owner and breeder Marty Wygod told The Blood-Horse Wednesday. "Based on what the veterinarian said, I have decided to retire her and breed her to A.P. Indy."

"I wanted to retire her while she was sound."
Marty Wygod-Bloodhorse

Help, I'm so confused!

It's all about money. What he was saying is: She's worth more as a broodmare than as a race mare. He doesn't want to risk:

1) A freak accident that would require that she be put down.
2) Her possibly faring poorly in future races, thus downgrading her value as a broodmare.

Let's look at the math: The price tag on foals and two-year-olds in-training can be in the millions. Let's assume SC drops one foal per season (year), for the next 15 years. At $3 million per foal (not out of line, since the prices will probably keep going up), that's $45 million, minus stud fees and expenses.

Now let's look at the other side of the coin: racing. These things can happen:

1) She races another 2 years and wins everything in sight. She might win $5-6 million. Then she retires to being a broodmare. She's lost two seasons, or $6 million, which balances her earnings. Now the value of her foals might go up a little. If they're worth another million each, that's another $13 million, which we'll round up to $15 million. They've gotten $60 million, a net of $15 million over retiring her

2) She races and breaks down at some point. They make from $0-5 million, or a net loss of $40 to $45 million over retiring her.

3) She races and doesn't turn out to be as good as she's now thought to be. She might win $1-2 million---but her foals are now worth a lot less each. Say $1.5 million each. 13 of those total $19.5 million, plus her earnings, which we'll round up to $22 million total. They have a net loss of $23 million over retiring her.

In other words, racing her vs. retiring her will either be plus $15 million, minus $40-45 million, or minus $23 million.

It's obvious what any businessman would do, and like it or not, it's a business to most of these people.

[bdhsheets]

What in the world are you smoking?

How many yearlings/2yo's are sold for $3 mill??? Those that do are perfect specimens. Are all the Sweet Cats gonna be that? Doubt it. Many of the super fillies don't produce much for whatever reason. What if the initial foals can't run 6 panels in 1.15? Her foals will be worth squat. You can guarantee that she'll be barren once or twice; might have foals with deformities etc., etc.

Money in the breeding business is with the stallions.

[JPinMaryland]

Ehrrrr. SOmething is off a bit here, but I dont think your that far off.

Mares dont usually drop 15 offspring do they? And each colt wont be worth $3 mill. That hasnt happened ever. What is the average mare produce? 6-8?

Are they all colts? SOme are filllys. Do the filllys also fetch $3 million?

So there seems to be something off there. Also you can get insurance against breakdowns. This should mitigate some of the loss on that possibility. As you said, it's a business, well insurance is exactly that this meant for.

SHe could make say $2-4 million over the next two seasons, so it's not such easy call as you make it.

You are also making assumptions about selling each colt as a two year old in training or whatever. That is also unrealistic, I think, but I've already gone past my limit of knowledge.

[lsbets]

Her first three foals will sell for over a million each, that's probably pretty safe to say. Then there will be a race record of offspring to look at, and the next foals will be partly judged based on what their older siblings have done, not just Mom, so if she sends three to the track who never win anything, you can bet the value of the rest will go down.

[Suff]

Originally Posted by lsbets

Her first three foals will sell for over a million each, that's probably pretty safe to say. Then there will be a race record of offspring to look at, and the next foals will be partly judged based on what their older siblings have done, not just Mom, so if she sends three to the track who never win anything, you can bet the value of the rest will go down.

An opinion.

A Mare's Ideal age for Top Notch Off Spring is between 6 and 8 YO.
This Filly is a baby herself still. Her first few foals figure to be underwieght and underdeveloped...and for that matter... There is no gaurantee she can even produce a LIVE FOAL... Still born's are Higher % in Younger Mare's.

This issue with SC is just ugly. The thing to do or what they should have done is just gone under cover. No interviews, No barn switch's, no retirement announcements.... Just shut thier mouths for 90 days....and hope a headline or two took attention away from them....

The train is off the tracks, and crashing through town.

[depalma13]

When she doesn't get in foal, the odds are very strong against her not getting in foal this year, she will probably be sent back to racing later in the year. She was "retired" so Wygod can try to save face.

[JPinMaryland]

Originally Posted by depalma13

When she doesn't get in foal, the odds are very strong against her not getting in foal this year...

Use of double negative very confusing here. Are you saying she is LIKELY to get in foal? That's what it reads.

ALso what the hell does this mean: "When she doesnt get..."

I get more confused the more I look at this. Can you please rewrite this?

[depalma13]

Okay, how about this. The odds are she will not get in foal this year. She still is too hyped up from racing and teh the sheds close at the end of June. When/if she doesn't take, she will most likely be returned to racing in the fall.