Top Ten Derby Contenders

[jay68802]

This year is fun. Choices, choices, choices...


Maximum Security No doubt in my mind is one of the best of the bunch. A lot has been made of the "slow" pace of his last race. If you consider him a horse that can only win from the front it is a concern. But I think he went for a stalking position and when Hidden scroll did not fire for the lead, was the front runner by default.

Omaha Beach High cruising speed and another good one. Big question in my mind is the distance. Kept impressing me more with each race.

Tacticus Did not believe in him at first. Last race changed my mind.

Bodexpress Lightly raced and improving with distance. A wild card for sure, but worth consideration.

Tax Hard to knock this guy. Game runs for another Maiden Claimer.

- Baffert trio of Roadster,Game Winner, and Improbable. The last two have not improved much over their two yr old races.

By My Standards Seems to be a cut below the others but can improve.

Haikal Pace dependent and that is the main concern.

As always, other opinions and insults are invited.

[f2tornado]

Omaha Beach - Has done nothing wrong and has beat the best. Top TimeformUS and near top final 3/8th. Hard to believe Smith doesn't ride this one. War Front is really the only question mark but didn't show any limitation in the Ark.

Maximum Security - Only reason I don't have him #1 is OB has beat more. There will be more pace at CD however I don't believe it will be hot. This guy might be one that could go around twice. Is Saez a Derby winning pilot?

Improbable - Stayed within a length of OB in the Ark after the second call. Irad a big plus. Not worried about his gate antics as I am his gate speed.

Game Winner - If you go by Thorograph then this one is sitting pretty. Was a little soft closing at SA after a goofy, potentially scripted, ride by JR. Won the BCJ at CD; horse for course angle.

Tacitus - That Wood run was solid. Hotter pace and he closed well as he should have. His style has not been winning recent Derby renewals and the Wood has been cold for longer.
Tax - Three 9F races with solid Timeform and Brisnet figures. Female family 1-x is no joke. Logical gimmicks bomber.

Roadster - Won the SA albeit with relative par figures. Got a bit lucky GW was getting a goofy ride while the 3/4-mile fraction backed off 1.78 seconds. He doesn't get that gift in KY as others start accelerating. Value goes down if no Smith.

Spinoff - Under the radar TAP horse. Value goes down if JV goes elsewhere.

Country House - He's really not that far behind the top but cannot seem to catch up to them.

Haikal - A more accomplished clone of Commanding Curve.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Top 2:
Maximum Security
Omaha Beach

Next Top 2 if by any reason both the above are scratched:
Tacitus
Roadster

Bottom of all exotics:
Game Winner
Tax
Improbable
Bodexpress
Haikal
Vekoma

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by jay68802

This year is fun. Choices, choices, choices...


Maximum Security No doubt in my mind is one of the best of the bunch. A lot has been made of the "slow" pace of his last race. If you consider him a horse that can only win from the front it is a concern. But I think he went for a stalking position and when Hidden scroll did not fire for the lead, was the front runner by default.

Omaha Beach High cruising speed and another good one. Big question in my mind is the distance. Kept impressing me more with each race.

Tacticus Did not believe in him at first. Last race changed my mind.

Bodexpress Lightly raced and improving with distance. A wild card for sure, but worth consideration.

Tax Hard to knock this guy. Game runs for another Maiden Claimer.

- Baffert trio of Roadster,Game Winner, and Improbable. The last two have not improved much over their two yr old races.

By My Standards Seems to be a cut below the others but can improve.

Haikal Pace dependent and that is the main concern.

As always, other opinions and insults are invited.

I can't fault your list, I think its pretty solid. Baffert has the internet "fan boy" factor so this year I think his horses are going to be over bet. His bunch has not really been destroying the comp this year and odds are, you won't win every year. People get on a bandwagon and somehow they think the same thing can happen every year.....it rarely does.

The top horse could be anything. A Gulfstream Park flash or a freak. I agree with you on the pace factor too. None of these preps have had a really smoking pace with the exception of the Gotham. The horse does his own pace with ease and comes home fast. If he gets left in the Derby he probably has no shot,,,,,but if hes in the first tier, he can win this thing on current form. And by chance, he gets an easy walk on the lead....even better. The way this horse moved through the ranks is impressive and that last race was a doosy. Until he loses hes a freak. And, as of this time the price might be right. I can't bet some of these others if this horse has a higher return.

Praise here, no insults. Just hope a few of these make the gate and are the right price.

[clicknow]

3 weeks out I am only looking for the Win spot, then will filter in the exotics later. For the Win spot only right now I have:

War of Will
Tax
Improbable
Vekoma
Win Win Win
Code of Honor
Haikal
Game Winner (totally dependent on track condition)

Haven't looked at Grey Magician or Master Fencer yet

So much of my ticket depends on track condition (wet or dry).

[biggestal99]

1. Roadster
2. Omaha Beach
3. Win Win Win
4. Game Winner
5. Improbable
6. Vekoma
7. Maximum Security


and 2 pace dependent clunkers


8. Haikal
9. Tax


Allan

[Afleet]

Omaha Beach
Game Winner
Win x3
Improbable
Country House
Roadster
Tax
War of Will

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by clicknow

3 weeks out I am only looking for the Win spot, then will filter in the exotics later. For the Win spot only right now I have:

War of Will
Tax
Improbable
Vekoma
Win Win Win
Code of Honor
Haikal
Game Winner (totally dependent on track condition)

Haven't looked at Grey Magician or Master Fencer yet

So much of my ticket depends on track condition (wet or dry).

I think Game Winner will run on any type of track

[jay68802]

Funny how much difference there is from year to year. Last year at this time I had one choice, and was busy trying to plan how to wager. This year, I am not comfortable. Just looking at this thread I think 15 different horses have been mentioned. So, I must not be all alone with this feeling.

Things that make me uncomfortable:

Maximum Passes the eye test, but how many times have we seen horses that impress with low pace figures go out too fast and fail.

Omaha Beach And "Bang" he's a good horse, but not really the best pace and speed figure combination to get a mile and a quarter.

Tacticus Running style is trouble prone.

Bodexpress I am considering a Maiden? I am nuts, you can't do that in the Derby, can you?

Tax Sort of a steady eddie type that needs help from other horses.

Roadster Baffert thought a lot of him early. Did just beat Game Winner. But only one race with a good set up to really base your opinion on.

Game Winner Last two races are solid, but losing efforts with no real improvement from his two yr old races.

Improbable Same as Game Winner.

By My Standards Really did not pass the eye test, but I have been wrong before with this.

Haikal The last race.

War of Will Has to come in off works, not good.

Win Win Win Trip dependent in a 20 horse field.

Country House Same as Win Win Win

Vekoma If his front left goes any higher and outside his body, he is going get high centered on the rail.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Vekoma If his front left goes any higher and outside his body, he is going get high centered on the rail.

The Pamplemousse reincarnated?

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

The Pamplemousse reincarnated?

I was not interested in betting his last race, when they hit the stretch I blurted out "WTF is that? That's Vekoma?" One of the most interesting and ugly running styles I have ever seen.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by jay68802

I was not interested in betting his last race, when they hit the stretch I blurted out "WTF is that? That's Vekoma?" One of the most interesting and ugly running styles I have ever seen.

yea,


this is one i screen capped from his Nashua last november

he 'swims' with his left whenever he's on his right lead. This photo is a little more emphasized because he has just changed leads, and he has an explosive lead-change.

Was against in the Foy, but his numbers weren't terrible that day. Bluegrass was kind of on a silver platter for his taking, and he even got a good trip.

All that in mind, he's still somewhat interesting as a mostly-dismissed horse whose numbers are solid.

Fast is fast. It's not a beauty contest. But, will he respond well, and run 'his race', while under the most pressure and distance he's yet to face?

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Afleet

I think Game Winner will run on any type of track

I happen to think a wet track will impair his ability to win. Besides, I've spent $$ on, and fallen for just about every Candy Ride that ever ran in the Derby, and I'm kinda "done with them". I put Vekoma down in my list because it asked for 10 but he's just Reride to me, actually.
I do like Game Winner for the Belmont though.

[jocko699]

Originally Posted by clicknow

I happen to think a wet track will impair his ability to win. Besides, I've spent $$ on, and fallen for just about every Candy Ride that ever ran in the Derby, and I'm kinda "done with them". I put Vekoma down in my list because it asked for 10 but he's just Reride to me, actually.
I do like Game Winner for the Belmont though.

Bourbon War is my play in the Belmont!

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by jocko699

Bourbon War is my play in the Belmont!

I have a few pencilled in.......he's a good one. Hoping Maker enters Dunph. 1-1/16th is no good for him. I love Mucho Gusto for that race, too. Game Winner would be perfect in the Belmont, too. I don't love him to win the derby. I also have Country House.