3 year old of the year

[classhandicapper]

The Pacific Classic result opens the door to an interesting debate if Arabian Knight can beat Arcangelo in the Breeder’s Cup. He’ll have home court advantage.

[bisket]

I wouldn’t count Geaux Rocket Ride out just yet. I was thinking of Mike Smith’s conundrum going into the race. Rocket had another horse doing his dirty work for him in the Haskell. Does Smith pressure Arabian Knight or get into a gallop behind him and take him on in the stretch. Knight folded under pressure at 1 1/8 mile will he soften enough with the extra furlong without early pressure. Knight did get some pressure, but was alone late. I think it was better for Smith’s wallet to figure that out in this race as opposed to The Classic. Smith might just have hook up early on the backstretch because I don’t see Knight being easy to pass. That race was slow late yesterday. A repeat would make them easy pickings for Arcangelo in the stretch.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The Pacific Classic result opens the door to an interesting debate if Arabian Knight can beat Arcangelo in the Breeder’s Cup. He’ll have home court advantage.

Southwest / Pac Cl / BC Cl would be a very weak resume imo, but I guess that is racing these days.

[bisket]

Maybe the Triple Crown should be May, July, October? Lol

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

Southwest / Pac Cl / BC Cl would be a very weak resume imo, but I guess that is racing these days.

Absolutely, but which 3yo would have a better resume? At the very least he’s in the conversation.

[Spalding No!]

Not really sure why anyone would be ga-ga over this year's Pacific Classic. It was one of the worst renewals ever (if not THE worst).

It ran identical to this year's Preakness, another terrible merry-go-round race where the blessed winner is unlikely to ever win another race of consequence.

The only horse to take out of there at the top level is Geaux Rocket Ride & that's if they sit on him until next year. Nevertheless, if he does continue on to the Classic, Mandella historically is very successful at SA BCs & Geaux Rocket Ride has actually run at Santa Anita unlike Arabian Knight.

Of course, this year's BC Classic may also be the worst renewal ever but Arcangelo if he makes it to the race he is clearly in superior form to anything else. Horse has broken sharp & been loaded down the backstretch before blowing his last 2 races apart at the top of the stretch. If he comes with anything close to that at Santa Anita, he has the North American horses over a barrel.

Having said that, all bets are off if Mandella & Dutrow drink the Kool Aid & decide their respective horses need blinkers "to find a couple of extra lengths" or whatever excuse those other poor excuses for top horsemen embarrassed themselves with so far this year.

Maybe Mott will add blinkers to Cody's Wish & Elite Power since they clearly need a boost after losing their last starts...

[rastajenk]

I've been thinking it could be a Cat Thief/Budroyale/Golden Missile kind of year, 'cause nothing really impresses and anything could happen. At this point, anyway...

[Geno_Gino]

Don't forget Two Phil's, who even though he LOST, [supposedly] "still ran the best race" in this year's Kentucky Derby.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Not really sure why anyone would be ga-ga over this year's Pacific Classic. It was one of the worst renewals ever (if not THE worst).

It ran identical to this year's Preakness, another terrible merry-go-round race where the blessed winner is unlikely to ever win another race of consequence.

The only horse to take out of there at the top level is Geaux Rocket Ride & that's if they sit on him until next year. Nevertheless, if he does continue on to the Classic, Mandella historically is very successful at SA BCs & Geaux Rocket Ride has actually run at Santa Anita unlike Arabian Knight.

Of course, this year's BC Classic may also be the worst renewal ever but Arcangelo if he makes it to the race he is clearly in superior form to anything else. Horse has broken sharp & been loaded down the backstretch before blowing his last 2 races apart at the top of the stretch. If he comes with anything close to that at Santa Anita, he has the North American horses over a barrel.

Having said that, all bets are off if Mandella & Dutrow drink the Kool Aid & decide their respective horses need blinkers "to find a couple of extra lengths" or whatever excuse those other poor excuses for top horsemen embarrassed themselves with so far this year.

Maybe Mott will add blinkers to Cody's Wish & Elite Power since they clearly need a boost after losing their last starts...

When I read this before The Belmont I though maybe Arcangelo might have some of that same talent his father Arrogate possessed. Scratching my head…. Did he gallop or breeze?

https://www.drf.com/news/belmont-sta...ibextid=Zxz2cZ

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Not really sure why anyone would be ga-ga over this year's Pacific Classic. It was one of the worst renewals ever (if not THE worst).

.

I agree that the CA horses are not a strong group. But generally, I don't think many of the Eclipse voters are thinking in terms of who they would bet out of the race or subjectively evaluating what they thought of the field. That's for handicappers. Voters are mostly just looking for Grade 1 wins, putting extra weight on the BC, Derby, a couple of other major races, and maybe looking at head to head if it's really close.

Arcangelo would almost certainly be the favorite over anyone out of the Pacific Classic, but if he did get beat by Arabian Knight I don't think he'd have a lock on the title.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by bisket

When I read this before The Belmont I though maybe Arcangelo might have some of that same talent his father Arrogate possessed. Scratching my head…. Did he gallop or breeze?

The odd thing is that the author Mike Welsch left off the 1/2 mile split in his summary of the horse's work & yet that is the distance the official clockers credited the horse with having breezed: a bullet 1/2 mile in :48 4/5.

When I saw a sharp half mile only 4 days before the race I had flashbacks to Funny Cide's disastrous 5-furlong work right on top of his failed Belmont effort.

But to read Welsch's comments & splits, the horse had a fairly steady stamina-building work.

I guess that's the value of clocker's reports; threw me off anyways just looking at the published worktab, as I questioned the wisdom of working the horse sharply so close to the race...

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Arcangelo would almost certainly be the favorite over anyone out of the Pacific Classic, but if he did get beat by Arabian Knight I don't think he'd have a lock on the title.

I don't think Arcangelo has a lock on the title even now.

What if Reincarnate wins the Penn Derby & the BC Classic?

He'd have the Sham/Los Al Derby/Penn Derby/BC Classic resume.

Then there's Red Route One with his potential Bath House/WV Derby/BC Classic triad...

[bisket]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

The odd thing is that the author Mike Welsch left off the 1/2 mile split in his summary of the horse's work & yet that is the distance the official clockers credited the horse with having breezed: a bullet 1/2 mile in :48 4/5.

When I saw a sharp half mile only 4 days before the race I had flashbacks to Funny Cide's disastrous 5-furlong work right on top of his failed Belmont effort.

But to read Welsch's comments & splits, the horse had a fairly steady stamina-building work.

I guess that's the value of clocker's reports; threw me off anyways just looking at the published worktab, as I questioned the wisdom of working the horse sharply so close to the race...

When past performances came out the only work listed was this one, not the previous work with Javy aboard. I wondered if maybe they were galloping and came up on a horse, and he was going well enough, they just went to the rail and let him loose. It’s hard to read the tea leaves. I was looking for some indication he was a fast cruiser like Arrogate, and I took this incident as an indication he might be. Lol I could have just been lucky with that assessment.

[burnsy]

After the Travers , there’s no doubt that Arcangelo is a fast cruiser . He was so much the best too . Four wide , putting them away in short order . Disarm got the perfect trip and wasn’t really close . Watching the replay Mage couldn’t keep up with this horse for even a quarter of a mile even though he tried . So, up to this point it seems like beating Mage is no big deal. The Preakness was a fairy tale and I don’t know how good that Haskell or Pacific race really were. And if you couldn’t beat Mage . Good luck beating this horse .
If it were today it would be a lock . But it’s done on the track and everyone should realize anything can happen in this game . These are animals not machines .

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by burnsy

After the Travers , there’s no doubt that Arcangelo is a fast cruiser . He was so much the best too . Four wide , putting them away in short order . Disarm got the perfect trip and wasn’t really close . Watching the replay Mage couldn’t keep up with this horse for even a quarter of a mile even though he tried . So, up to this point it seems like beating Mage is no big deal. The Preakness was a fairy tale and I don’t know how good that Haskell or Pacific race really were. And if you couldn’t beat Mage . Good luck beating this horse .
If it were today it would be a lock . But it’s done on the track and everyone should realize anything can happen in this game . These are animals not machines .

I wouldn't put much stock in Mage's Travers effort. He didn't show up & is likely toast for the remainder of the year. If you look back, he had to be bum rushed into the Derby, going from maiden winner to Derby prospect to Derby winner in short order. They botched it by skipping the Belmont hoping they could save something for the last half of the year. Should have started in the Test of Champions to perhaps lock down the 3yo title before be resting until he was 4.

Furthermore, IMO he seems like more a miler type as he has a tendency to hang at middle distances. They ought to target the Met Mile as a major goal next year if he reappears.