I'll Take The Odds - how to solve for what happened today at Keeneland in the 9th

[Sheffwed]

I'm someone who used to own horses in the UK, and have worked in London at times over the past 20 years

To this day when you walk into a betting shop in the UK, or want to place a bet on track with a bookmaker, you have the option of "taking the odds" at the moment you place the bet.

Why can't we have that here? Then the Keeneland 9th race price plunge shenanigans situation wouldn't matter (as much).

Screw "fixed odds," that's never going to work and isn't in place anywhere around the world

But the UK is a major racing jurisdiction that has had this sort of thing in place for a long time, it works (as does real time wagering on Betfair, during races as well)

Also, let's bring back on course only bookmakers (as in people) you can place a wager with including taking the odds at the moment

Why is that legal in the UK and Ireland and elsewhere but not here (legacy reasons I know, but why now, when you can have an integrated system using modern technology), it would increase reasons for people to want to come to the track in person also and they would spend more money while there of course, and would be one more nice throwback to the past experience for those attending.

Can we not simply do what works elsewhere or at least give that some thought?

[lamboguy]

i bet one today there in the stake race that dropped the whole betting cycle at one time with 5 minutes to post he was 30-1. i have no idea when the horse took the hit, but he only paid $20.00

[P.Rosa]

Originally Posted by Sheffwed

Can we not simply do what works elsewhere or at least give that some thought?

Americans are just different than the rest of the world.

Except for Native American and Slaves, America began with people that weren't wanted or couldn't make it somewhere else.
Just look at what's going on at our southern border.

We are an angry lot. Without muscle from mobsters, there is nothing to stop an angry loser from hunting down a bookie to get
his/her money back.

[the little guy]

Any bookmakers ( at least ones that have a brain and pay ) would have had the winner of the Makers Mark 8:1 to 10:1, or the same price he was in willpays and probables to anyone that bothered to look.

Handicapping and playing the horses is complicated. To be honest, one of the reasons winning has gotten harder is the abundance of information readily available that used to take serious work to uncover. Using probables and willpays to have a good idea what a horse's final odds will be is a must today given late money at almost every track. If you aren't doing it, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

We were covering the 5th at Oaklawn earlier today. The 3, Black Storm, was around 6:5 with a few minutes to go, and the 9, Lookin for Loki, was 7:2. Before I said Lookin at Loki was great value, I looked at the double willpays. They were $38.20 and $38.40, so said by post time the 9 would likely be 2:1. It's not rocket science.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by P.Rosa

Except for Native American and Slaves, America began with people that weren't wanted or couldn't make it somewhere else.
.

Hell of a description for the Pilgrims et Al.

They were escaping religious persecution. It was expensive to make the voyages. They weren’t bums from the streets of London etc.

[$w1fT]

I don’t know how we got from late odds drops to pilgrims, slaves, natives and the southern border.

As regular horse players, we don’t have much excuse for being surprised at such odds drops but in a game that isn’t attracting new customers we surely ain’t getting new ones who aren’t familiar with such things. Even if they win they’ll never come back.

[cj]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Any bookmakers ( at least ones that have a brain and pay ) would have had the winner of the Makers Mark 8:1 to 10:1, or the same price he was in willpays and probables to anyone that bothered to look.

Handicapping and playing the horses is complicated. To be honest, one of the reasons winning has gotten harder is the abundance of information readily available that used to take serious work to uncover. Using probables and willpays to have a good idea what a horse's final odds will be is a must today given late money at almost every track. If you aren't doing it, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

We were covering the 5th at Oaklawn earlier today. The 3, Black Storm, was around 6:5 with a few minutes to go, and the 9, Lookin for Loki, was 7:2. Before I said Lookin at Loki was great value, I looked at the double willpays. They were $38.20 and $38.40, so said by post time the 9 would likely be 2:1. It's not rocket science.

The reason winning has gotten harder is because 30% of the pool is coming from people that also have two very serious advantages over the rest of us. They play a very different game. They get a much different price than us. I could live with that if it were the only thing. But the bigger piece, in my opinion, is they also get to bet at the very last second. I also have it on very good authority that a few tracks, including Keeneland, are competing with places like Elite and offering even better deals, further widening the gap between regular players and CRWs.

Racetracks could and definitely should be showing us odds based on probables and will pays. It really is a slap in the face that they don't. I know NYRA has changed things in the straight pools so it wouldn't work there, but it hasn't changed a thing in the exotics and you could argue it makes things even MORE confusing. Most horseplayers aren't playing this game to makes scores in the straight pools, yet that is the one bone being thrown to us.

I love making speed figures and handicapping horse races. I'll probably do it until they toss me in an incinerator. But until things change, my wagering will continue to shrink. I may not be the smartest guy around, but I'm not going to be a fish either.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cj

The reason winning has gotten harder is because 30% of the pool is coming from people that also have two very serious advantages over the rest of us. They play a very different game. They get a much different price than us. I could live with that if it were the only thing. But the bigger piece, in my opinion, is they also get to bet at the very last second. I also have it on very good authority that a few tracks, including Keeneland, are competing with places like Elite and offering even better deals, further widening the gap between regular players and CRWs.

Racetracks could and definitely should be showing us odds based on probables and will pays. It really is a slap in the face that they don't. I know NYRA has changed things in the straight pools so it wouldn't work there, but it hasn't changed a thing in the exotics and you could argue it makes things even MORE confusing. Most horseplayers aren't playing this game to makes scores in the straight pools, yet that is the one bone being thrown to us.

I love making speed figures and handicapping horse races. I'll probably do it until they toss me in an incinerator. But until things change, my wagering will continue to shrink. I may not be the smartest guy around, but I'm not going to be a fish either.

With all due respect, why are you telling me things you know I know?

[Andy Asaro]

IF racing eliminated ALL rebates on WPS and lowered takeout for EVERYONE the late odds drops wouldn't happen as much. I really don't care if initially pools are less cuz the huge rebate guys leave.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by cj

The reason winning has gotten harder is because 30% of the pool is coming from people that also have two very serious advantages over the rest of us. They play a very different game. They get a much different price than us. I could live with that if it were the only thing. But the bigger piece, in my opinion, is they also get to bet at the very last second. I also have it on very good authority that a few tracks, including Keeneland, are competing with places like Elite and offering even better deals, further widening the gap between regular players and CRWs.

Racetracks could and definitely should be showing us odds based on probables and will pays. It really is a slap in the face that they don't. I know NYRA has changed things in the straight pools so it wouldn't work there, but it hasn't changed a thing in the exotics and you could argue it makes things even MORE confusing. Most horseplayers aren't playing this game to makes scores in the straight pools, yet that is the one bone being thrown to us.

I love making speed figures and handicapping horse races. I'll probably do it until they toss me in an incinerator. But until things change, my wagering will continue to shrink. I may not be the smartest guy around, but I'm not going to be a fish either.

Some of the major tracks execs have private meetings with team reps which I think you already know. They love them. This shit has to stop

[iamt]

Originally Posted by Sheffwed

I'm someone who used to own horses in the UK, and have worked in London at times over the past 20 years

To this day when you walk into a betting shop in the UK, or want to place a bet on track with a bookmaker, you have the option of "taking the odds" at the moment you place the bet.

Why can't we have that here? Then the Keeneland 9th race price plunge shenanigans situation wouldn't matter (as much).

Screw "fixed odds," that's never going to work and isn't in place anywhere around the world

But the UK is a major racing jurisdiction that has had this sort of thing in place for a long time, it works (as does real time wagering on Betfair, during races as well)

Also, let's bring back on course only bookmakers (as in people) you can place a wager with including taking the odds at the moment

Why is that legal in the UK and Ireland and elsewhere but not here (legacy reasons I know, but why now, when you can have an integrated system using modern technology), it would increase reasons for people to want to come to the track in person also and they would spend more money while there of course, and would be one more nice throwback to the past experience for those attending.

Can we not simply do what works elsewhere or at least give that some thought?

When you say screw fixed odds, What do you think "fixed odds" are?

What is being offered at Monmouth is exactly the same principle as those offered in UK betting shops and on course bookmakers.... a fixed price that is independent of the parimutuel betting market

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by the little guy

With all due respect, why are you telling me things you know I know?

Do you think he intended to offend you?

How about not being a dick for 24 hours?

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

[SBD400]

I understand why people don’t like this, but rarely do I see people “complaining” when the horse they bet at 10 to 1 with 10 minutes left to post wins and pays $34.00.

When odds go down on one horse, odds go up on the others.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by SBD400

I understand why people don’t like this, but rarely do I see people “complaining” when the horse they bet at 10 to 1 with 10 minutes left to post wins and pays $34.00.

When odds go down on one horse, odds go up on the others.

Missed a huge win on the at Keeneland yesterday in the 5th race. Numbers were as good as any, and went off at 9/1. ML 4/1. That is as easy as it gets for an AE with Detorri on board and Shug as the trainer.