2019 Breeder's Cup

[Tom]

Where will it be held this year?

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Tom

Where will it be held this year?

Voted SA as planned, but a switch of plans to hold the BC @ Churchill would shock me less than the changeover to synthetic(2000s) tracks did.


Tongue in cheek vote = PIMLICO!

[bob60566]

San Anita as planned

[FenceBored]

Is CD safer? Somebody around here mentioned that they've been having their own issues since the beginning of May, and that rash of deaths last September would be brought up by the press.


CDI doesn't make public the Equine Injury Database stats from any of their properties except Presque Isle.


If Del Mar said they could take it short notice and their meet doesn't have a similar spike in fatalities to Santa Anita's then I think the BC would lean there.

[Redboard]

They are going to have three months to get the surface ready at Santa Anita, since there will be no racing or training there at that time. No need to panic.

[AlsoEligible]

Originally Posted by FenceBored

Is CD safer? Somebody around here mentioned that they've been having their own issues since the beginning of May, and that rash of deaths last September would be brought up by the press.


CDI doesn't make public the Equine Injury Database stats from any of their properties except Presque Isle.


If Del Mar said they could take it short notice and their meet doesn't have a similar spike in fatalities to Santa Anita's then I think the BC would lean there.

CD has the highest fatality rate in North American racing, so I wouldn't say it's safer. Moving it there would be purely about public perception.

I'm sure Del Mar could take it on 3 months notice (assuming BC waits to see how their meet turns out), but you also have to factor in all those who have already booked travel, and will be booking their travel over the next couple months. BC doesn't want to pull the rug out from under all those people at the last minute, although rerouting from LA to San Diego is significantly easier than say, LA to Louisville.

If they're going to announce a move, I think it has to be by the end of this month when their board meets. If I had to bet on it, my guess is that they'll stick with SA, and just hope that some of these headlines are out of the news (and the publics' mind) 5 months from now.

[FenceBored]

Originally Posted by AlsoEligible

CD has the highest fatality rate in North American racing, so I wouldn't say it's safer. Moving it there would be purely about public perception.

Unless you can point to a reputable and complete listing of all tracks, like an internal list from the Jockey Club's EID data, that's garbage.

[The_Turf_Monster]

This isn't the triple crown where random eyes are the bulk of viewers, the breeders cup is largely for horseplayers and horsemen outside of the Classic. There could be 5 breakdowns if it's held at any track outside of California and get hardly a mention in the media. They'll remove it from California for that reason imo. The Breeders Cup was created to pump the breeding industry iirc, and they're smart enough to stop poking the bear in California

[AlsoEligible]

Originally Posted by FenceBored

Unless you can point to a reputable and complete listing of all tracks, like an internal list from the Jockey Club's EID data, that's garbage.

Correction, CD is not the highest, just the second-highest (behind Hawthorne) of tracks that actually report the number.

https://www.courier-journal.com/stor...es/3284846002/

My actual point still stands: moving to CD would be purely about public perception, not about moving racing to a safer venue.

[FenceBored]

Originally Posted by AlsoEligible

Correction, CD is not the highest, just the second-highest (behind Hawthorne) of tracks that actually report the number.

https://www.courier-journal.com/stor...es/3284846002/

My actual point still stands: moving to CD would be purely about public perception, not about moving racing to a safer venue.

That is a misleading article.

Take a look at the full list of tracks that report to the EID database, at all the tracks that don't publicly release their data. That's about 75% of the tracks that we the public don't know the figures for.

http://www.jockeyclub.com/default.as...vocacy&area=11

The highest single year figure in the EID is 10.56 at Stockton on the California Fair circuit in 2014 (3 deaths from 284 starts). Does that mean that Stockton had the most dangerous dirt track in America? No, I doubt it did, that year or any other year. Some years Stockton has zero deaths, sometimes one. With the low number of starters any death spikes the rate above what the larger tracks see.

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by The_Turf_Monster

This isn't the triple crown wh...........There could be 5 breakdowns if it's held at any track outside of California and get hardly a mention in the media. They'll remove it from California for that reason imo. The Breeders Cup was created to pump the breeding industry iirc, and they're smart enough to stop poking the bear in California

I'm not so sure about that. Moving it will get attention and I could see the media ridiculing the BC for moving it to a more dangerous venue. To think that this firestorm would be extinguished by moving is a bet I wouldn't make.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by FenceBored

all the tracks that don't publicly release their data. That's about 75% of the tracks that we the public don't know the figures for.

Big surprise! Lack of transparency in U.S. racing.

Yet, so many people here commenting on what is safe and not safe.... even though they are missing 75% of the actual data.

Imagine making medical or financial decisions for yourself or your family, when only being given 75% of the actual information you need.

[burnsy]

It shouldn’t be there to begin with. Has nothing to do with the current falderal. The entire intent of the BC was to showcase different tracks. Over the years that became a total farce. It moves around to like 2 or 3 sites. Plus, it’s horse racing, the circumstances of the game make it hard to call one race a World Championship. Which is just another ploy. I sort of think the entire deal has outlived its purpose. It’s basically a hype machine now.

There’s two other issues involved here. If people raise objections to bringing their horses to SA and if the state steps in before hand. If California starts meddling and indications are they are on the brink. Then the “ you know what” really hits the fan.

It’s hilarious how people still think this is just going to go away out there. The stats and all the crap people quote means not a God Damn thing. It’s political and a public spectacle now.

[Dream_Police]

Yes they have a few months until the BC but one must remember that this will be on national television and if they don't get things fixed the bell will be tolling for thee if they have an incident on one or both of the days.

I remember Belmont park when they hosted the BC and that was the year that they had a horse(Mr Purple ?) had a heart attack or something during a race and it was the same year that Go For Wand had that horrific breakdown and that day has faded into the past but I think the SA deal is in the paper almost everyday and has been reported on constantly that this is a different situation.

[Dream_Police]

https://www.npr.org/2019/06/08/73089...-deaths-secret