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Old 03-23-2024, 11:22 PM   #1
mountainman
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Join Date: Nov 2003
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Comparative Strike-Rates of First-Call Leaders

My (subjective) bias notes on the two ovals contend that Mahoning's surface more often plays against early speed than does Mountaineer's (main) track. And that, to a lesser extent, the inner portion of the Mahoning strip more often amounts to a disadvantage.

I wonder if some resourceful poster might pull up applicable stats that speak to my observations. Could, for instance, someone post what percentage of first-call leaders go on to win, say, 6-furlong and 5 1/2 furlong races at each of the two tracks, and perhaps throw in some impact-values for posts 1 & 2 at those commonly carded sprint distances?
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Old 03-24-2024, 08:15 AM   #2
sjk
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TRACK win pct POST CountOfPOST
MNR 31.22% 1 474
MNR 31.85% 2 314
MNR 33.56% 3 289
MNR 33.73% 4 249
MNR 34.27% 5 248
MNR 35.93% 6 167
MNR 30.70% 7 114
MNR 34.09% 8 44
MNR 29.63% 9 27
MNR 75.00% 10 4


MVR 32.90% 1 465
MVR 28.53% 2 382
MVR 27.69% 3 325
MVR 33.56% 4 292
MVR 32.01% 5 278
MVR 29.56% 6 203
MVR 32.56% 7 172
MVR 31.13% 8 106
MVR 23.68% 9 38
MVR 42.31% 10 26
MVR 28.57% 11 7
MVR 40.00% 12 5

Mark,

Here are some stats since 1/1/20. Looks like MNR runs about 3% higher overall on first call winners at those distances.
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