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Old 02-06-2018, 01:28 PM   #196
Poindexter
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Of course people are leaving the game...they've been leaving the game for 50-60-70 years...

If the CRW teams and the whales NEVER EXISTED, I dare say the game would be on extreme life-support right now, existing in only the biggest markets.

So it's kind of a catch-22...you kill the whales now, you really kill the handle and you kill the game even more. And if the whales never existed, the declining fan base would have happened anyway (since it was already happening before the whales and CRWs)...thus the sport would still be screwed.

So what to do?

I answered that earlier and I have been answering that question for 3 years. You lower take to 8-10-12 percent and eliminate all rebates and the Whales will still feed, and the fish will be playing a game that they consider fair and will stick around. A good portion of the fish will probaby delude themselve into thinking they are winning when they are not. Amongst the non whlaes will be a large group of Players that will become earners. Players that might make 3 to 7% roi each year(they can't do it in todays game without big rebates but they will be able to do it in the game I propose). Yes these players will make the game worse for the fish, but that is the game we play. The game in it's natural state is sustainable. The game altered with rebates is not. It is obviously sustainable for quite a while, because this has been going on for close to 20 years, but I think we have finallly reaching the point where the next 20 years is going to be a heck of a lot more challenging then the last 20. Especially if the kind of talent that Ian is talking about is going to enter the game.

Why exactly should the fan base be declining? Why should betting be going down or remain stagant? Anybody can watch and bet a race from anywhere now. You used to have to live somewhere near a racetrack or otb.......If we were dealing with a fair game as I propose, then everyone who likes to gamble would be interested. Whether they would become horseplayers long term, who knows, but they certainly wouldn't shut the door before they bet their first race as most intelligent gamblers currently do.

Why do you and this industry feel that the general public is so willing to take it so for up the you know what. Just like if I have a poker game every week and every week me and my buddy Joe are big winners and the rest of the 8 guys, lose, lose, lose, it doesn't take long for the other 8 guys to leave the game.

People do not mind gambling and losing. People do not like being shafted. In today's game they are being shafted. Plain and simple.

I don't have a problem with Whales. They are playing the same game I am, if they are using computers to do it faster, so be it. If they are betting more money so be it. If they are smarter than me so be it. As mentioned, they are wrong plenty. I have a problem with Whales or anymone else being rebated. Because that changes the game and makes it unbeatable for almost everyone else who isn't. That makes for a game that cannot possibly grow and with all the competion out there that will lead to the demise of racing.
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Old 02-06-2018, 02:12 PM   #197
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Whether they would become horseplayers long term, who knows, but they certainly wouldn't shut the door before they bet their first race as most intelligent gamblers currently do.
Why in the world would intelligent gamblers shut the door on racing if they see these "teams" raking in millions each year?

That proves right there the game is beatable, either by getting rebates themselves (which isn't all that hard to do) or figuring out a better way to peel the onion (which is what intelligent people do).

You can play alongside these "teams" and win. Just like you can trade the financial markets alongside all those high frequency bots and win.
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Old 02-06-2018, 02:20 PM   #198
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One problem is how to adapt it. Atm it's rather a question of luck when you bet into the pools. Good luck = the odds of your horse rise, bad luck = the odds of your horse drop. Nobody knows which horse the bot will bet down, probably not even the whales know it.
What I don't get is why they have to bomb the pools in the very last second. This seems craven and unfair. I don't think it would make much difference if some parts of the smaller bets came in after the whales action. The 2$, 10$ and not even the 100$ bettors will change the odds dramatically. The whales change the odds, so they should give the horse players a chance to react to these odds. Or wager at an offshore bookie where they don't influence the odds.

Btw i think this is somehow similar to what these whales are doing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage_betting
It has been pointed out on this board that the will pays from other bets (DDs, P3s, P4s) give you a decent guess as to which way the odds are going to go. It certainly isn't ideal but it beats leaving it to chance.
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Old 02-06-2018, 02:57 PM   #199
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Why in the world would intelligent gamblers shut the door on racing if they see these "teams" raking in millions each year?

That proves right there the game is beatable, either by getting rebates themselves (which isn't all that hard to do) or figuring out a better way to peel the onion (which is what intelligent people do).

You can play alongside these "teams" and win. Just like you can trade the financial markets alongside all those high frequency bots and win.
I am talking about normal, small scale gamblers. Guys that start with a $10,000 Poker Bankrolll and sports betting bankroll and try and grow a roll. Let me refresh your memory in case you miss Ian's post.

As posted by Ian:

3. CAW teams sink millions of dollars into developing their models and will labor for YEARS spending money collecting and analyzing data before they make even one bet. I’m not going to call out anyone specifically but there are guys on this board and others like it (including Twitter) that bitch if they have to pay for PPs and you believe that you’re going to be on a level playing field with guys that spend $50,000+ a year on back data? Last year alone I made $75,000 of data purchases on behalf of U.S. & International CAW clients.

4. I’m not trying to sound harsh; the guys that make up CAW teams are a lot smarter than you are. They’re a lot smarter than I am too and I’m a well-educated guy. These guys are rocket scientists, literally. One guy I know on a start-up team I’m working with has a dual PHD in Nuclear Physics and Aeronautical Engineering. Don’t you think that is some kind of advantage when you’re working with numerical data? Dave Schwartz is a brilliant guy, smarter than I am and has worked with teams in the past. I know he can attest to how hard this is.



This job opportunity is not exactly open to everyone. Huge startup costs, huge educational requirements and technical knowledge. These are teams of
very smart people and then you have to have a huge betting bankroll on top of that.

I am not saying that guys like Ultracapper cannot raise themsleves to be huge profit makers in this game. Of course they can. I believe poster Bacornswitchfarm did so himself. Of course it can be done. But when other
winning gamblers (poker players, dfs players, sports bettors,....) look at this game and look at the other games, most of them are choosing the other games and are doing so for a very good reason. Also even though a few can rise up in todays game, for the masses it is going to be the same old song year after year, -20 to -30% before breakage. When they can lose a fraction of that playing other games, I wonder where there gambling dollar ends up?

How do you play alongside these teams and win? Do I call Ian and say I want to become an investor or would like a daily ridealong. Maybe they will program my laptop to make 1000 bets in a 1/4 of a second? Moreover if they are getting 18% rebates and I am getting a 7% rebate in a trifecta, they win and I lose. I don't want to follow them anyways, I want to bet against them. But I can't even do that in today's game because I don't who the heck they bet until the far turn.

I get it, your mantra is adapt or die. That Mantra would apply just as well if they eliminated rebates and lowered takeout to the propler levels. But in todays game too many are dying and too few adapting and the result is the game will not sustain long term. In the game I propose that would not be the case. That is the difference.

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Old 02-06-2018, 03:49 PM   #200
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I posted 500+ real-time plays on here not so long ago and showed a profit (yeah, it was a small one...4-5% I think...)...while these teams are active...this shows me a small player can still make a profit in this game WITHOUT rebates...

AND MY METHOD OF PLAY WAS TO BET OVERLAYS on my line...something people are saying is IMPOSSIBLE TO DO NOW WITH CRWs KILLING ODDS AFTER THE GATE OPENS.

It was NEVER EASY to win at this game....NEVER

It's not easy now...but it certainly isn't impossible.

I think the majority of folks railing against these CRWs are WAY overstating their impact on the small player to make a profit.

Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 02-06-2018 at 03:51 PM.
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Old 02-06-2018, 04:26 PM   #201
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I posted 500+ real-time plays on here not so long ago and showed a profit (yeah, it was a small one...4-5% I think...)...while these teams are active...this shows me a small player can still make a profit in this game WITHOUT rebates...

AND MY METHOD OF PLAY WAS TO BET OVERLAYS on my line...something people are saying is IMPOSSIBLE TO DO NOW WITH CRWs KILLING ODDS AFTER THE GATE OPENS.

It was NEVER EASY to win at this game....NEVER

It's not easy now...but it certainly isn't impossible.

I think the majority of folks railing against these CRWs are WAY overstating their impact on the small player to make a profit.
Either you are very good or you had a very good run. If you post another 500 plays starting today and have similar results you are likely very good at this game. On the other hand, maybe on your next sample of 500 horse you will regress to your mean(whatever that may be or worse yet have a sample as bad as the first sample was good, maybe losing 50% on the dollar).

That doesn't change the fact that the numbers make it clear that the majority of horseplayers are going to lose 20-30% on the dollar. Perhaps you also missed this post by Ian.

Having been on the other side of the fence and having seen the average gambling performance of customers this entire discussion is amusing to me in a lot of ways. Many were losing at 30% or more yet I'd see them on PA and other forums bitching about how their rebates weren't high enough or complaining about breakage.

That is just further confirmation that I am fairly accurate in my assessment.

So the only question that matters is whether that business model(your average patron losing 25% + breakage) is conducive to the long term growth and success of racing. IMO, the answer is absolutely not, when they can lose less than 5% on table games and 8% on slots and 4.5% on sports betting and 10-12% on dfs.


By the way, I agree this game has never been easy and it will not become easy even if rebates were eliminated this week. It would just be a better game and a lot more enjoyable for everyone.
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Old 02-06-2018, 04:31 PM   #202
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I experienced one of the worst run-outs of my life during that 500+ race public display...I think I was up close to 10% after 400 plays, but lost my last 25-30 something races in a row...so I didn't get that lucky...
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Old 02-06-2018, 04:34 PM   #203
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Why would I want to make a bet knowing full well that the odds can be cut in half after the gate opens?
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Old 02-06-2018, 04:40 PM   #204
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Why would you want to make a bet knowing the jock could fall off, your horse could get checked out of the race, or break its leg during the running?
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Old 02-06-2018, 04:56 PM   #205
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Why would you want to make a bet knowing the jock could fall off, your horse could get checked out of the race, or break its leg during the running?
Because “accidents” don’t get rewarded monetarily for happening. They aren’t part of the pool I’m playing against
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Old 02-06-2018, 05:38 PM   #206
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I do very little posting and a whole lot of reading here since I became a member sometime ago. The postings on this forum and my private conversations with a couple of fellow members has improved my game quite a bit over the years. But I have to agree with Pace. There is no secret tote, will pays or anything else that these groups have access to that the rest of us do not. What they do have, as Ian pointed out, a whole bunch of people who could do very well running hedge funds in NYC, but find they enjoy this business more.
I have batched my bets for multiple tracks over the past few years. For an example, today at about 6am, I bet the 5th @ TUP. I bet a win bet on the 3 at min. odds of 3/1. I also stipulated that the bet was to be placed at 0 min. to post. Looks like my bet went through, but as the gates opened ( I am not sure when he dropped but he dropped to 2/1). There in lies the problem is the lag of the track and all other " off track money" coming into the system. It is not in real time. This would require an upgrade in technology that these tracks and ADW's are not going to make at this time. Not sure how to fix the problem other than updating things to the 21st century.
The way I have found to get around some of this when I batch my bets early like I did today, is to raise the odds that I am willing to take. So if I am willing to take 2/1 on a horse then I might set my batch bet with 0 min to post at 3/1 or even 7/2 depending on the track. Tracks such as TAM and GPX that run no where close to Marine Corp time, I might even raise it to 4/1. Now if I am betting live in front of my computer, I adjust accordingly. I may even batch all my days wagers early and send or cancel as I watch. I often do the same thing from the track if I am there for live racing. I have the ability to batch all my bets from my seat and send them as I choose when I choose.

You must also remember that there is so much information out there that all of us have available to us that we did not even 10 years ago or if we did have it, it took hours to compile it. It is much easier for all of us to see a winner now. Especially with a 6 horse fields or even 5 horse fields. Another reason why overlays are not like they use to be and another reason why I have changed to mostly turf racing ( thanks Cincy).

I would lay you odds of 1/9 that my meager wager of 10 or 20 to win ( my usual bet) or maybe I feel like a high roller and actually bet 50 or 100, do not affect the odds of the horse going to the gate, nor do any bets I might cancel before if the odds change. I choose not to play the so called bush tracks where a 100 win bet can change the odds.

I almost venture to say, NOTICE I SAY ALMOST, that even the most sophisticated wagering syndicates do not do that either, as long as you look at them as an individual bettor. This is because of all the combinations and dutch bets they do. They are paying to break even and get a rebate. Think about that. Lets assume we could get a rebate of 10%. I have no idea what they get. But if you and I get 10%. You bet 1k in 1 day and you, as it has been alluded to here, lose 30%, you have a profit of (300) then a rebate of 100. You are still down (200) or you break even and you are now up 100. Most likely it is somewhere in between. These syndicates with all the education, software, forumlas etc. know how to wage maybe as much as 5 to 10 k ( pure guess on my part) on a race so that they break even or just slightly above or below. They have bet 100k on a 10 race card and get back 1k in rebates. +or- . If I could push that much money through, and was smart enough to figure out how to do it I would. What I cannot do is afford to do that then hit a lose. How many of you could afford to lose 10 k on the 2nd today? Very few if any. These guys can do that for multiple races in a row before they hit several in a row.
But once again I think the biggest reason for the odds drop that you see is all the money that comes in from pick the site, amwager, twinspires, betfair, etc in the last 2 mins to post or in the case of GPX and TAM 5 min after post time, and because of the antiquated tech that the track uses to process. Similar to why it takes almost 5 minutes for the payouts to be shown once the race is official at some tracks.

I would be amiss if I did not say thank you to Ian. Your input was most welcome as far as I am concerned


This is something that I have loved being from Louisville my whole life. It is a game that we jokingly say Oaks day is the day we set aside to to let the kids out of school so that we can teach them to gamble, drink and smoke cigars. For me it is something that the entire family enjoys together. Most of the time my wife, my daughters and now daughters boyfriends cannot agree where to go eat or what movie to see, but we can all agree to go to the track or if we stay home, watch the races from TVG and bet on our phones.

These are just my opinions and no facts to back it up. I have never met anyone with the means and the desire to wager such as this. I know many with the means, but no desire. And I know multitudes, myself included that have the desire, but no means to wager like this. Thanks for letting me rant and if I offended anyone, I apologize. that was not my intent. I just wanted to put in my 2 cents. Once again sorry about shouting from a soapbox.

Matt

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Old 02-06-2018, 06:40 PM   #207
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Parson (Matt) - You need to post more. You have a lot to offer on this site.

Interesting commentary. I've never bet like this (batch betting). I'm not sure it would appeal to me but I treat the game simply as a hobby. It seems like a lot of work to monitor wagering at this level. Then again, by looking at my ledger for this year, maybe I should be doing more
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Old 02-06-2018, 07:30 PM   #208
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Parson (Matt) - You need to post more. You have a lot to offer on this site.

Interesting commentary.
Agree. Good post by Parson
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Old 02-06-2018, 08:51 PM   #209
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Andy and Phantom, thank you very much for the encouragement to post more and I will try to do so. Like I wrote earlier today, I believe this is the greatest game of chance that you can gamble on. You do not have to participate every race unless you choose, you can choose if you want to play in LA, FL, CA, KY, PA, NY or wherever they are racing. That is another thing that hurts finding overlays, our ability to pick and choose. I am not that old, but I remember when I could only wager on CDX when I went to the track. If was at the track, I could not bet races in NY. Our corner store butcher took book in the back if you wanted to do that. When I could call a bet in on the telephone, that was tall cotton for me. WHOO HOO.

There are a number of things I do not understand about this game and when I do not understand, I tend to get frustrated. I can understand, but not agree; as long as I understand I am fine. Just a few things that I do not understand: the bonehead take out rates set by track mgt., owners and trainers not running ( I do own pieces of a few and we try to run at least every 4-6 weeks or we go broke), the b.s. race conditions that get carded, super trainers that have 200+ horses in training ( no way they know what is going on with the 30K claimer that is 3 states away), the tolerance that we have for those who repeatedly cheat and the death sentence, given to some for the same offense. I could ramble on and on but we would be getting off topic quite a bit.

I forgot to mention, I did have the horse in question @ SAX. Yeah I was a bit upset he dropped in odds, but he still hit my min. odds requirements and it was better than a torn up ticket. I have had my share drift up as well. For some reason those do not p*** me off like the 4/1 that drops to 6/5. Go figure.
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Old 02-06-2018, 10:44 PM   #210
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Why would you want to make a bet knowing the jock could fall off, your horse could get checked out of the race, or break its leg during the running?
Because that doesn't happen every day, many times every day.
Other than , of course, some nitwit jockey strangling the horse out of the gate. But you can add to that - some riders I will never bet period, and some tracks get very little attention. I wouldn't play a NY turf with your money.
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