Looking for a Derby longshot angle ?

[taxicab]

Here's a very strange stat.
Bear with me,this is kind of confusing.....as are many of my posts.
Tapiture is the only horse in this years derby who has beaten winners routing on dirt at multiple racetracks(and one of those wins was breaking his maiden in a stake @ CD).
And there is only one other horse who has beaten winners at any distance on dirt at more than one racetrack........Chitu.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by taxicab

Here's a very strange stat.
Bear with me,this is kind of confusing.....as are many of my posts.
Tapiture is the only horse in this years derby who has beaten winners routing on dirt at multiple racetracks(and one of those wins was breaking his maiden in a stake @ CD).
And there is only one other horse who has beaten winners at any distance on dirt at more than one racetrack........Chitu.

Baffert is a very intelligent trainer. The guy handicaps the possible horses of a race he's thinking of putting his horse in & if he sees he doesn't have a good chance of winning a race, he sends that horse to a different race.

Only reason he stuck Hoppy in the Santa Anita derby is he was very confident he could best every horse in the race except for Chrome & w/o even trying, hence a 2nd place finish.......then again, Chrome wasn't trying too hard either.

Chitu is a good horse IMO but I'm in the minority thinking this. Baffert puts him in a G3 race & wins after coming in 2nd to Candy Boy in a G2 race & that's after having the lead in the stretch.

Why doesn't Baffert enter him in a G1 race? One of the main prep races........because Baffert knows he's not a top caliber horse yet, if its even possible with him at longer distances.

Tapiture has my head spinning because I don't know if I should put him in my exotics......I'm very confident he doesn't win.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by taxicab

Here's a very strange stat.
Bear with me,this is kind of confusing.....as are many of my posts.
Tapiture is the only horse in this years derby who has beaten winners routing on dirt at multiple racetracks(and one of those wins was breaking his maiden in a stake @ CD).
And there is only one other horse who has beaten winners at any distance on dirt at more than one racetrack........Chitu.

What I see is Tapiture as the only one in the field with a graded stakes win over 1-mile on dirt as a 2YO. This angle is sporadic at best.

But I had to go back to 2007 Street Sense and 1998 Real Quiet for Derby winners that fit this angle.

[JackS]

Two possible meaningful angles if your going to try to beat CC.
Horses who broke their maiden at 2yo
Horses who broke their maiden at 2yo going a route

Horses that fit the above criteria:

Wicked Strong
Hoppertunity
Tapature
Intense Holiday
Medal Count
Uncle Sigh
Candy boy
Cleburne
Commanding Curve


Several of these horses will no doubt be scratched from the Derby.
Those that remain should make for an affordable ticket for those wishing to gamble.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by JackS

Several of these horses will no doubt be scratched from the Derby.

Really?