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Old 10-17-2018, 09:15 AM   #46
biggestal99
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Originally Posted by mikekk View Post



Wouldn't touch him at all at 9-5, but I can see it happening.

First start with trainer 20% with a 2.47 ROI with the drop in class.


The horse numbers are right there. 2 of his last 4 Beyers were mid to high 60's



this was a sweet spot for the 4.


9-5 Yikes. I'd want better than that



I wasnt on the exchange Monday but I suspect he went off 5-2 or so there.


I would higher however. would have passed the race myself.


Allan
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Old 10-17-2018, 10:04 AM   #47
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IMO...it wasn't the "public", per say, who made this horse the 3-2 choice in this race. Horses with mediocre speed figures and nondescript running lines don't get the overwhelming betting support of the "public"...especially when these horses figure to be in last running position during the early part of a sprint race. I doubt that a high lifetime-best off-track speed figure could account for such betting action...especially when it was pretty obvious that this horse was no longer the horse that it once was.

If this horse had won at odds of 3-1...then I wouldn't have bothered to start this thread. But the horse was the overwhelming favorite in a competitive race...and I thought this oddity was worth mentioning on this board, if only as an indication that the "smart money" don't just rely on the figures and the replays in order to make their selections.
That was my point in the other thread, that kind of got sidetracked into other discussions on late odds or on odds movement in general.

If a horse takes significant (vying for favoritism?) $money, and you don't fully understand why, then if you proceed with a wager, you should view it as a dice roll (whether you include the horse, or whether you stick to your guns). A horse like that could be the best in the race, or he could be a total bum whose past form and dip into conditional clm triggered irrational action. The crux is whether or not you understand the why. So, if you thought he was a 3/2 horse, you'd pass (no value). If you didn't know why, you'd either pass or consciously make a recreational dice roll. Or, if you understood why the 4 was taking money, yet strongly disagreed, you'd have a prime play.
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Old 10-17-2018, 11:59 AM   #48
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Damn dude, you need to shut the hell up....I've got a fist full of red-cards, doesn't change anything. What happened to being polite and moving on?...You're full of shit and a phony lying ass, that's what happened.
The internet is indeed a strange ****ing place.

RR, you are a strange dude sometimes...blow ups out of nowhere...unpredictable and chaotic as always...and nasty as hell sometimes on top of it all.

I agree...way out of line.
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Old 10-17-2018, 12:07 PM   #49
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The internet is indeed a strange ****ing place.

RR, you are a strange dude sometimes...blow ups out of nowhere...unpredictable and chaotic as always...and nasty as hell sometimes on top of it all.

I agree...way out of line.

Good morning to you, too....
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Old 10-17-2018, 02:43 PM   #50
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My memory sucks so I can't recall what kind of history you have with bobphilo, but operating just off this thread alone, you have excuse.

even if you have a history, totally uncalled for

It amazes me what people think they can get away with on here.

My fault, obviously...but it needs to be said regardless.
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Old 10-17-2018, 02:59 PM   #51
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Old 10-17-2018, 03:18 PM   #52
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My memory sucks so I can't recall what kind of history you have with bobphilo, but operating just off this thread alone, you have excuse.

even if you have a history, totally uncalled for

It amazes me what people think they can get away with on here.

My fault, obviously...but it needs to be said regardless.
Let me ask you a question:

In a different thread here, Cj asked a question, wondering if the William Quirin handicapping research would have held up if it depended on thousands of races...instead of the hundreds that it sometimes relied upon. And I answered Cj by revealing certain disparaging information about William Quirin which I know for a FACT to be true. And this caused bobphilo to unprovokingly attack me by claiming that I am some sort of archaic handicapper, who clings to outdated handicapping methods...and can't recognize a "scientific research" when he sees one. Was THAT not "uncalled for"? You know me here...and you've read what I have submitted to this board over the last 11 years. Do I strike you as the sort of "archaic handicapper" who needs to take handicapping lessons from the 'bobphilos' of the handicapping community? Do I need bobphilo to teach me about "pace-handicapping"...as he presumed to do in that other "pace-pattern" thread which he started here? If bobphilo and I got involved in a handicapping contest...could it be that he is under the impression that he would WIN?

Last edited by thaskalos; 10-17-2018 at 03:22 PM.
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Old 10-17-2018, 03:34 PM   #53
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claiming that I am some sort of archaic handicapper, who clings to outdated handicapping methods...and can't recognize a "scientific research" when he sees one.
You've always been one of the good handicapping minds here. Sometimes 'disregard' is the best policy to wild claims such as those.
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Old 10-17-2018, 03:36 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
My memory sucks so I can't recall what kind of history you have with bobphilo, but operating just off this thread alone, you have excuse.

even if you have a history, totally uncalled for

It amazes me what people think they can get away with on here.

My fault, obviously...but it needs to be said regardless.
So.....Let's see what we've got here, I've gotten TWO red-cards(overall total of 5) and now TWO public scoldings from you, and to a much lesser extent, CJ.....We can now throw out any preconceived notion that I'm one of the "Chosen Ones" on this site.

Glad we can finally put that to rest, along with this whole episode with an inept poster, who I actually took it easy on. Guess I'd be banned for life if I had really given it to him...
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Old 10-17-2018, 04:06 PM   #55
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
Let me ask you a question:

In a different thread here, Cj asked a question, wondering if the William Quirin handicapping research would have held up if it depended on thousands of races...instead of the hundreds that it sometimes relied upon. And I answered Cj by revealing certain disparaging information about William Quirin which I know for a FACT to be true. And this caused bobphilo to unprovokingly attack me by claiming that I am some sort of archaic handicapper, who clings to outdated handicapping methods...and can't recognize a "scientific research" when he sees one. Was THAT not "uncalled for"? You know me here...and you've read what I have submitted to this board over the last 11 years. Do I strike you as the sort of "archaic handicapper" who needs to take handicapping lessons from the 'bobphilos' of the handicapping community? Do I need bobphilo to teach me about "pace-handicapping"...as he presumed to do in that other "pace-pattern" thread which he started here? If bobphilo and I got involved in a handicapping contest...could it be that he is under the impression that he would WIN?
Hmmm, I don't think I've been back to that thread to be honest.

I see now I have been, but I don't see that part where you revealed information about Quirin. Is that in another thread?

Last edited by cj; 10-17-2018 at 04:13 PM.
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Old 10-17-2018, 04:18 PM   #56
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
My memory sucks so I can't recall what kind of history you have with bobphilo, but operating just off this thread alone, you have excuse.

even if you have a history, totally uncalled for

It amazes me what people think they can get away with on here.

My fault, obviously...but it needs to be said regardless.
Thank you - I think. I don't know what you mean by saying that RR has an excuse for his behavior based on this thread. I did report one of the pace figures incorrectly for the race, which cj even said did not change the analysis, which I acknowledged, as well as apologizing for any misunderstanding it may have caused as well. However it was RR who first began the personal insults to which I responded in kind.

In any case I do appreciate you acknowledging there was no excuse for his taking off and attacking me personally. In terms of my past history, you will see that from my occasional past disagreements with you and others, that while I can argue my position strongly, I have also tried to be personally respectful in arguing my position . You can check with cj on that.

Frankly, I am NOT amazed at "what people think they can get away with on here". With RR bragging that all his red cards do not keep him from behaving the way he does, his punishments have obviously been too weak to be deterrents. When I owned and moderated a Yahoo group on horse racing I had a policy that any personal attack would receive a warning (yellow card). Repeat offences would earn the perpetrators a banning (a red card). As a result the discussions were always civil. I'm not telling you that you should be just as strict but merely pointing out the results of different policies.

I often have expressed views that are contrary to tradition and some interpret this criticism of their sacred cows personally and respond with personal attacks for which they experience few real consequences. As a result, myself and others may become more reluctant to express these opinions publicly and even consider leaving altogether. This can only hurt the board.

For example, you can ask cj about how my questioning of conventional methods of pace analysis led to a study he is doing which may change the way TFUS adjusts final figures for pace patterns. Cg, has thanked me for this personally but one individual used how I discovered this as an excuse for public personal attacks.

I'm merely suggesting for you to consider that stricter penalties as deterrents for this unacceptable behavior would make for a more civil discourse and less occasions for amazement at what people think they can get away with here.

Last edited by cj; 10-17-2018 at 04:20 PM.
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Old 10-17-2018, 04:21 PM   #57
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I think PA meant to type no excuse and left out the no.
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Old 10-17-2018, 04:26 PM   #58
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Let me ask you a question:

In a different thread here, Cj asked a question, wondering if the William Quirin handicapping research would have held up if it depended on thousands of races...instead of the hundreds that it sometimes relied upon. And I answered Cj by revealing certain disparaging information about William Quirin which I know for a FACT to be true. And this caused bobphilo to unprovokingly attack me by claiming that I am some sort of archaic handicapper, who clings to outdated handicapping methods...and can't recognize a "scientific research" when he sees one.
Nice way to pile on with a lie That is not correct. I never said that you are an archaic handicapper. What I did say was that some archaic handicappers were resisting modern scientific studies. If you wish to identify yourself as such, that is your characterization, not mine.

Last edited by bobphilo; 10-17-2018 at 04:37 PM.
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Old 10-17-2018, 04:28 PM   #59
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I think PA meant to type no excuse and left out the no.
Thank you for clearing that up. That makes a big difference.

Last edited by bobphilo; 10-17-2018 at 04:37 PM.
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Old 10-17-2018, 04:33 PM   #60
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Thank you - I think. I don't know what you mean by saying that RR has an excuse for his behavior based on this thread. I did report one of the pace figures incorrectly for the race, which cj even said did not change the analysis, which I acknowledged, as well as apologizing for any misunderstanding it may have caused as well. However it was RR who first began the personal insults to which I responded in kind.

In any case I do appreciate you acknowledging there was no excuse for his taking off and attacking me personally. In terms of my past history, you will see that from my occasional past disagreements with you and others, that while I can argue my position strongly, I have also tried to be personally respectful in arguing my position . You can check with cj on that.

Frankly, I am NOT amazed at "what people think they can get away with on here". With RR bragging that all his red cards do not keep him from behaving the way he does, his punishments have obviously been too weak to be deterrents. When I owned and moderated a Yahoo group on horse racing I had a policy that any personal attack would receive a warning (yellow card). Repeat offences would earn the perpetrators a banning (a red card). As a result the discussions were always civil. I'm not telling you that you should be just as strict but merely pointing out the results of different policies.

I often have expressed views that are contrary to tradition and some interpret this criticism of their sacred cows personally and respond with personal attacks for which they experience few real consequences. As a result, myself and others may become more reluctant to express these opinions publicly and even consider leaving altogether. This can only hurt the board.

For example, you can ask cj about how my questioning of conventional methods of pace analysis led to a study he is doing which may change the way TFUS adjusts final figures for pace patterns. Cg, has thanked me for this personally but one individual used how I discovered this as an excuse for public personal attacks.

I'm merely suggesting for you to consider that stricter penalties as deterrents for this unacceptable behavior would make for a more civil discourse and less occasions for amazement at what people think they can get away with here.

SIMPLY ASTONISHING.....NOT A CLUE.....GOOD GOD HAVE MERCY ON YOUR SOUL....
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