*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[NorCalGreg]

I'm tellin ya'all....if you play exotics, you gotta get EXOTIC BETS!

Don't mean to boast here, but once again I nailed the pick-4 in the contest:


early 4 / 3 / 3 / 7 paid $807.50 / $


$2 - pat5336
$1 - NorCalGreg, barahona44, coacht, Gapfire, Bennie, ReplayRandall, Binder, JolyB

[NorCalGreg]

Earlier this week a gentleman purchased my program--he wasn't all that computer proficient--so I talked with him by telephone and got him going with Platinum.

Here's a message I just got on my website:


"I was the person having problem down loading the program . hit santa anita pick 3 today $ 309.60"

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Don't mean to boast here, but once again I nailed the pick-4 in the contest.

As Walter Brennan used to say in The Guns of Will Sonnett, "NO BRAG, JUST FACT"....

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

As Walter Brennan used to say in The Guns of Will Sonnett, "NO BRAG, JUST FACT"....

I can't seem to make any headway against you Randall....see you nailed the same p-4

[Bennie]

I'm glad to see you are both dismissing me as I lay in wait.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

I can't seem to make any headway against you Randall....see you nailed the same p-4

We're both having a good time with it....Yes, winning is FUN..

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Bennie

I'm glad to see you are both dismissing me as I lay in wait.

Not so Bennie, read the last line of post# 2860.....

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Bennie

I'm glad to see you are both dismissing me as I lay in wait.

You've been up there since day one, Bennie .
..and I see you won again today!

[Bennie]

Can't let you guys get too far ahead of me. Only a couple of weekends left to make up some ground. Glad to see members of the Raider Nation making a run for the trophy.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Bennie

Can't let you guys get too far ahead of me. Only a couple of weekends left to make up some ground. Glad to see members of the Raider Nation making a run for the trophy.

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[NorCalGreg]

AQUEDUCT 3/12

2ND MIGHTY ZEALOUS 7/2

4TH RECTIFY 5-1

5TH WILDCAT BELLE 7/5

6TH ROSA DORATA 10-1

7TH MYSTICAL SONG 15-1

8TH DO YOU KNOW SOMETHING 15-1

9TH LADY LUCIANO 5-1

Good luck

-NCG

[Bennie]

greg - I see you opted for the late pick-4 today in the contest. Good choice as I can see lots of value if you can catch some of these horses. I will be looking at the late myself as far as the contest goes but will probably take a stab at the early with real money as I like a couple there and can play an inexpensive ticket. I don't think the horse has a chance based on first impressions but going to throw a $2 w/p bet on the 6 horse (Black Hole) in the 3rd just because. Good luck today. Will throw my helmet into the ring as soon as scratches are announced.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Here's an interesting little method from the Phillips Racing News. If you're like me and enjoy quick paper and pencil methods---you'll enjoy this monthly newsletter.

I'll give the method first--then the selections it picked from Hawthorne.

1. ALL ENTRANTS MUST HAVE MINIMUM 3 STARTS

2. WRITE DOWN THE TRAINER'S WIN %

3. SUBTRACT THE HORSE'S SECOND-BACK FINISH POSITION

4. NOW ADD THE HORSE'S 3RD BACK SPEED RATING--EITHER BEYER OR BRIS.

HIGHEST TOTAL IS YOUR SELECTION.



Here are today's picks from Hawthorne using this method:

1ST WISHIHADA

2ND PONTOTOC QUEEN

3RD POWERSTRETCHER

4TH YES I WIN

5TH KONZA CHROME

6TH BE GOOD TO US

7TH LITTLE IKE

8TH FORT LEWIS RIVERS

9TH TALL GRASS CAT

The reason I like this method is the "unusual" way of rating horses. I think it's best use is for finding longshots---I checked a couple tracks--here was a winner from OPX today:

8TH RACE Aunt Gayle $40.80 $14.40 $15.40

[timtam]

Greg,

What are you using to give out the Aqueduct picks?

With a little additional handicapping I hit the early pick 4 ticket cost $2

2 pick 3's max ticket cost $2

Also 4 horse in Race 8 payed $ 20 to place

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Bennie

greg - I see you opted for the late pick-4 today in the contest. Good choice as I can see lots of value if you can catch some of these horses. I will be looking at the late myself as far as the contest goes but will probably take a stab at the early with real money as I like a couple there and can play an inexpensive ticket. I don't think the horse has a chance based on first impressions but going to throw a $2 w/p bet on the 6 horse (Black Hole) in the 3rd just because. Good luck today. Will throw my helmet into the ring as soon as scratches are announced.

Yeah...played it LATE today. I'm getting a little too arrogant--The EARLY was so obvious, I figure it's gonna pay about $25....so went for the big bucks.....and got burned

Think there are only two weekends left of the contest--if I read the schedule correctly. Gonna have to go for the big bucks--no choice now.

If anyone knew my handicapping technique....I mean just me and a racing form-type handicapping...you would probably be surprised at my decidedly crude methods. I just don't think horse race picking is that damn hard--I'll show you what I mean:

I MAINLY look at two things:

First I look at the horse's last 3 races....for ANY call they were less than 1 length behind...and note the purse value of the race. Obviously the higher purse value is preferred.

Next I note the E-2 pace figs of the last 2 races----of the horses that "qualify" on my CLASS technique.

In today's feature race a huge longshot stood out: DOYOUKNOWSOMETHING

Another horse SUNNY RIDGE stood out as well. The favorite SEND IT IN appeared way overbet...with no real shot at the win.

I bet DoYouKnowSomething to win...and instead of a place bet--I played an exacta of the main danger Sunny Ridge on top of DoYouKnowSomething

Look at these three horses---hard to believe which horse went off at 35-1...and which horse was 2-1.

BTW....I like the "quick" PP's included with Exotic Bets...since I use running lines of the last couple races to handicap. Also uses PURSE VALUE instead of confusing condition values.

I bet a lot more on the win bet--than I spent on the exacta--although I collected nothing on the win bet--the exacta paid a sweet $240.50.

You may see my "method" on a button in my next software program---showing these kind of standouts.
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