The only one absolute truth toward profitability

[Dave Schwartz]

We're on the same page (raybo too) - this isn't like poker where we can avoid the whales;

Actually, we can. Some tracks have higher rebates. Those tracks will (logically) have a greater percentage of the pool from whales.

I actually find that as my rebates go up, my profitability goes down.

It is precisely your example: Avoiding Phil Ivey is a good idea. LOL

I am not saying that the game is not beatable at a high-rebate track. I am saying that the level of competition is lower, and therefore easier to beat at a track with lower rebates.

Specifically, I find that when my rebate hits 4% in the win pool, my $Net falls significantly unless my contenders are in opposition to the tote board.

To use the poker example again (which is a good one, I think), one could theoretically avoid bumping heads with Phil Ivey by not playing when he is in the hand. Maybe another way to say this would be, "If you are going to stay in the game against Ivey, you better make sure you've really got it."

In horse racing, we could avoid the whales by playing where they typically do not. Where is that? Longshots. By their nature, they do not wager on longshots so much, otherwise, they wouldn't be longshots, would they?

[Maximillion]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Actually, we can. Some tracks have higher rebates. Those tracks will (logically) have a greater percentage of the pool from whales.

I actually find that as my rebates go up, my profitability goes down.

It is precisely your example: Avoiding Phil Ivey is a good idea. LOL

I am not saying that the game is not beatable at a high-rebate track. I am saying that the level of competition is lower, and therefore easier to beat at a track with lower rebates.

Specifically, I find that when my rebate hits 4% in the win pool, my $Net falls significantly unless my contenders are in opposition to the tote board.

To use the poker example again (which is a good one, I think), one could theoretically avoid bumping heads with Phil Ivey by not playing when he is in the hand. Maybe another way to say this would be, "If you are going to stay in the game against Ivey, you better make sure you've really got it."

In horse racing, we could avoid the whales by playing where they typically do not. Where is that? Longshots. By their nature, they do not wager on longshots so much, otherwise, they wouldn't be longshots, would they?

I find that as the size of the field goes up, I have a better chance at profitability.....provided its a field of at least some "quality".

[dkithore]

Jeff P:

I am impressed by the quality of feedback here. Very practical suggestion. Worth putting into practice. Thanks to Jeff, Thask, Raybo, CJ and PA for making such discussion possible.

DK

[dkithore]

I can not omit Al's provocative choices of topics. He makes coming here interesting. Thanks.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by dkithore

I can not omit Al's provocative choices of topics. He makes coming here interesting. Thanks.

Thanks. I do get overly excited. The game is just fun.

[Boston Tom]

Also would like to thank Jeff P, Thask, DL, CJ, Dave and Raybo. Lots of great discussion in this thread. Wish I had known you guys when I was a young man and first started going to the track. I would have looked forward to the conversation as much as the races.

[pondman]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Thask,

DL can certainly speak for himself (and I have no doubt that he will).

I don't think that is what he is saying. The losing player will always lose. The less he bets, the better off he will be.

I think he is (basically) saying that a guy who thinks he is going to start with a $200 bankroll and make a living from it is just dreaming. Fortunes are not made with $200 investments.


Dave

When you ask many players why they didn't play the horse to win, they respond I'm not very good at it. What makes this person think they should be in the game?

If a person is given the option of choosing 100 horses a year, using their best tools and knowledge, and they can't make a profit at any level, they shouldn't be in this game. Giving them a million dollars to blow and 1000s of races to choose from isn't going to improve their abilities.