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Old 04-19-2019, 08:37 AM   #1
Blenheim
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The Elusive $uperfecta

2000 - $1,635
2001 - $62,986
2002 - $91,764
2003 - $2,795
2004 - $41,380
2005 - $864,253
2006 - $84,860
2007 - $29,046
2008 - $58,737
2009 - $557,006
2010 - $202,569
2011 - $48,126
2012 - $96,092
2013 - $57,084
2014 - $15,383
2015 - $634
2016 - $542
2017 - $75,974
2018 - $19,618
Aver -$121,604

Considering the Principle of Maximum Confusion, I think this year may be another six figure year.
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Old 04-19-2019, 09:17 AM   #2
PowerUpPaynter
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yeah was thinking of doing a bunch of $16 tix formatted like this:



a,b w/ a,b,c w/ c,d,e, w / c,d,e
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Old 04-19-2019, 10:08 AM   #3
Blenheim
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$uper $uperfecta

Considering how close the competition is this year, the finish could go a lot of different ways . . . The post position draw coupled w/the condition of the racetrack surface may be particularly critical this year; it'll be interesting to watch the works starting tomorrow morning and how the prospects take to the surface.
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Old 04-19-2019, 10:37 AM   #4
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For giggles, all of the above that hit over $75,000 contained:

2017: Always Dreaming (4 to 1), Looking At Lee (33 to 1), Battle of Midway (40 to 1), Classic Empire (8 to 1). For context only five horses had higher odds than BOW and only seven higher than LAL.

2012: I’ll Have Another (15 to 1), Bodemeister (4 to 1), Dullahan (12 to 1), Went The Day Well (30 to 1). For context weak favorite was Bodemeister, but the second through 5th choices did not hit board.

2010: Super Saver (8 to 1), Ice Box (11 to1), Paddy OPrado (12 to 1), Make Music for Me (30 to 1). For context, favorite did not hit board, lots of weakly backed eight to one to 12 to one horses, MMFM second highest odds.

2009: Mine That Bird (50 to 1), Pioneer of the Nile (6 to 1), Musket Man (19 to 1), Papa Clem (12 to 1). For context the favorite finished next to last and only one horse had higher odds then the winner.

2006: Barbaro (6 to 1), Bluegrass Cat (30 to 1), Steppenwolfer (16 to 1), Jazil (24 to 1). For context, favorite did not hit board, horses that finished 2nd thru 4th were eighth choice or higher.

2005: Giacomo (50 to 1), Closing Argument (71 to 1), Afleet Alex (4 to 1), Don’t Get Mad (29 to 1). For context, the top three choices took a lot of money. And then all heck broke loose.

2002: War Emblem (20 to 1), Proud Citizen (23 to 1), Perfect Drift (7 to 1), Medaglia dOro (6 to 1). For context, top two choices did not hit board. War Emblem was the ninth choice.
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Old 04-19-2019, 10:54 AM   #5
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Old 04-19-2019, 10:56 AM   #6
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TAHBL

Quote:
Originally Posted by gov135 View Post
For giggles, all of the above that hit over $75,000 contained:

2017: Always Dreaming (4 to 1), Looking At Lee (33 to 1), Battle of Midway (40 to 1), Classic Empire (8 to 1). For context only five horses had higher odds than BOW and only seven higher than LAL.

2012: I’ll Have Another (15 to 1), Bodemeister (4 to 1), Dullahan (12 to 1), Went The Day Well (30 to 1). For context weak favorite was Bodemeister, but the second through 5th choices did not hit board.

2010: Super Saver (8 to 1), Ice Box (11 to1), Paddy OPrado (12 to 1), Make Music for Me (30 to 1). For context, favorite did not hit board, lots of weakly backed eight to one to 12 to one horses, MMFM second highest odds.

2009: Mine That Bird (50 to 1), Pioneer of the Nile (6 to 1), Musket Man (19 to 1), Papa Clem (12 to 1). For context the favorite finished next to last and only one horse had higher odds then the winner.

2006: Barbaro (6 to 1), Bluegrass Cat (30 to 1), Steppenwolfer (16 to 1), Jazil (24 to 1). For context, favorite did not hit board, horses that finished 2nd thru 4th were eighth choice or higher.

2005: Giacomo (50 to 1), Closing Argument (71 to 1), Afleet Alex (4 to 1), Don’t Get Mad (29 to 1). For context, the top three choices took a lot of money. And then all heck broke loose.

2002: War Emblem (20 to 1), Proud Citizen (23 to 1), Perfect Drift (7 to 1), Medaglia dOro (6 to 1). For context, top two choices did not hit board. War Emblem was the ninth choice.
Well done.

Once again for giggles . . .

I think this year w/Omaha Beach and Maximum Security . . . if they hook and go fast early then flame out late, I think we'll have the 05' scenario, what you have appropriately described as " . . . the top three choices took a lot of money. Then all heck broke loose." (TAHBL)
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Old 04-19-2019, 11:23 AM   #7
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That one last year really surprised me on how well it paid. Had a guy at our OTB that hit it with a 2x2x4x6 ticket with the 4 horses in third also in fourth with two others and one of them was the long shot (forgot his name). He played a half dozen tickets like that but with the same 2 horses first and second.
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Old 04-19-2019, 11:32 AM   #8
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That one last year really surprised me on how well it paid. Had a guy at our OTB that hit it with a 2x2x4x6 ticket with the 4 horses in third also in fourth with two others and one of them was the long shot (forgot his name). He played a half dozen tickets like that but with the same 2 horses first and second.
Instilled Regard (iirc).

Think he was a big price, but had a better chance to maybe get a piece than he did to win(which is often valuable in the spr)... Pretty sure 'My Boy Jack' was 5th? which would have killed the payout in comparison.

$1 Minimums for Derby Superfectas vs. the 10cent minimums. There's some debate about whether the dime unit affects payouts, but it's pretty clear that at least in the Derby, the higher unit boosts payouts.
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Old 04-19-2019, 12:44 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter View Post
yeah was thinking of doing a bunch of $16 tix formatted like this:



a,b w/ a,b,c w/ c,d,e, w / c,d,e

Thats how I ALMOST scored big.


super saver/Ice Box/Paddy O'prado/and Ouch lookin at Lucky.


Allan
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Old 04-19-2019, 01:20 PM   #10
PowerUpPaynter
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Originally Posted by Blenheim View Post
Well done.

Once again for giggles . . .

I think this year w/Omaha Beach and Maximum Security . . . if they hook and go fast early then flame out late, I think we'll have the 05' scenario, what you have appropriately described as " . . . the top three choices took a lot of money. Then all heck broke loose." (TAHBL)
Haikal from the clouds.... bombs away...
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Old 04-19-2019, 05:50 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Blenheim View Post
Well done.

Once again for giggles . . .

I think this year w/Omaha Beach and Maximum Security . . . if they hook and go fast early then flame out late, I think we'll have the 05' scenario


Last edited by boys at tosconova; 04-19-2019 at 05:51 PM.
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