What is driving the betting these days...

[cj]

Everyone says it is speed figures, but I think it has turned back to trainers, especially when there is a change. A lot of races these days are, sadly, more about the people than the animals in my opinion.

[Robert Fischer]

trainers
class
running lines
speed figures

[GatetoWire]

Originally Posted by cj

Everyone says it is speed figures, but I think it has turned back to trainers, especially when there is a change. A lot of races these days are, sadly, more about the people than the animals in my opinion.

Agree. The value IMO is a horse running a top race without a flashing red light saying I'm ready to win.
For me these situations happen due to trainer changes or a specific trainer pattern.

A close second is track bias. Gold rails and bet backs.
I have done very well betting back horses from Cigar Mile day at Aqueduct that had no chance that day due to the way the front end played.
Several horses have won or hit the top 2 at nice prices.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

trainers
class
running lines
speed figures

I agree, with the following clarification:

Class - running lines - speed figures are highly correlated, so it is probably not an oversimplification to narrow down the factors to just connections and speed figs...

[lamboguy]

bad trainer's certainly gets you something to think about before you bet. i try to rate different races and how the horse ran during that race. if there are 2 horses out of that race i usually bet the longer one. i do it over and over again, and i don't lose that much. there was a day when i won playing that way, but not in the last 10 years.

i still win betting 2 year old maiden races, but i am not as good as i used to be.

[Stillriledup]

I think its a combination of horses who look good on paper and the human element. Trainers are WAY overbet, its just a name on the program and once the horse is led out to the track, who trains the horse is moot at that point.

Look at today's first at Fair Grounds. The 4 horse won the race, and shows a PP line where the 7 beat her by 3 lengths and yet, because Amoss claimed the 4, she went off 9-5 and a horse who beat her last time by 3 lengths, went off at 9-2. This time the public was right, but a lot of times, they'll blow up something so simple and just bet the human and disregard the horse.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I think its a combination of horses who look good on paper and the human element. Trainers are WAY overbet, its just a name on the program and once the horse is led out to the track, who trains the horse is moot at that point.

Look at today's first at Fair Grounds. The 4 horse won the race, and shows a PP line where the 7 beat her by 3 lengths and yet, because Amoss claimed the 4, she went off 9-5 and a horse who beat her last time by 3 lengths, went off at 9-2. This time the public was right, but a lot of times, they'll blow up something so simple and just bet the human and disregard the horse.

That is the thing though, those things are right way more often than wrong when it comes to a change. I'm not saying they aren't overbet, but you can also make a lot of bad bets going against them.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by cj

That is the thing though, those things are right way more often than wrong when it comes to a change. I'm not saying they aren't overbet, but you can also make a lot of bad bets going against them.

True, it depends on the situation. Maybe its different with a trainer change to the greatest trainer in the game right now, its possible i offered up a bad example, i think knowing when a human matters is a pretty big key to handicapping, sometimes the public will just make a mistake and overvalue a human.......maybe a first time Amoss is a much stronger human situation than Russell Baze having to choose between 2 equal horses for 2 top barns and the public overreacts to Russell's pick, that's a different situation than first time Amoss.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

True, it depends on the situation. Maybe its different with a trainer change to the greatest trainer in the game right now, its possible i offered up a bad example, i think knowing when a human matters is a pretty big key to handicapping, sometimes the public will just make a mistake and overvalue a human.......maybe a first time Amoss is a much stronger human situation than Russell Baze having to choose between 2 equal horses for 2 top barns and the public overreacts to Russell's pick, that's a different situation than first time Amoss.

Yeah, that is a much different situation. I'm mostly talking trainers here, and when the change is perceived as positive, it almost always draws a top rider.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by cj

Yeah, that is a much different situation. I'm mostly talking trainers here, and when the change is perceived as positive, it almost always draws a top rider.

Right, a lot of it is hand in hand when you have a horse in a fancy barn, you get a fancy jock so its usually a combination of jock and trainer that's bet down.

[classhandicapper]

IMO, trainers are taking a ton of money in certain situations.

I think speed figures are taking more money than other factors in general.

If you handicap with no figures at all, it becomes clear that the crowd is separating horses that look similar on class/form using speed figures. You'll also see it among horses that were badly beaten in very fast races. They don't look good on paper, but they get bet anyway because they are fast.

That's not to say that class, consistency etc.. don't take a lot of money also. Horses that look similar on speed figures will get separated on class, consistency, ability to get loose etc..

Part of what makes it tough to notice is that there are multiple sets of speed figures in the market and sometimes they disagree by many lengths.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

Class - running lines - speed figures are highly correlated, so it is probably not an oversimplification to narrow down the factors to just connections and speed figs...

I like to use all 4 in my explanation. In that order. Class correlates to speed figs, but the public will bet a "
"positive-drop" with even lesser numbers all day. That was the reason I didn't keep simplifying.

trainers
class
running lines
speed figures

Those are the 4. In that order.

Trainer is more important than the other 3. There's a fancy scientific word that I don't feel like googling for this thread that represents the "Trainer" when compared to this group.

Trainer + any of the other 3 is worth more than the other 3 combined.

[cj]

I prefer alchemist, stole that from somebody, Doug Salvatore I believe.

[Robert Fischer]

Now any thread about "what is driving the betting" would be silly if we didn't include the psychological drives.


GREED FEAR ASSOCIATION etc.. etc...


we are playing against Greedy cowards and sheep, just like ourselves.

When a 40% trainer has a horse that fits the class and has pretty running lines, other players get greedy.
They become temporarily insane.
They want $3.40 on a $3.80 horse and they want it NOW. You have other's in the same pool going after no-hopers because they are greedy for a jackpot.

You have sheep betting because the horse is 3/5 on the board.

You have whales knowing that they want 3.40 so bad that they make the pools open at 1/9 so that the public will be too scared to bet a 1/9 shot, and they will be "compulsive" and bet some stiff, and then by the time the race is over that 1/9 pays $3.40.

You also have "Association"
A horse like Chrome in the Belmont gets bet far below his fair price.
Name horses. Beloved horses. Horses on rare occasions get bet for their Name in the media broadcast and their accomplishments - not for their probability in today's race.

You also have dynamics that are harder to understand.
Maybe the 4th race 2/5 shot went down in flames??? Maybe the same track or a simulcast??
Now the 5th race - the horse that should be 2-1 is 6/5. The "public" chases loses just like the individual. It's just hard to identify.

in general it's those 4 things in order
Trainer (more)
Class
Running Lines
Speed Figs

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by cj

I prefer alchemist, stole that from somebody, Doug Salvatore I believe.

I'm just getting this. Funny.