Claiming level for cheap claimers

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by TrifectaMike

Stats maybe different for races with multiple last time wiinners vs races with a single last time winner.

Mike (Dr Beav)

good point.

[Linny]

Flakes uses lots of "dated" conditions which don't show dates in the Form. There is a class hike betweem "dated" NW1 since and NW2 since... The latter condition allows in more current form. Also Flakes conditions as read in the DRF don't reflect the time of the condition. There's a huge difference between non winners of a race going back to the beginning on 2011 (chronic losers for nearly 2 years) and non winners for 6 months.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Linny

Flakes uses lots of "dated" conditions which don't show dates in the Form. There is a class hike betweem "dated" NW1 since and NW2 since... The latter condition allows in more current form. Also Flakes conditions as read in the DRF don't reflect the time of the condition. There's a huge difference between non winners of a race going back to the beginning on 2011 (chronic losers for nearly 2 years) and non winners for 6 months.

I use this angle.If you look at the horse's record you can usually figure it out or simply by the figures of the race.I had a horse at Beulah go up in class in a nw3y-current year and run a moderately decent figure,drop into a n3y-2 years and win at 25-1.I guess handicappers thought the outrun line and n3y tag proved it worthless especially after the horse had run under nw1y,nw2y-both current year and losing.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Tom

This is my Beyer Par for older males at Tampa Bay - still a work in progress, but the data is based on decent sample sizes over 5-7 years.

This gives me a good idea where winners of each class might have the best shot next time out.

Good stuff Tom.I've noticed some of the same things about Tampa's class,mainly how nice of an edge that subtle drop from 10nw3l to 8nw3l can be.

[grant miller]

you have to remember the trainer too in cheaper tracks (finger lakes ect..) alot of certain trainers horses win big moving up till someone claims it and, cant find out the key (or gas)! J.M.O.

[luisbe]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

The big question with claimers is are they fit. With a recent win within 30 days, the horse should be fit. Will they run the horse is another question. The class move up offers resistance. But if the higher class horses are not fit, then the horse moving up stands a very good chance. Perdicting these can be very profitable.

RE cheap claimers form reminds me my best hit and my best "future" mistake.
Same claiming level both races.
I played a .20 sfc at Woo on 11-28-08 with three key horses on top and several behind for around $40 with this result: Attachment 01.
The same horse raced at the same level 8 days later, I played a sfc of about the same amount without using it for the top 2 places, the result? See attachment 02.

[luisbe]

Sorry, it wasn't the same level but from low open claiming to AlwN2L other than.