Beat the MLFavorite

[coachv30]

MONTICELLO

Win Bets

Race 1
$4
$2
$3

Race 2
$3
$2
$4

Race 3
$3
$2
$4

[Ray2000]

Coach, you might find this helpful in picking a track to play.
I posted it a while ago but can't find it now.
It's how the Morning Line Pick faired at different tracks, mid 2017-mid2018
It's possible the track has changed their ML guy or method since then.
Also it's best to compare half mile to half mile, 5/8 to 5/8 and mile to mile
because it is somewhat field size dependent.

Track.....Races.....Strike.....ROI
HAR........675.....47.7%.....0.921
FHLD.......660.....43.9%.....0.820
DD.........935.....41.6%.....0.861
NFLD......2624.....41.4%.....0.824
MR........1500.....41.2%.....0.824
HAW........725.....40.0%.....0.917
PHL.......2021.....39.4%.....0.861
BR.........746.....39.0%.....0.876
STGA......1672.....38.3%.....0.828
PCD.......1577.....37.8%.....0.854
MEA.......2201.....37.8%.....0.901
PRC.......1164.....37.7%.....0.827
LON.......1018.....37.4%.....0.813
PPK........810.....37.4%.....0.837
RCR........614.....37.3%.....1.016
BTVA.......714.....37.1%.....0.816
TGDN.......528.....36.9%.....0.899
YR........2442.....36.1%.....0.834
M..........727.....36.0%.....0.778
SCD.......1002.....35.5%.....0.859
VD.........647.....35.2%.....0.806
HOP.......1772.....34.5%.....0.763
LEX........286.....34.3%.....0.699
WDB........682.....33.7%.....0.882
RIDC.......849.....33.7%.....0.713
CALX.......430.....33.5%.....0.767
GRVR.......458.....32.8%.....0.732
WBSB......1099.....32.6%.....0.807
DTN.......1007.....32.3%.....0.841
MVR........794.....32.2%.....0.804
FLMD......1125.....32.1%.....0.701
GEOD.......342.....31.0%.....0.672

[coachv30]

Thanks for the info Ray...ill look it over.

[coachv30]

Doesnt look like MR is the best place to do this.

[coachv30]

HARRINGTON 3

$5
$3
$5

[coachv30]

Originally Posted by coachv30

HARRINGTON 3

$5
$3
$5 ($13.50)

WAGERED- $13
RETURNED- $13.50

Playing live so I am betting against Post Time odds opposed to ML.

[coachv30]

HARRINGTON 4

$5
$3
$3

[Longshot6977]

Originally Posted by coachv30

HARRINGTON 2

$5
$3
$5

Maybe I'm looking at this the wrong way. But wouldn't you want to play Georgia Downs or Flamboro instead since the ML favorite wins there only 31% or 32.1% of the time, and you're trying to 'beat the ML fav'? Or maybe you're just concentrating on the higher ROI at Harrington? Does that mean the ML fav wins xx% of the time no matter what the off odds are, even much higher? Maybe Ray can elaborate on his chart. Sorry for the dumb question guys.

[coachv30]

BUFFALO 2

$3
$2
$5
$3

[coachv30]

Originally Posted by Longshot6977

Maybe I'm looking at this the wrong way. But wouldn't you want to play Georgia Downs or Flamboro instead since the ML favorite wins there only 31% or 32.1% of the time, and you're trying to 'beat the ML fav'? Or maybe you're just concentrating on the higher ROI at Harrington? Does that mean the ML fav wins xx% of the time no matter what the off odds are, even much higher? Maybe Ray can elaborate on his chart. Sorry for the dumb question guys.

I don't have Georgian Downs on my ADW and FLM isn't running...I'm looking for some ACTION now I realize Harrington is at the top of Ray's list but I figured if I keep my bets minimal I may be able to find a few prices. Buffalo always seems like a chalkfest.

[coachv30]

Originally Posted by coachv30

HARRINGTON 4

$5
$3
$3

nosed the and wins as fav.

[coachv30]

HARRINGTON 5

$3
$5

BUFFALO 3

$4
$3

[coachv30]

HARRINGTON 6

$3
$5