Most Frustrating Part of Your Own Game?

[PressThePace]

Interested to know what others say about the most frustrating part/aspect /deficiency of your own game in regard to handicapping(not betting). For me, it's the fact that I still have a propensity to downgrade speed/leader types when I see multiple runners with the running style. I've adjusted accordingly from the wagering aspect, but it still bites me in the ass from time to time.

[dansan]

Not having bigger balls to bet more $$$ on my ponies

[cj]

I'm too anti-favorite when it comes to horizontal bets like P4 and P5s.

[Si2see]

Nothing with the handicapping. Almost always frustrated with the wagering

[tubesockshakur]

When betting tris not putting some win money on my bombs. Been pissed many times over my 35 year run.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by PressThePace

Interested to know what others say about the most frustrating part/aspect /deficiency of your own game in regard to handicapping(not betting). For me, it's the fact that I still have a propensity to downgrade speed/leader types when I see multiple runners with the running style. I've adjusted accordingly from the wagering aspect, but it still bites me in the ass from time to time.

ok...I'll be the first to answer your actual question and reveal a handicapping weakness. In fact, I'll give two.

A) I sometimes over-stress the psychological aspects of placement and trainer intent. It REALLY messes with my head, for instance, when a horse taking what I perceive to be a negative class drop wins.

B) I too often strain to convince myself that a seemingly obvious pace-scenario will not play out. And while I DO think the juiciest opportunities occur when the public misreads an impending race-flow, I tend to imagine such situations when they don't really exist.

[PressThePace]

Originally Posted by mountainman

ok...I'll be the first to answer your actual question and reveal a handicapping weakness. In fact, I'll give two.

A) I sometimes over-stress the psychological aspects of placement and trainer intent. It REALLY messes with my head, for instance, when a horse taking what I perceive to be a negative class drop wins.

B) I too often strain to convince myself that a seemingly obvious pace-scenario will not play out. And while I DO think the juiciest opportunities occur when the public misreads an impending race-flow, I tend to imagine such situations when they don't really exist.

Now we're talking. And, I will say that both of those scenarios have caused me grief more than once. Thanks for sharing!

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by jay68802

One thing about this game that gets to you once in a while. My notes for the mandatory P 5. The second and last leg have the right horses. The fourth leg chaps my ass. Notice the is there to start with, but not on any ticket. And the is not there, but played.

Originally Posted by jay68802

TAMPA BAY DOWNS
RACE 5
P4
$0.50 ///

Originally Posted by jay68802

Did back up the P 4 with another P4.

TAMPA BAY DOWNS
RACE 5
P4
$0.50 ///

Tampa came / / /

The last two days say it all, on the right horses, but did not bet the right way.

Bet the right way, and it is $15,000.00+.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by mountainman

ok...I'll be the first to answer your actual question and reveal a handicapping weakness. In fact, I'll give two.

A) I sometimes over-stress the psychological aspects of placement and trainer intent. It REALLY messes with my head, for instance, when a horse taking what I perceive to be a negative class drop wins.

B) I too often strain to convince myself that a seemingly obvious pace-scenario will not play out. And while I DO think the juiciest opportunities occur when the public misreads an impending race-flow, I tend to imagine such situations when they don't really exist.

Overthinking it definitely comes into play. I've had longshots that my pace programs pointed out that I talked myself out of betting because of red flags and the horses won and paid huge prices. For example, I used to eliminate some longshots because the trainer or jockey was on a cold streak. It turns out, low percentage trainers are ideal for longshot plays.

With longshots, aren't there always going to be red flags? That's why I prefer exotics, now I just throw the horse in my doubles or pick 3's. If the horse runs up the track, I've still got a chance but if it comes in, I've got a big price shot. I've done much better on Daily Doubles this year by throwing more of these longstots in.

[Waquoit]

"Not having bigger balls to bet more $$$ on my ponies."
"I'm too anti-favorite when it comes to horizontal bets like P4 and P5s."

These two together. I've been making bigger tickets lately and one just hit because of a horse I wouldn't have had. Still don't want to make them too big.

[classhandicapper]

Overthinking about the data.

IMO, the more you know, the more likely you are to LOSE some confidence in whatever figures or metrics you are using to evaluate a horse's performances because you understand the complexities and the potential for errors in all these numbers and subjective opinions on trips and biases.

The game is way simpler if you simply accept whatever speed and pace figures you are using as accurate and think you right about every bias and trip. You are probably delusional , but at least you are confident (in some cases arrogant) and that makes the game easier to play. That's a better position to be in than both trying to evaluate all the information you have and questioning whether it's accurate to begin with.

When I hear certain public handicappers express borderline arrogant opinions on horses I both laugh at their naivety and becomes jealous of it.

[Tom]

Hands down the finish line placement!

1/2 inch more either way and I would be a rich man!

[Ocala Mike]

Money management!

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Tampa came / / /

The last two days say it all, on the right horses, but did not bet the right way.

Bet the right way, and it is $15,000.00+.

I wasn't sure if it would qualify as part of my "game" because I don't know if there's a way to fix or change it, but these types of losses are definitely the most frustrating part of THE game, no question.

[how cliche]

real talk. too many races, in fact most of them are indecipherable to me.