ML Favs Got Crusched @SAR Yesterday - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

TheOracle · 07-12-2019, 12:12 PM

The Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 took a beat down yesterday as only 1 of 7 got sent to the winners circle

Code:

1	07-11-2019	1st race	7	Real Dan (NY)		Claiming	Dirt Fast	One And Three Sixteenth Miles	T A Pletcher	5/2#				
2	07-11-2019	2nd race	2	Sayyaaf (KY)		MSW		Turf Firm	Five And One Half Furlongs	C C Brown	6/5#	W	3.8	2.5	2.3
3	07-11-2019	3rd race	4	Potomac (KY)		Allowance	Dirt Fast	One And One Eighth Miles	C F Martin	2/1#				
4	07-11-2019	3rd race	6	Growth Engine (KY)	Allowance	Dirt Fast	One And One Eighth Miles	C C Brown	5/2#	P		5.9	3.2
5	07-11-2019	7th race	4	Giant Zinger (NY)	Alw Opt Clm	Turf Yielding	One And One Eighth Miles	W I Mott	7/5#	S			2.9
6	07-11-2019	8th race	1	Shippy (KY)		Stakes		Dirt Muddy	Six Furlongs			D F ONeill	2/1#	S			2.4
7	07-11-2019	9th race	6	Call Paul (PA)		Stakes		Turf Yielding	Five And One Half Furlongs	J Servis	5/2#			
	
ML Odds	Strts	1st	2nds	3rds	Win %	Win $	Cost	Return	% Return						
lt 3-1	7	1	1	2	14.2%	$3.8	$14	$-10.2	-73%	
					
					WPS %	WPS $	Cost	Return	% Rtrn	Shw $
					57.1%	$23	$42	$-19	-46%	10.8

They have been 0 for their last 5 but there are 2 Morning Lines less than 3-1 in the 1st race today at the Spa

Code:

pick07-12-20191	07-12-2019	1st race	5	French Revolution (KY)	Maiden Claiming	One And One Eighth Miles	T A Pletcher	8/5#	Dirt
pick07-12-20192	07-12-2019	1st race	8	Oso Negro (KY)	Maiden Claiming	One And One Eighth Miles	C C Brown	2/1#	Dirt

Let's see if one of these can break the jinx today!!!

elhelmete · 07-12-2019, 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle

The Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 took a beat down yesterday as only 1 of 7 got sent to the winners circle

Code:

1	07-11-2019	1st race	7	Real Dan (NY)		Claiming	Dirt Fast	One And Three Sixteenth Miles	T A Pletcher	5/2#				
2	07-11-2019	2nd race	2	Sayyaaf (KY)		MSW		Turf Firm	Five And One Half Furlongs	C C Brown	6/5#	W	3.8	2.5	2.3
3	07-11-2019	3rd race	4	Potomac (KY)		Allowance	Dirt Fast	One And One Eighth Miles	C F Martin	2/1#				
4	07-11-2019	3rd race	6	Growth Engine (KY)	Allowance	Dirt Fast	One And One Eighth Miles	C C Brown	5/2#	P		5.9	3.2
5	07-11-2019	7th race	4	Giant Zinger (NY)	Alw Opt Clm	Turf Yielding	One And One Eighth Miles	W I Mott	7/5#	S			2.9
6	07-11-2019	8th race	1	Shippy (KY)		Stakes		Dirt Muddy	Six Furlongs			D F ONeill	2/1#	S			2.4
7	07-11-2019	9th race	6	Call Paul (PA)		Stakes		Turf Yielding	Five And One Half Furlongs	J Servis	5/2#			
	
ML Odds	Strts	1st	2nds	3rds	Win %	Win $	Cost	Return	% Return						
lt 3-1	7	1	1	2	14.2%	$3.8	$14	$-10.2	-73%	
					
					WPS %	WPS $	Cost	Return	% Rtrn	Shw $
					57.1%	$23	$42	$-19	-46%	10.8

They have been 0 for their last 5 but there are 2 Morning Lines less than 3-1 in the 1st race today at the Spa

Code:

pick07-12-20191	07-12-2019	1st race	5	French Revolution (KY)	Maiden Claiming	One And One Eighth Miles	T A Pletcher	8/5#	Dirt
pick07-12-20192	07-12-2019	1st race	8	Oso Negro (KY)	Maiden Claiming	One And One Eighth Miles	C C Brown	2/1#	Dirt

Let's see if one of these can break the jinx today!!!

Jinx?

TheOracle · 07-13-2019, 01:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by elhelmete

Jinx?

Hey Elhelmete

Jinx, slump whatever you want to call it but Morning Lines less than 3-1 have been struggling at the start of the Saratoga season once again they got crushed

After the 1st race today they went 0 for their last 7 before Rice's horse #13 Daddy Knows got the win in the 2nd race

Code:

1	07-12-2019	1st race	5	French Revolution (KY)	Mdn Clm	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M		T A Pletcher	8/5#				
2	07-12-2019	1st race	8	Oso Negro (KY)		Mdn Clm	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M		C C Brown	2/1#	P		3.7	2.6
3	07-12-2019	2nd race	13	Daddy Knows (NY)	Mdn SpclDirt Fast	1 1/8 M		L Rice		1/1#	W	3.5	2.4	2.1
4	07-12-2019	3rd race	3	Complicit (KY)		Alw Op CTurf Yielding	1 1/16 M	C C Brown	8/5#	S			2.4
5	07-12-2019	3rd race	4	Dream Passage (NY)	Alw Op CTurf Yielding	1 1/16 M	B H Cox		5/2#	P		4.0	2.6
6	07-12-2019	5th race	2	Good Shabbos (KY)	Mdn SpclDirt Fast	5.5 Furl	J C Englehart	5/2#	P		3.7	2.9
7	07-12-2019	6th race	1	Felix in Fabula (KY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	1 1/16 M	B N Levine	8/5#	W	6.5	6.8	4.0
8	07-12-2019	6th race	1A	Curlin Road (KY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	1 1/16 M	R R Rodriguez	8/5#	P		6.8	4.0
9	07-12-2019	7th race	15	Saloon Girl (NY)	Alw	Dirt Fast	5.5 Furl	W A Ward	5/2#	P		3.7	3.1
10	07-12-2019	8th race	6	Doups Point (NY)	Alw Op CDirt Fast	1 1/8 M		C Clement	5/2#	S			2.1

ML Odds	Strts	1st	2nds	3rds	Win %	Win $	Cost	Return	% Return						
lt 3-1	10	2	5	2	20%	$10	$20	$-10	-50%	
					
					WPS %	WPS $	Cost	Return	% Rtrn	Shw $
					90%	$66.9	$60	$6.9	11%	25.8*

The slump continues for the Morning Line Favorites (MLFs) less than 3-1

Anyone looking for prices today were licking their chops!!!

*Double counted the show money in the 6th race don't have an algorithm to account for entries yet

TheOracle · 07-13-2019, 11:25 AM

Let's focus on these Morning Lines less than 3-1 today at Saratoga

Code:

pick07-13-20191	07-13-2019	1st race	10	Shes Not Bluffing (NY)	ClaimingSeven Furlongs	R N Falcone Jr.	5/2#	Dirt
pick07-13-20192	07-13-2019	3rd race	2	Raging Whiskey (MD)	Stakes	Six Furlongs	D F ONeill	5/2#	Dirt
pick07-13-20193	07-13-2019	3rd race	5	By Your Side (KY)	Stakes	Six Furlongs	E Kenneally	5/2#	Dirt

Maybe one of these will get to the winners circle today

TheOracle · 07-13-2019, 10:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle

Let's focus on these Morning Lines less than 3-1 today at Saratoga

Code:

pick07-13-20191	07-13-2019	1st race	10	Shes Not Bluffing (NY)	ClaimingSeven Furlongs	R N Falcone Jr.	5/2#	Dirt
pick07-13-20192	07-13-2019	3rd race	2	Raging Whiskey (MD)	Stakes	Six Furlongs	D F ONeill	5/2#	Dirt
pick07-13-20193	07-13-2019	3rd race	5	By Your Side (KY)	Stakes	Six Furlongs	E Kenneally	5/2#	Dirt

Maybe one of these will get to the winners circle today

We did get 1 winner today but it wasn't enough to make a profit on the day as
#10 Shes Not Bluffing finished 2nd while #2 Raging Whiskey finished 3rd

Code:

res07-13-20191	2019-07-13	1st race	10	Shes Not Bluffing (NY)	ClaimingSeven Furlongs	R N Falcone Jr.	5/2#	Dirt Fast	0.0	2.7	2.2
res07-13-20192	2019-07-13	3rd race	2	Raging Whiskey (MD)	Stakes	Six Furlongs	D F ONeill	5/2#	Dirt Fast	0.0	0.0	2.4
res07-13-20193	2019-07-13	3rd race	5	By Your Side (KY)	Stakes	Six Furlongs	E Kenneally	5/2#	Dirt Fast	4.8	3.2	2.3

A $2 wager on each to win only got you $4.80

Congratulations to those who saw the #5 By Your Side play and were able to make a profit!!!

TheOracle · 07-13-2019, 10:26 PM

The Morning Line Favorites (MLFs) less than 3-1 finally broke out of their slump

MLFs less than 3-1 went 6 of 13 today at the Spa

Code:

1	07-13-2019	1st race	10	Shes Not Bluffing (NY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	R N Falcone Jr.	5/2#	P		2.7	2.2
2	07-13-2019	2nd race	5	Lindas Ballet (NY)	Mdn Clm	Turf Good	5.5 FurlL Rice		5/2#	W	9.2	4.2	3.5
3	07-13-2019	3rd race	2	Raging Whiskey (MD)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	D F ONeill	5/2#	S			2.4
4	07-13-2019	3rd race	3	Cucina (FL)		Stakes	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	M E Casse	8/5#				
5	07-13-2019	3rd race	5	By Your Side (KY)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	E Kenneally	5/2#	W	4.8	3.2	2.3
6	07-13-2019	4th race	6	Zyramid (KY)		Mdn SpclDirt Fast	5.5 FurlS M Asmussen	8/5#	W	4.9	3.5	2.7
7	07-13-2019	5th race	1	Originator (KY)		Alw	Turf Good	5.5 FurlI R Wilkes	8/5#	W	5.8	3.3	2.5
8	07-13-2019	5th race	1A	Noble Freud (NY)	Alw	Turf Good	5.5 FurlJ C Englehart	8/5#				
9	07-13-2019	8th race	6	Peaceful (KY)		Mdn SpclTurf Good	5.5 FurlJ Thomas	2/1#	W	7.4	3.4	2.5
10	07-13-2019	9th race	2	Rushing Fall (KY)	Stakes	Turf Good	1 1/8 M	C C Brown	9/5#	P		2.8	2.2
11	07-13-2019	9th race	4	Sistercharlie (IRE)	Stakes	Turf Good	1 1/8 M	C C Brown	8/5#	W	5.8	3.2	2.2
12	07-13-2019	9th race	6	Homerique (KY)		Stakes	Turf Good	1 1/8 M	C C Brown	5/2#	S			2.3
13	07-13-2019	10th race	5	Payne (KY)		Alw	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	C C Brown	6/5#	S			2.2

ML Odds	Strts	1st	2nds	3rds	Win %	Win $	Cost	Return	% Return						
lt 3-1	13	6	2	3	46.1%	$37.9	$26	$11.9	45%			
			
					WPS %	WPS $	Cost	Return	% Rtrn	Shw $
					84.6%	$91.2	$78	$13.2	16%	27

You got a 45% return per $2 win wager on MLFs less than 3-1 today

46zilzal · 07-14-2019, 02:30 AM

EASY leave MOST of the turf races alone, particularly the baby races

TheOracle · 07-14-2019, 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

EASY leave MOST of the turf races alone, particularly the baby races

Hey 46

Going back to August of last year up to yesterday the average win price on the Turf was $12.60 at the Spa

Code:

								
RowNum:	PgmNum:	Win:	Place:	Show:	Distance:	RaceCond:TrackCond:	Fieldof:Date:		 ML
1	2	7.9	4.3	3.7	2 1/16 M	Alw	Turf Firm	6	08-01-2018	  6/1#	Boss Man (FL)	A J Kingsley Jr.
2	2	14.4	6.5	4.2	5.5 Furl	Mdn Clm	Turf Firm	12	08-01-2018	  3/1#	Ghost Giant (NY)	J R Abreu
3	11	10.6	4.9	3.3	1 1/16 M	Clm	Turf Firm	12	08-01-2018	  7/2#	Your Only Man (KY)	T A Pletcher
4	9	11.0	6.3	3.1	5.5 Furl	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	8	08-01-2018	  7/2#	Jaded Lady (NY)	J C Englehart
5	12	11.6	6.8	5.3	1 M		Alw	Turf Firm	12	08-01-2018	  6/1#	Follow the Signs (NY)	S M Asmussen
6	11	17.2	7.0	4.5	5.5 Furl	Alw Op CTurf Firm	10	08-01-2018	  8/1#	Banana Thief (NY)	S M Asmussen
7	3	5.3	3.0	2.1	1 M		Mdn SpclTurf Firm	7	08-02-2018	  5/2#	Hizeem (KY)	C C Brown
8	8	8.3	5.1	4.0	5.5 Furl	Mdn Clm	Turf Firm	8	08-02-2018	  8/1#	Souper Echo (FL)	M J Trombetta
9	5	7.3	4.2	2.6	1 1/8 M		Alw	Turf Firm	8	08-02-2018	  9/2#	Sentry (KY)	C R McGaughey III
10	1	15.0	7.2	3.7	1 1/8 M		Alw Op CTurf Firm	6	08-02-2018	  6/1#	Danceland (KY)	C R McGaughey III
11	1	4.6	3.1	2.4	1 1/16 M	Mdn Clm	Turf Firm	10	08-02-2018	  2/1#	Muchacha Uno (KY)	J R Abreu
12	4	7.3	3.6	2.9	1 1/16 M	Stakes	Turf Yielding	9	08-03-2018	  3/1#	Raging Bull (FR)	C C Brown
13	1	7.2	3.5	2.9	1 M		Stakes	Turf Soft	7	08-04-2018	  5/2#	Uni (GB)	C C Brown
14	7	10.0	5.4	3.2	5.5 Furl	Stakes	Turf Soft	8	08-05-2018	  7/2#	Sandyz Slew (NY)	J C Englehart
15	10	12.0	5.8	4.1	1 3/16 M	Clm	Turf Soft	9	08-05-2018	  5/1#	Master Plan (KY)	T A Pletcher
16	2	12.0	4.2	3.3	1 3/8 M		Alw	Turf Soft	8	08-05-2018	  4/1#	Im the Captain Now (KY)	B Tagg
17	2	2.7	0.0	0.0	1 M		Stakes	Turf Good	3	08-06-2018	  3/5#	Therapist (NY)	C Clement
18	8	4.5	2.6	2.3	1 1/16 M	Mdn SpclTurf Good	9	08-06-2018	  2/1#	Chestnut Street (NY)	C C Brown
19	9	8.7	5.6	4.8	5.5 Furl	Clm	Turf Good	10	08-06-2018	  6/1#	Sheikh of Sheikhs (FL)	E Kenneally
20	1	11.4	6.4	4.3	1 3/8 M		Alw	Turf Good	8	08-06-2018	  4/1#	Lady Montdore (KY)	T Albertrani
21	10	20.8	7.7	5.7	5.5 Furl	Alw Op CTurf Good	10	08-06-2018	  12/1#	Eloweasel (NY)	D G Donk
22	3	7.2	4.1	3.4	5.5 Furl	Mdn Clm	Turf Firm	12	08-08-2018	  5/1#	Ailish (NY)	J R Abreu
23	2	9.4	4.0	2.9	1 1/8 M		Clm	Turf Firm	6	08-08-2018	  5/2#	Factor This (KY)	E R Barker
24	2	13.0	5.9	3.8	1 1/16 M	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	9	08-08-2018	  8/1#	Somelikeithotbrown (NY)	M J Maker
25	7	11.8	4.9	3.1	1 M		Str Alw	Turf Yielding	8	08-08-2018	  6/1#	Cape Angel (KY)	J Sharp
26	1	5.4	4.0	3.1	5.5 Furl	Stakes	Turf Yielding	12	08-08-2018	  3/1#	World of Trouble (FL)	J Servis
27	4	3.0	2.3	2.1	6 Furl		Alw Op CTurf Yielding	6	08-09-2018	  7/2#	Baby Boss (NY)	J C Englehart
28	2	5.6	3.2	2.3	1 1/8 M		Alw	Turf Yielding	7	08-09-2018	  8/5#	Speke (NY)	T A Pletcher
29	4	4.6	3.1	2.5	1 1/16 M	Mdn Clm	Turf Good	8	08-10-2018	  8/5#	Amazing Audrey (KY)	T A Pletcher
30	7	6.0	4.3	3.3	5.5 Furl	Mdn SpclTurf Good	9	08-10-2018	  3/1#	Two Shakes (KY)	W A Ward
31	7	18.2	6.8	3.8	1 3/8 M		Alw Op CTurf Good	5	08-10-2018	  5/1#	Lady Joan (NY)	P M Serpe
32	9	6.9	3.9	2.9	1 1/16 M	Clm	Turf Good	11	08-10-2018	  3/1#	Theaterintheround (NY)	C C Brown
33	3	20.6	11.4	7.1	5.5 Furl	Mdn SpclTurf Good	10	08-10-2018	  10/1#	Veterans Beach (NY)	D G Donk
34	6	4.8	3.1	2.3	1 1/16 M	Clm	Turf Good	7	08-11-2018	  5/2#	Prognostication (KY)	C C Brown
35	8	14.2	7.2	4.6	5.5 Furl	Alw	Turf Good	11	08-11-2018	  10/1#	Sister Sophia (NY)	J R Abreu
36	6	15.4	6.6	4.6	1 M		Stakes	Turf Good	6	08-11-2018	  9/2#	Voodoo Song (NY)	L Rice
37	3	8.6	4.5	3.5	1 1/16 M	Stakes	Turf Good	7	08-11-2018	  7/2#	Inspector Lynley (KY)	C R McGaughey III
38	5	6.8	4.3	3.1	5.5 Furl	Mdn SpclTurf Good	9	08-13-2018	  7/2#	Fog of War (KY)	C C Brown
39	7	4.1	2.6	2.1	5.5 Furl	Clm	Turf Firm	5	08-15-2018	  8/5#	Avery Maeve (FL)	D A Cannizzo
40	7	10.6	5.6	3.9	1 1/16 M	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	10	08-15-2018	  5/1#	Civil Union (KY)	C C Brown
41	8	22.4	7.6	3.2	5.5 Furl	Stakes	Turf Firm	6	08-15-2018	  8/1#	Stillwater Cove (KY)	W A Ward
42	10	11.6	6.2	4.2	1 1/16 M	Mdn Clm	Turf Firm	10	08-15-2018	  4/1#	Overnight Success (KY)	J Servis
43	5	7.0	3.6	2.7	5.5 Furl	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	9	08-16-2018	  2/1#	Tradeable (NY)	J O Hertler
44	8	12.0	5.9	3.7	1 1/16 M	Clm	Turf Firm	8	08-16-2018	  9/2#	Souperfast (KY)	R R Rodriguez
45	9	9.0	4.8	2.9	1 M		Alw Op CTurf Firm	9	08-16-2018	  9/2#	Cool Beans (KY)	B H Cox
46	1	12.6	6.0	3.3	5.5 Furl	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	9	08-16-2018	  4/1#	Andarta (NY)	T Albertrani
47	4	35.2	13.8	9.0	1 M		Alw Op CTurf Good	9	08-17-2018	  12/1#	Leaveematthegate (NY)	L Gyarmati
48	6	47.0	15.8	7.8	5.5 Furl	Stakes	Turf Good	9	08-17-2018	  20/1#	Chattel (KY)	B McFarlane
49	6	4.7	3.4	2.7	1 1/8 M		Stakes	Turf Soft	7	08-18-2018	  9/5#	Rushing Fall (KY)	C C Brown
50	1	3.8	2.7	2.1	1 M		Clm	Turf Yielding	8	08-19-2018	  9/5#	Glory to Kitten (KY)	J R Abreu
51	10	21.6	6.3	4.4	5.5 Furl	Mdn SpclTurf Yielding	10	08-19-2018	  10/1#	Tap Tap Taparoo (KY)	J J Toner
52	5	5.0	3.3	2.8	1 1/16 M	Mdn SpclTurf Yielding	10	08-19-2018	  5/2#	Newspaperofrecord (IRE)	C C Brown
53	7	13.4	6.5	5.2	5.5 Furl	Alw	Turf Yielding	10	08-19-2018	  8/1#	We Should Talk (NY)	H DePaz
54	9	3.6	2.7	2.4	1 3/16 M	Alw Op CTurf Yielding	7	08-19-2018	  7/5#	Admission Office (KY)	C C Brown
55	1	7.7	4.3	2.4	5.5 Furl	Clm	Turf Good	7	08-20-2018	  5/2#	Benefactor (KY)	R Diodoro
56	2	26.4	11.8	7.8	5.5 Furl	Mdn SpclTurf Good	10	08-20-2018	  15/1#	Concrete Rose (KY)	G R Arnold II
57	10	9.8	5.6	4.2	1 M		Clm	Turf Good	9	08-20-2018	  6/1#	Miko (KY)	L Rice
58	9	12.0	5.9	5.0	5.5 Furl	Alw Op CTurf Good	8	08-20-2018	  9/2#	Miss Gossip (IRE)	C F Martin
59	7	98.0	42.8	16.0	1 1/8 M		Mdn Clm	Turf Good	11	08-20-2018	  20/1#	Wont Be Missed (NY)	J W Ferraro
60	1	11.0	5.2	3.7	2 3/8 M		Stakes	Turf Good	6	08-22-2018	  7/2#	Surprising Soul (ON)	R J Hendriks
61	4	10.4	4.9	3.0	1 M		Alw Op CTurf Good	6	08-22-2018	  8/1#	Conquest Hardcandy (NY)	J T Ryerson
62	4	10.6	6.2	4.2	1 5/8 M		Stakes	Turf Good	9	08-22-2018	  6/1#	Focus Group (KY)	C C Brown
63	2	16.4	8.4	5.4	2 3/8 M		Stakes	Turf Firm	8	08-23-2018	  9/2#	Optimus Prime (FR)	R J Hendriks
64	2	5.6	3.3	2.2	1 M		Clm	Turf Firm	6	08-23-2018	  2/1#	Rosebuds Hope (KY)	M Stidham
65	5	23.8	11.0	6.0	1 1/16 M	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	10	08-23-2018	  10/1#	Dashing Dan (NY)	M Dilger
66	6	6.5	2.9	2.5	5.5 Furl	Str Alw	Turf Firm	9	08-23-2018	  3/1#	Dream Passage (NY)	B H Cox
67	5	10.2	4.6	3.8	1 M		Stakes	Turf Firm	9	08-23-2018	  9/2#	Monte Crista (MD)	M J Trombetta
68	2	27.6	12.4	5.8	5.5 Furl	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	8	08-23-2018	  15/1#	Fixed Point (KY)	P M Serpe
69	7	11.0	5.5	3.2	5.5 Furl	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	9	08-24-2018	  9/2#	Analyzethisandthat (NY)	R J Cash
70	10	6.9	3.5	2.7	1 1/16 M	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	10	08-24-2018	  5/2#	Shady Shady Shady (NY)	M Nevin
71	1	10.8	7.3	5.5	5.5 Furl	Alw Op CTurf Firm	8	08-24-2018	  6/1#	Colonel Tom (NY)	G Weaver
72	2	7.6	4.8	2.7	1 1/16 M	Stakes	Turf Firm	8	08-24-2018	  5/2#	La Moneda (NY)	T Morley
73	10	37.4	10.8	5.6	1 1/16 M	Stakes	Turf Firm	10	08-24-2018	  6/1#	Kharafa (NY)	T A Hills
74	12	5.9	3.8	2.6	5.5 Furl	Mdn Clm	Turf Firm	11	08-24-2018	  5/2#	Brockmoninoff (NY)	G Weaver
75	4	4.1	3.2	2.5	1 1/16 M	Alw	Turf Firm	12	08-25-2018	  8/5#	Way Early (NY)	G Weaver
76	6	42.0	18.4	12.2	1 1/16 M	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	10	08-25-2018	  15/1#	Forty Under (KY)	J C Englehart
77	4	7.7	4.4	3.4	1 3/16 M	Alw Op CTurf Firm	10	08-25-2018	  7/2#	Red Knight (NY)	W I Mott
78	1	33.4	14.4	9.8	1 1/2 M		Stakes	Turf Firm	10	08-25-2018	  10/1#	Glorious Empire (IRE)	J L Lawrence II
79	5	9.5	5.2	3.6	1 1/16 M	Stakes	Turf Firm	6	08-25-2018	  4/1#	Quidura (GB)	C C Brown
80	11	17.0	8.6	5.2	1 M		Mdn Clm	Turf Firm	12	08-25-2018	  12/1#	Spring On Curlin (KY)	C Baker
81	4	5.3	3.9	3.3	1 1/16 M	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	10	08-26-2018	  7/2#	Speedy Solution (KY)	W A Ward
82	7	15.4	6.4	3.4	1 1/16 M	Clm	Turf Firm	7	08-26-2018	  8/1#	Tricked Up (KY)	R R Rodriguez
83	1	10.8	3.7	2.9	1 1/16 M	Alw	Turf Firm	8	08-26-2018	  8/1#	Holiday Bonus (KY)	H G Motion
84	3	9.1	4.8	4.3	1 1/16 M	Alw	Turf Firm	12	08-26-2018	  9/2#	Jodys Song (NY)	J R Abreu
85	3	11.6	6.4	4.4	5.5 Furl	Stakes	Turf Firm	12	08-26-2018	  5/1#	Chanteline (KY)	S M Asmussen
86	3	21.0	11.2	7.3	1 1/16 M	Mdn Clm	Turf Firm	11	08-26-2018	  8/1#	American Ninja (NY)	P L Reynolds
87	4	14.6	5.9	5.3	1 1/2 M		Mdn SpclTurf Firm	7	08-27-2018	  4/1#	Winter Union (KY)	M R Matz
88	1	3.8	4.0	2.7	1 1/16 M	Mdn Clm	Turf Firm	8	08-27-2018	  1/1#	Supercommittee (FL)	R A Violette Jr.
89	7	14.0	6.7	4.4	1 M		Clm	Turf Firm	9	08-27-2018	  4/1#	Cloontia (NY)	R R Rodriguez
90	3	14.6	5.7	4.2	5.5 Furl	Alw	Turf Firm	9	08-27-2018	  4/1#	Stolen Pistol (NY)	J Sharp
91	5	12.4	6.2	4.2	1 M		Stakes	Turf Firm	9	08-27-2018	  9/2#	Roses Vision (ON)	S C Simon
92	4	9.4	4.9	3.8	5.5 Furl	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	10	08-27-2018	  7/2#	Surge of Pride (NY)	L Rice
93	3	3.5	2.2	2.1	2 3/8 M		Alw	Turf Firm	5	08-29-2018	  8/5#	Dark Gemini (IRE)	J O Fisher
94	5	18.2	12.0	7.2	5.5 Furl	Mdn Clm	Turf Firm	10	08-29-2018	  9/2#	A Bit of Mischief (FL)	J Sharp
95	1	2.7	2.6	2.1	1 1/16 M	Str Alw	Turf Firm	8	08-29-2018	  4/5#	Prognostication (KY)	C C Brown
96	4	9.4	4.8	2.9	5.5 Furl	Clm	Turf Firm	7	08-29-2018	  6/1#	Tres Charmant (NY)	L Rice
97	8	9.8	3.7	3.1	1 1/16 M	Stakes	Turf Firm	6	08-29-2018	  6/1#	Opry (KY)	T A Pletcher
98	10	15.2	8.4	6.1	1 1/16 M	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	11	08-29-2018	  8/1#	Whiskey Run (NY)	M Miceli
99	12	7.5	4.4	3.7	5.5 Furl	Alw	Turf Yielding	12	08-30-2018	  7/2#	Stonefactor (NY)	M Dilger
100	1	4.3	3.3	2.2	1 1/16 M	Stakes	Turf Yielding	6	08-30-2018	  6/1#	Dogtag (KY)	C C Brown
101	1	2.9	2.5	2.1	1 1/16 M	Mdn SpclTurf Good	6	08-31-2018	  1/1#	Chiclets Dream (NY)	C C Brown
102	3	19.8	5.2	3.7	1 M		Alw Op CTurf Good	6	08-31-2018	  10/1#	Candy Store (IRE)	C Clement
103	6	29.4	11.6	6.9	5.5 Furl	Mdn SpclTurf Good	10	08-31-2018	  6/1#	Stellar Agent (KY)	J R Abreu
104	7	11.0	4.0	2.8	5.5 Furl	Stakes	Turf Good	7	08-31-2018	  3/1#	Extravagant Kid (FL)	B P Walsh
105	1	6.5	3.9	3.0	5.5 Furl	Clm	Turf Good	9	09-01-2018	  5/1#	Dowses Beach (NY)	J Servis
106	2	17.6	8.0	5.0	1 M		Alw Op CTurf Good	8	09-01-2018	  6/1#	Holiday Stone (KY)	G Weaver
107	3	7.2	4.3	3.2	1 1/16 M	Mdn SpclTurf Good	10	09-01-2018	  4/1#	Spirit Animal (KY)	C C Brown
108	10	8.1	4.8	2.9	1 M		Alw Op CTurf Good	9	09-01-2018	  5/2#	Hizeem (KY)	C C Brown
109	3	6.5	3.4	2.8	1 1/8 M		Stakes	Turf Good	9	09-01-2018	  2/1#	Raging Bull (FR)	C C Brown
110	8	10.4	4.5	3.8	1 3/8 M		Stakes	Turf Good	8	09-01-2018	  8/1#	Lady Montdore (KY)	T Albertrani
111	10	11.8	5.3	4.2	5.5 Furl	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	10	09-02-2018	  8/1#	Rhythm With Soul (NY)	J C Kimmel
112	3	28.6	10.6	5.9	1 M		Clm	Turf Firm	11	09-02-2018	  12/1#	Discreet Image (NY)	D G Donk
113	8	10.4	5.2	3.8	1 1/16 M	Clm	Turf Firm	7	09-02-2018	  8/1#	Year of the Kitten (NY)	M J Maker
114	8	3.5	2.4	2.1	1 3/16 M	Alw Op CTurf Firm	7	09-02-2018	  4/5#	Mighty Scarlett (KY)	C C Brown
115	1	6.5	4.0	2.9	1 M		Alw	Turf Firm	8	09-02-2018	  6/1#	Excellent Sunset (IRE)	B P Walsh
116	1	8.6	4.0	3.4	1 3/16 M	Clm	Turf Firm	10	09-02-2018	  6/1#	Sycamore Lane (KY)	B H Cox
117	5	4.0	3.0	2.6	5.5 Furl	Clm	Turf Firm	10	09-03-2018	  2/1#	McErin (KY)	J Servis
118	4	8.6	4.6	3.0	1 M		Clm	Turf Firm	9	09-03-2018	  7/2#	Dominant Strategy (KY)	C C Brown
119	4	15.0	8.3	5.8	1 1/16 M	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	10	09-03-2018	  10/1#	Princesa Carolina (KY)	K G McPeek
120	2	21.6	11.2	6.2	1 M		Clm	Turf Firm	11	09-03-2018	  10/1#	Bootlegger (FR)	R R Rodriguez
121	6	28.0	10.2	6.8	1 1/16 M	Stakes	Turf Firm	5	09-03-2018	  12/1#	Qurbaan (KY)	K P McLaughlin
122	12	17.0	6.3	5.3	1 M		Mdn Clm	Turf Firm	12	09-03-2018	  8/1#	Sunshine Gal (NY)	D Gargan
123	2	3.8	2.5	2.3	5.5 Furl	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	9	07-11-2019	  6/5#	Sayyaaf (KY)	C C Brown
124	2	5.9	3.6	2.8	1 M		Clm	Turf Firm	9	07-11-2019	  3/1#	Local Hero (KY)	M J Maker
125	8	31.4	11.6	7.6	5.5 Furl	Alw	Turf Good	9	07-11-2019	  10/1#	Light the Posse (NY)	C Baker
126	10	7.7	4.5	2.9	1 1/8 M		Alw Op CTurf Yielding	9	07-11-2019	  6/1#	Wegetsdamunnys (NY)	C Clement
127	4	4.8	3.2	2.6	5.5 Furl	Stakes	Turf Yielding	7	07-11-2019	  4/1#	Listing (CA)	B D Cecil
128	6	10.4	5.0	3.3	1 1/16 M	Alw Op CTurf Yielding	6	07-12-2019	  4/1#	Conquest Hardcandy (NY)	J T Ryerson
129	9	29.6	13.8	8.6	1 M		Stakes	Turf Yielding	10	07-12-2019	  15/1#	Mr Havercamp (ON)	C Day Phillips
130	5	9.2	4.2	3.5	5.5 Furl	Mdn Clm	Turf Good	10	07-13-2019	  5/2#	Lindas Ballet (NY)	L Rice
131	1	5.8	3.3	2.5	5.5 Furl	Alw	Turf Good	8	07-13-2019	  8/5#	Originator (KY)	I R Wilkes
132	3	7.9	4.1	2.7	1 1/16 M	Mdn SpclTurf Good	9	07-13-2019	  3/1#	Field Pass (MD)	M J Maker
133	6	7.4	3.4	2.5	5.5 Furl	Mdn SpclTurf Good	8	07-13-2019	  2/1#	Peaceful (KY)	J Thomas
134	4	5.8	3.2	2.2	1 1/8 M		Stakes	Turf Good	6	07-13-2019	  8/5#	Sistercharlie (IRE)	C C Brown
135	8	12.6	6.9	4.6	1 M		Clm	Turf Good	10	07-13-2019	  6/1#	Patriot Drive (KY)	D Gargan

52 Prices under $8	38.5%	Avg Win $	12.6			
		
ML Odds	Win/Att	Pct	Win Amt	Cost	P / L	Pct Return per $1			
5/2	11/46	23.9%	77.1	92	-14.9	-17%			
2/1	7/21	33.3%	39.6	42	-2.4	-6%			
7/2	12/67	17.9%	99.5	134	-34.5	-26%			
All/5	14/38	36.8%	58.3	76	-17.7	-24%

Sometimes it looks to good to be true and it usually is and that's the trap

TheOracle · 07-17-2019, 03:13 PM

Even money Morning Line Favorites (MLFs) have not done well on the Dirt at Saratoga

Code:

RowNum:	RaceDate:	Race_Num	Pgm_Num	Horse	RaceCond	TrackCond	Distance	Trainer	ML Odds	WPS	W$	P$	S$
1	07-23-2014	3rd race	5	Got Lucky (KY).  	Alw	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	T A Pletcher	1/1#	W	3.5	2.5	2.1
2	07-26-2014	3rd race	8	Aldrin (KY)	        Mdn SpclDirt Fast	6 Furl	C C Brown	1/1#				
3	08-02-2014	10th race	5	Palace Malice (KY)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	T A Pletcher	1/1#				
4	09-01-2014	5th race	1	Shimba (NY).     	Mdn SpclDirt Fast	6 Furl	C Clement	1/1#				
5	09-01-2014	5th race	1A	Readyheartandsoul (NY)	Mdn SpclDirt Fast	6 Furl	T Albertrani	1/1#	P		2.2	2.1
6	07-25-2015	4th race	1	Stay Tuned (KY)	  Str Alw	Fas6.5 F. url	W M Catalano	1/1#	P		2.6	2.3
7	07-29-2015	4th race	4	Judy the Beauty (ON)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	W A Ward	1/1#	S			2.1
8	08-21-2015	1st race	3	Surfspun (KY).    	Clm	Dirt Muddy	6 Furl	J C Englehart	1/1#	P		2.3	2.1
9	08-28-2015	3rd race	1	Temper Mint Patty (NY)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	T A Pletcher	1/1#	S			2.1
10	08-28-2015	5th race	4	Shes All Ready (NY)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	6.5 FurlJ T Ryerson	1/1#	W	2.6	2.2	2.1
11	08-29-2015	11th race	2	American Pharoah (KY)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 1/4 M	B Baffert	1/5#	P		2.4	2.1
12	08-30-2015	4th race	2	Vacation Spot (KY)	Mdn SpclDirt Fast	6 Furl	M J Maker	1/1#				
13	09-07-2015	7th race	4	Uncle Sigh (NY).	Alw	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	G C Contessa	1/1#				
14	08-20-2016	10th race	6	Songbird (KY)	        Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 1/4 M	J Hollendorfer	1/5#	W	2.4	2.1	
15	09-03-2016	10th race	3	Frosted (KY)	        Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	K P McLaughlin	1/2#	S			2.1
16	07-29-2017	10th race	1	Always Dreaming (KY)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	T A Pletcher	1/1#	S			2.9
17	07-30-2017	1st race	2	Paid Up Subscriber (KY)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	C C Brown	1/1#	W	3.3		
18	08-05-2017	11th race	7	Neolithic (KY).    	Alw Op CDirt Fast	7 Furl	T A Pletcher	1/1#	W	3.4	2.7	2.3
19	08-11-2017	1st race	5	La Inesperada (KY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	S M Asmussen	1/1#	S			2.3
20	08-25-2017	3rd race	2	Sunset Ridge (NY)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	C C Brown	1/5#	W	2.1	2.1	
21	09-02-2017	10th race	4	Pure Silver (NY).       Stakes	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	T A Pletcher	1/1#				
22	07-22-2018	1st race	2	Tied Up (KY)	        Clm	Dirt Good	6 Furl	T M Amoss	1/1#				
23	07-27-2018	9th race	1	Hofburg (KY)	        Stakes	Dirt Sloppy	1 1/8 M	W I Mott	1/2#	W	2.5	2.1	2.1
24	07-28-2018	10th race	5	Vino Rosso (KY).  	Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	T A Pletcher	1/1#	S			2.1
25	08-03-2018	3rd race	3	Sudden Surprise (NY)	Clm	Dirt Sloppy	6 Furl	G P Gullo	1/1#	P		2.8	2.2
26	08-04-2018	4th race	2	Vitsal (NY).        	Alw	Dirt Good	5.5 FurlB Colebrook	1/1#	P		5.1	3.0
27	08-09-2018	5th race	9	Potomac (KY)	        Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	B N Levine	1/1#	W	4.8	3.1	2.6
28	08-22-2018	2nd race	5	Promises Broken (KY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	E Kenneally	1/1#	W	2.9	2.4	2.1
29	07-12-2019	2nd race	13	Daddy Knows (NY)	Mdn SpclDirt Fast	1 1/8 M	L Rice	        1/1#	W	3.5	2.4	2.1
ML Odds	Strts	1st	2nds	3rds	Win %	Win $	Cost	Return	% Return						
1-	29	10	6	6	34.4%	$31	$58	$-27	-47%						
                                        WPS %	WPS $	Cost	Return	% Rtrn	Shw $
                                        75.8%	$112.8	$174	$-61.2	-36%	42.8

Although they have won their last 3 I have my doubts on this one in the 9th today at Saratoga

I don’t believe 4 wins in a row will happen today

Code:

1.    07-17-2019	9th race	6	Talk Veuve to Me (KY)	Allowance Optional Claiming	Six Furlongs	R Brisset	1/1#	Dirt

Let’s see if he gets the loss today

TheOracle · 07-18-2019, 07:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle

Even money Morning Line Favorites (MLFs) have not done well on the Dirt at Saratoga

Code:

RowNum:	RaceDate:	Race_Num	Pgm_Num	Horse	RaceCond	TrackCond	Distance	Trainer	ML Odds	WPS	W$	P$	S$
1	07-23-2014	3rd race	5	Got Lucky (KY).  	Alw	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	T A Pletcher	1/1#	W	3.5	2.5	2.1
2	07-26-2014	3rd race	8	Aldrin (KY)	        Mdn SpclDirt Fast	6 Furl	C C Brown	1/1#				
3	08-02-2014	10th race	5	Palace Malice (KY)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	T A Pletcher	1/1#				
4	09-01-2014	5th race	1	Shimba (NY).     	Mdn SpclDirt Fast	6 Furl	C Clement	1/1#				
5	09-01-2014	5th race	1A	Readyheartandsoul (NY)	Mdn SpclDirt Fast	6 Furl	T Albertrani	1/1#	P		2.2	2.1
6	07-25-2015	4th race	1	Stay Tuned (KY)	  Str Alw	Fas6.5 F. url	W M Catalano	1/1#	P		2.6	2.3
7	07-29-2015	4th race	4	Judy the Beauty (ON)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	W A Ward	1/1#	S			2.1
8	08-21-2015	1st race	3	Surfspun (KY).    	Clm	Dirt Muddy	6 Furl	J C Englehart	1/1#	P		2.3	2.1
9	08-28-2015	3rd race	1	Temper Mint Patty (NY)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	T A Pletcher	1/1#	S			2.1
10	08-28-2015	5th race	4	Shes All Ready (NY)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	6.5 FurlJ T Ryerson	1/1#	W	2.6	2.2	2.1
11	08-29-2015	11th race	2	American Pharoah (KY)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 1/4 M	B Baffert	1/5#	P		2.4	2.1
12	08-30-2015	4th race	2	Vacation Spot (KY)	Mdn SpclDirt Fast	6 Furl	M J Maker	1/1#				
13	09-07-2015	7th race	4	Uncle Sigh (NY).	Alw	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	G C Contessa	1/1#				
14	08-20-2016	10th race	6	Songbird (KY)	        Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 1/4 M	J Hollendorfer	1/5#	W	2.4	2.1	
15	09-03-2016	10th race	3	Frosted (KY)	        Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	K P McLaughlin	1/2#	S			2.1
16	07-29-2017	10th race	1	Always Dreaming (KY)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	T A Pletcher	1/1#	S			2.9
17	07-30-2017	1st race	2	Paid Up Subscriber (KY)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	C C Brown	1/1#	W	3.3		
18	08-05-2017	11th race	7	Neolithic (KY).    	Alw Op CDirt Fast	7 Furl	T A Pletcher	1/1#	W	3.4	2.7	2.3
19	08-11-2017	1st race	5	La Inesperada (KY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	S M Asmussen	1/1#	S			2.3
20	08-25-2017	3rd race	2	Sunset Ridge (NY)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	C C Brown	1/5#	W	2.1	2.1	
21	09-02-2017	10th race	4	Pure Silver (NY).       Stakes	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	T A Pletcher	1/1#				
22	07-22-2018	1st race	2	Tied Up (KY)	        Clm	Dirt Good	6 Furl	T M Amoss	1/1#				
23	07-27-2018	9th race	1	Hofburg (KY)	        Stakes	Dirt Sloppy	1 1/8 M	W I Mott	1/2#	W	2.5	2.1	2.1
24	07-28-2018	10th race	5	Vino Rosso (KY).  	Stakes	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	T A Pletcher	1/1#	S			2.1
25	08-03-2018	3rd race	3	Sudden Surprise (NY)	Clm	Dirt Sloppy	6 Furl	G P Gullo	1/1#	P		2.8	2.2
26	08-04-2018	4th race	2	Vitsal (NY).        	Alw	Dirt Good	5.5 FurlB Colebrook	1/1#	P		5.1	3.0
27	08-09-2018	5th race	9	Potomac (KY)	        Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	B N Levine	1/1#	W	4.8	3.1	2.6
28	08-22-2018	2nd race	5	Promises Broken (KY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	E Kenneally	1/1#	W	2.9	2.4	2.1
29	07-12-2019	2nd race	13	Daddy Knows (NY)	Mdn SpclDirt Fast	1 1/8 M	L Rice	        1/1#	W	3.5	2.4	2.1
ML Odds	Strts	1st	2nds	3rds	Win %	Win $	Cost	Return	% Return						
1-	29	10	6	6	34.4%	$31	$58	$-27	-47%						
                                        WPS %	WPS $	Cost	Return	% Rtrn	Shw $
                                        75.8%	$112.8	$174	$-61.2	-36%	42.8

Although they have won their last 3 I have my doubts on this one in the 9th today at Saratoga

I don’t believe 4 wins in a row will happen today

Code:

1.    07-17-2019	9th race	6	Talk Veuve to Me (KY)	Allowance Optional Claiming	Six Furlongs	R Brisset	1/1#	Dirt

Let’s see if he gets the loss today

We sniffed out a bad day from the even Money Morning Line Favorites (MLFs) yesterday as #6 Talk Veuve to Me finished 3rd

Code:

1	2019-07-17	9th race	6	Talk Veuve to Me (KY)	Allowance Optional Claiming	Six Furlongs	R Brisset	1/1#	Dirt Muddy	0.0	0.0	2.7

A $2.70 show price for an even Money MLF is pretty rare

Let's see how the even Money MLFs do at Saratoga for the rest of the season