Juan Carlos "the magician" Guerrero strikes again!

[thaskalos]

A very educational race took place yesterday (Monday) at Philly Park, which also illustrates one of the main problems that our favorite sport faces in the current era.

In Monday's 6th race, the 9/5 favorite was a horse named Hunter's Score, who was usually a consistent sort - often finishing in the money while running "Beyers" in the 52-57 range.

When he made his return from a 3 month layoff this September the 3rd, however, something seemed terrible wrong with the horse. At odds of 3-1 in a field of 7,500 claimers, he didn't run a lick - without a visable excuse - braking 6th by 2, tiring to last by 11 at the (slow) half mile, and finishing the 6 1/2 furlong sprint 9th and last, beaten by 22 lengths...while earning a "Beyer" of 4.

It would have been easy to conclude that something seriousy wrong had transpired with Hunter's Score, causing us to throw him out as a serious contender of a subsequent race...but something very interesting took place which demanded a closer look; the horse was claimed by trainer "extraordinaire" Juan Carlos Guerrero.

In his next start, the horse showed up in the same 7,500 claiming tag as before, and this time ran an improved but still lackluster 4th, beaten by almost 7 lengths, without showing a hint of his decent early speed...going off at 7-2 odds.

And this brought us to yesterday's race, where the horse again faced the same class of horses, while looking no better than a 3rd or 4th choice in this field of 11...but this time his odds were an unappetizing 9-5! I looked to see if there was a compelling argument that could be made for this horse - which I may have missed - but the horse was clearly not the best horse in the race...and in no way did he deserve the play he was getting on the tote board.

It was a classic "underlay" situation which we always used to prey upon for our wagering profits, but - in the current era - the "supertrainers" like Juan Carlos Guerrero have become the hunters...and WE have become the prey.

Hunter's Score won by 6 1/2 lengths...laughing every step of the way...and paying $5.80 to win.

[sammy the sage]

Exactly WHY my money goes down ONLY on larger paying stakes races...they're ALL GIVING a 110% then!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[lamboguy]

here is the bottom line, if the game was just about reading pace figures and sheet numbers, you and everyone else would all be millionaires. what you pointed out is one of many reasons why this game is a challenge. i know that what you are trying to say is that juan carlos guerreo is using some type of miracle drug that is automatically making the horse go faster. what you are thinking is that he is fooling the test barn's on a consistant basis. i have no idea what he is doing or what he is using. what i do know is that some vets charge as much as $400 to pre-race a horse, where i was accustomed to only paying about $100. those bills come from some of the most respected vets in the industry. when the bill comes i am told that there is no list just "pre-race". personally i really don't think there is a drug in this world that exist's that once administered is the same as rocket fuel. there are drugs that can ease the soreness that a horse has and drugs that help the horse breath better. most of them are going to be caught at the test barn though. testing for epogen is a horses system is impossible to find because there is stuff that is made that is a synthetic drug and does not supposedly come from snake venim or snail's. but what does happen is that the horse's coat winds up looking like a cancer patient that is having chemotherapy. i am sure they look for that in jaun carlos horses. some of his horses get claimed away from him and i haven't heard of any complaints. as far as pain medication goes, anything that is anti-inflamatory will get picked up in the test barn. i know of medication that is used for human arthritic patients, such as embrel, that goes directly to the nervous system. that medication falls under the category of human genome monoclonal anti-body. i have no idea if they test for that stuff, or if there is a test for it that it will actually show up. what i do know is that it is expensive stuff, and cost over $1000 per month for human's that weigh under 200 pounds. a horse weighs 1000 pounds, so if one would be giving it to a horse it would cost about $5000. test or no test i highly doubt that someone would spend that much money to administer that drug to a horse for a purse that in the $20k range. i want you to know that when any trainer is batting over 30% they are being watched like a hawk. juan carlos is no exception! the thing about human nature is that when money is involved, people often think and do crazy things. i am not being naiive and telling you that its impossible for this guy or others to have something up their sleeves to prejudice an outcome of a horse race, just wanted you to know that in that context it is not an easy thing to do.

[Relwob Owner]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

here is the bottom line, if the game was just about reading pace figures and sheet numbers, you and everyone else would all be millionaires. what you pointed out is one of many reasons why this game is a challenge. i know that what you are trying to say is that juan carlos guerreo is using some type of miracle drug that is automatically making the horse go faster. what you are thinking is that he is fooling the test barn's on a consistant basis. i have no idea what he is doing or what he is using. what i do know is that some vets charge as much as $400 to pre-race a horse, where i was accustomed to only paying about $100. those bills come from some of the most respected vets in the industry. when the bill comes i am told that there is no list just "pre-race". personally i really don't think there is a drug in this world that exist's that once administered is the same as rocket fuel. there are drugs that can ease the soreness that a horse has and drugs that help the horse breath better. most of them are going to be caught at the test barn though. testing for epogen is a horses system is impossible to find because there is stuff that is made that is a synthetic drug and does not supposedly come from snake venim or snail's. but what does happen is that the horse's coat winds up looking like a cancer patient that is having chemotherapy. i am sure they look for that in jaun carlos horses. some of his horses get claimed away from him and i haven't heard of any complaints. as far as pain medication goes, anything that is anti-inflamatory will get picked up in the test barn. i know of medication that is used for human arthritic patients, such as embrel, that goes directly to the nervous system. that medication falls under the category of human genome monoclonal anti-body. i have no idea if they test for that stuff, or if there is a test for it that it will actually show up. what i do know is that it is expensive stuff, and cost over $1000 per month for human's that weigh under 200 pounds. a horse weighs 1000 pounds, so if one would be giving it to a horse it would cost about $5000. test or no test i highly doubt that someone would spend that much money to administer that drug to a horse for a purse that in the $20k range. i want you to know that when any trainer is batting over 30% they are being watched like a hawk. juan carlos is no exception! the thing about human nature is that when money is involved, people often think and do crazy things. i am not being naiive and telling you that its impossible for this guy or others to have something up their sleeves to prejudice an outcome of a horse race, just wanted you to know that in that context it is not an easy thing to do.

You say he is being "watched like a hawk".....do you have any specific examples of what this means or what it entails? From what I have seen in terms of nefarious situations at the track, things that seem obvious to the average observer often go seemingly unnoticed or ignored

[OntheRail]

The one thing you will not find in any sheet is Trainer Intent. Are they in it to win it... or evaluate or devalue the horse in the public eye.

Yep Trainers Intent that's what I'd chock it up to.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

here is the bottom line, if the game was just about reading pace figures and sheet numbers, you and everyone else would all be millionaires. what you pointed out is one of many reasons why this game is a challenge. i know that what you are trying to say is that juan carlos guerreo is using some type of miracle drug that is automatically making the horse go faster. what you are thinking is that he is fooling the test barn's on a consistant basis. i have no idea what he is doing or what he is using. what i do know is that some vets charge as much as $400 to pre-race a horse, where i was accustomed to only paying about $100. those bills come from some of the most respected vets in the industry. when the bill comes i am told that there is no list just "pre-race". personally i really don't think there is a drug in this world that exist's that once administered is the same as rocket fuel. there are drugs that can ease the soreness that a horse has and drugs that help the horse breath better. most of them are going to be caught at the test barn though. testing for epogen is a horses system is impossible to find because there is stuff that is made that is a synthetic drug and does not supposedly come from snake venim or snail's. but what does happen is that the horse's coat winds up looking like a cancer patient that is having chemotherapy. i am sure they look for that in jaun carlos horses. some of his horses get claimed away from him and i haven't heard of any complaints. as far as pain medication goes, anything that is anti-inflamatory will get picked up in the test barn. i know of medication that is used for human arthritic patients, such as embrel, that goes directly to the nervous system. that medication falls under the category of human genome monoclonal anti-body. i have no idea if they test for that stuff, or if there is a test for it that it will actually show up. what i do know is that it is expensive stuff, and cost over $1000 per month for human's that weigh under 200 pounds. a horse weighs 1000 pounds, so if one would be giving it to a horse it would cost about $5000. test or no test i highly doubt that someone would spend that much money to administer that drug to a horse for a purse that in the $20k range. i want you to know that when any trainer is batting over 30% they are being watched like a hawk. juan carlos is no exception! the thing about human nature is that when money is involved, people often think and do crazy things. i am not being naiive and telling you that its impossible for this guy or others to have something up their sleeves to prejudice an outcome of a horse race, just wanted you to know that in that context it is not an easy thing to do.

Not long ago, Dahoss checked up on the Juan Carlos Guerrero claims.

He found that when Guerrero claims a horse, he wins "first off the claim" about 50% of the time! But when other trainers claim from HIM...THEY win only 3% of the time.

If this isn't shocking, I don't know what is!

[Robert Fischer]

Obviously it goes without saying that you passed this race, but were upset enough that you did what should be done and made a public complaint.

This is happening too frequently - A performance enhancing operation is making a race unbettable for profitable players - or even those trying to play the game and TRYING to be profitable!
To explain in layman's terms = the only players who can bet on or against the performance enhanced horses are:

1. ADDICTED GAMBLERS = who lose anyway and chase favorites, still lose, but may lose slightly less than usual when betting on the performance enhanced runners.
2. MONEY LAUNDERERS = they are playing with rebates already and those involved are willing to pay the moderate loss as a "fee" in order to do business with the racetracks in the known fashion.

Some may debate that money can be made on the performance enhanced operations by jumping on their bandwagon early on when their operation first starts to go afoul and jumping off when the public as a whole starts to get wise... This is true, although the volume of plays generated is small for the amount of grunt work and skill required. Also, most probably don't care, but it also transforms the game somewhat from a noble intellectual contest into something a bit darker. - As it is, with the majority of non-rebated skilled players choosing to pass the vast majority of races with known performance enhancers, there is still a passive element to admitting the existence of this foul element.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Not long ago, Dahoss checked up on the Juan Carlos Guerrero claims.

He found that when Guerrero claims a horse, he wins "first off the claim" about 50% of the time! But when other trainers claim from HIM...THEY win only 3% of the time.

If this isn't shocking, I don't know what is!

There is probably a true probability of something like 75% of the time you see similar statistics(possibly much less dramatic) that the operation is using a powerful drug that both enhances performances, and either causes dependence or damaging side-effects.

In horseracing there should be "flags" that statistical anomalies raise - both on the micro and macro levels. Once raised, a higher level than standard testing should be instituted. It is such an obvious error to nearly all people that follow horseracing that we don't step up testing when there are telltale signs of cheating. Sure there may be a few geniuses or dream runs of good luck, but 7/10 of these cases are performance enhancers.

[Wingtips]

Originally Posted by Relwob Owner

You say he is being "watched like a hawk".....do you have any specific examples of what this means or what it entails? From what I have seen in terms of nefarious situations at the track, things that seem obvious to the average observer often go seemingly unnoticed or ignored

Correct.
Nobody is watching anybody closely beyond regular testing protocals at Parx. People give these "watchers" way too much credit- they sleepwalk their their workdays. There is no CSI Parx!

[Stillriledup]

Racetracks love guys like this, because they have big barns and their horses are consistent performers as the favorites, which means, THEY feel that the public wants to bet races where supertrainers are involved.

I've been preaching this to the choir for the longest time now, racetracks only care about one thing. Profits and losses. They don't care if one bettor is being cheated at the expense of another. If the Juan Carloses of the world started making bettors leave the track and the handle plummeted and they received letters and e mails from large players saying they can no longer play the races over there, they would do something about it.

But they're not going to care as LONG AS HANDLE STAYS THE SAME.

No track is going to LOSE betting handle because a supertrainer is plying his trade, that's not how it works unfortunately.

[Pell Mell]

There seems to be more than one track where this shit goes on. I noticed a trainer the other day, I forget where and am too lazy to go look, with a 65% win average and it was for more than a few races.

I avoid races where these guys have an entry but it is frustrating when you find a spot play and he's in these races. I'm sick of getting beat by 3/5 shots.

[Zman179]

I certainly don't avoid betting these types of races. If I see Guerrero (or a similar super-juicer) first time off the claim, he is my top choice and is going on top of all my tickets. It doesn't matter if the horse has lost his last four races by a combined total of 70 lengths (with one of those races being eased), he is winning today. Period.

Sometimes in order to make a profit you just have to learn to throw the form out and bet based on cold trainer stats, and the public is starting to do just that.

[Relwob Owner]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Not long ago, Dahoss checked up on the Juan Carlos Guerrero claims.

He found that when Guerrero claims a horse, he wins "first off the claim" about 50% of the time! But when other trainers claim from HIM...THEY win only 3% of the time.

If this isn't shocking, I don't know what is!

There is a simlar percentage trainer at CT now as well......I think a lot of this is related at least partially to the slots......they have taken much of the motivation away from tracks in terms of putting any effort into their product. Since they have the slots money that they think(incorrectly IMO) will always be there, they have no incentive to investigate these trainers and dont care that bettors and owners alike may one day get fed up and not participate anymore.

[proximity]

Originally Posted by Relwob Owner

You say he is being "watched like a hawk".....do you have any specific examples of what this means or what it entails? From what I have seen in terms of nefarious situations at the track, things that seem obvious to the average observer often go seemingly unnoticed or ignored

one (ahem) positive in 2010 was the state police investigation at penn national.

while i don't know what this investigation will ultimately yield in terms of convictions (if anything), the presence of the state police really seemed to stabilize most of the outrageous trainer percentages that plagued this track throughout the decade. stephanie beattie is struggling to finish 20% for the year at pen and jamie ness is at like 17%. amongst the leaders, only scott lake has a really high percentage and that is with a limited number of starters.

when it comes to policing super-trainers, i guess it just depends on the hawk that's doing the watching.

[Relwob Owner]

Originally Posted by proximity

one (ahem) positive in 2010 was the state police investigation at penn national.

while i don't know what this investigation will ultimately yield in terms of convictions (if anything), the presence of the state police really seemed to stabilize most of the outrageous trainer percentages that plagued this track throughout the decade. stephanie beattie is struggling to finish 20% for the year at pen and jamie ness is at like 17%. amongst the leaders, only scott lake has a really high percentage and that is with a limited number of starters.

when it comes to policing super-trainers, i guess it just depends on the hawk that's doing the watching.

Good example with Penn and the effect it has had there.....as you say, that proves that changes can come about when effort is made......people debate the rules quite often but as someone who know and repect says to me alot, enforcement is the key and when it is done(like at PENN) positive results happen.