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09-07-2017, 08:28 PM
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#4336
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 137
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KD
Thanks Green 80
I'm trying to look for what works the best and if there are combinations that can increase the win %.
coach t
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09-08-2017, 08:40 AM
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#4337
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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WATCH LIST FRIDAY
They're getting closer--"ELWOOD" finished in 3rd by 6 lengths--close enough he could almost taste victory.
Coincidentally...another from my "Q" Watch List is going today. This one looks pretty good too:
MYSTICAL STONES is entered on September 8, 2017 at FINGER LAKES--MDSW... 6th RACE #7 @12-1 ML
My comment: "Throw-away LAST race, no effort...08-29 -----Maiden may be set-up for a big score @ FLX next"
He's back off that throw-away race in 11 days--a good sign. 3 works in 12 days, pos rider switch, 6 to 5F today.
All from a small barn -- with a with a trainer AND jockey with positive ROI's.
At 12-1 I'll lay some money down
*I forgot Los Alamitos Thoroughbred meet started--I posted the B-5 Consensus along with an EXOTIC BETS! "PICK-ALL" card to hopefully help out. Thats one of my favorite tracks----good luck
Last edited by NorCalGreg; 09-08-2017 at 08:44 AM.
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09-08-2017, 08:52 AM
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#4338
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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I was busy looking at the Belmont card for today....to notice Los Al opened.
Anyhoo...here's what I came up with:
BELMONT
1ST FOREIGN AFFAIR 6-1
2ND FORRES LILY 10-1
6TH MONTE MAN 7-2
7TH ELOWEASEL 10-1
9TH WHITE MISSLE 15-1
I flat-out refuse to post that CHAD/IRAD horse in the 8th
He'll probably win---you can have him. Dont hold your breath waiting for that ML---not gonna happen.
-NCG
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09-08-2017, 11:35 AM
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#4339
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coacht
Thanks Green 80
I'm trying to look for what works the best and if there are combinations that can increase the win %.
coach t
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Ok, let us know. What I find is that the more factors in the combinations, the closer you get to the favorite.
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09-08-2017, 03:55 PM
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#4340
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
Originally Posted by green80
Ok, let us know. What I find is that the more factors in the combinations, the closer you get to the favorite.
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I've been (and still am) looking for definitely obscure factors---AND as few as possible, that win much more than their fair share.
Since every facet of racing has been studied to death--it would have to be proprietary. If combinations of factors with high impact values would lead me to the promised land....hate to say it---but I would be there by now.
It's a lot of fun trying....and I may get there yet---or not.
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09-08-2017, 08:16 PM
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#4341
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
They're getting closer--"ELWOOD" finished in 3rd by 6 lengths--close enough he could almost taste victory.
Coincidentally...another from my "Q" Watch List is going today. This one looks pretty good too:
MYSTICAL STONES is entered on September 8, 2017 at FINGER LAKES--MDSW... 6th RACE #7 @12-1 ML
My comment: "Throw-away LAST race, no effort...08-29 -----Maiden may be set-up for a big score @ FLX next"
He's back off that throw-away race in 11 days--a good sign. 3 works in 12 days, pos rider switch, 6 to 5F today.
All from a small barn -- with a with a trainer AND jockey with positive ROI's.
At 12-1 I'll lay some money down
*I forgot Los Alamitos Thoroughbred meet started--I posted the B-5 Consensus along with an EXOTIC BETS! "PICK-ALL" card to hopefully help out. Thats one of my favorite tracks----good luck
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<span class="emoji-outer emoji-sizer"><span class="emoji-inner" style="background: url(chrome-extension://immhpnclomdloikkpcefncmfgjbkojmh/emoji-data/sheet_emojione_64.png);background-position:62.50000000000001% 58.333333333333336%;background-size:4900%" data-codepoints="1f95e"></span></span>.....Be nice to hit one of these:
MYSTICAL STONES finished 3rd beaten by 6 3/4 lengths, on September 8, 2017, at FINGER LAKES in Race 6.
Off odds: 21.40
.....I sho' could have used a nice $40 payoff
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09-08-2017, 11:53 PM
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#4342
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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BELMONT
1ST FOREIGN AFFAIR 6-1 $6.80
2ND FORRES LILY 10-1
6TH MONTE MAN 7-2
7TH ELOWEASEL 10-1
9TH WHITE MISSLE 15-1 XXX scratched
1 for 4 -$1.20
...Too bad--White Missle was my ace in the hole. After re-looking, why in the world would anyone play MONTE MAN? He topped out badly last ---not to mention his dreadful inconsistency.
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09-09-2017, 09:32 AM
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#4343
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Only 1 for me today @ BELMONT
8TH RACE ROYAL POSSE 15-1
Good luck today,
-NCG
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09-09-2017, 10:46 AM
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#4344
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3
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Hey Nor Cal just 1 at Belmont or one overall across all tracks. Anyone see Woodbine closed yesterday as a trainer was killed in an accident.
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09-09-2017, 11:50 AM
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#4345
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Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: near Philadelphia
Posts: 4,560
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PARX selections for Sat., 9-9
I actually handicap using Greg's Pace-View program. I was never ever a black-box player.
I basically find the main contenders by sorting both Power and Prime. I list the top 4-5 in each race but will include a horse as a contender if it ranks 1-2 in either category but does not rank high in the other.
I model racetracks so after I find my contenders I look at other factors such as E2, Late, BRIS speed figure, EPower, LPower. Then I line score for another look ... especially if I believe there is a bias in the making.
This has worked well for me because I only handicap two tracks: Parx and NYRA. I glance at stakes races elsewhere if I see a chance for a good play.
Here are today's selections for Parx, before scratches. Good luck to all.
1st - 5-3-2-7
2nd - 12-7-1-6
3rd - 1-4-7-8
4th - 8-7-4-1a
5th - 5-10-3-11
6th - 4-3-7-1
7th - 10-9-12-6
8th - 5-12-6-3
9th - 10-6-4-2
10th - 7-9-12-3
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09-09-2017, 12:31 PM
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#4346
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3
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Royal Posse is a scratch today
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09-09-2017, 03:35 PM
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#4347
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fitzy
Royal Posse is a scratch today
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OOOOOkayyy....I'm invoking the "Andy" rule---post whenever the hell you want, as long as it's before the race.
Besides, BELMONT and BELTERRA are right next to each other on the track selection list
--I spent a half hour handicapping Belterra before I realized my mistake
BELMONT ....continued:
5TH GLORY TO KITTEN 4-1
6TH DREAM PASSAGE 12-1
9TH PATENTAR 10-1
10TH GASCONADE 5-1
Last edited by NorCalGreg; 09-09-2017 at 03:44 PM.
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09-09-2017, 03:41 PM
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#4348
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
Originally Posted by reckless
PARX selections for Sat., 9-9
I actually handicap using Greg's Pace-View program. I was never ever a black-box player.
I basically find the main contenders by sorting both Power and Prime. I list the top 4-5 in each race but will include a horse as a contender if it ranks 1-2 in either category but does not rank high in the other.
I model racetracks so after I find my contenders I look at other factors such as E2, Late, BRIS speed figure, EPower, LPower. Then I line score for another look ... especially if I believe there is a bias in the making.
This has worked well for me because I only handicap two tracks: Parx and NYRA. I glance at stakes races elsewhere if I see a chance for a good play.
Here are today's selections for Parx, before scratches. Good luck to all.
1st - 5-3-2-7
2nd - 12-7-1-6
3rd - 1-4-7-8
4th - 8-7-4-1a
5th - 5-10-3-11
6th - 4-3-7-1
7th - 10-9-12-6
8th - 5-12-6-3
9th - 10-6-4-2
10th - 7-9-12-3
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Good, solid use of your handicapping tools, Ralphie. I have another PLATINUM customer that has his own method---strictly
for GPX.
I sort of hinted around that perhaps he would tell me the complete method. He's sent in some diagrams previously, but horseplayers being horseplayers....think he decided I already knew too much.
Trouble is......I don't know anything!
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09-09-2017, 04:46 PM
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#4349
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Have you taken a good look at 7TH Race GIVEN FIRE 20-1 ml.
The horse just can't stay healthy enough to run more than a couple races without an extended layoff.
Now today----2nd off yet another long layoff, he's back in 13 days.
He shows 4 moves in 16 days--21F counting the mile he ran....where he blew out a half mile then eased up. Now back to sprinting---the main question is his inexperienced trainer Abreu.
A class drop would have sweetened the deal---but it probably won't help a horse that isn't sound....or a rookie trainer.
He also switches riders from Santana to Cancel. If he can stay in one piece, the current line of 22-1 looks like a bargain.
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09-10-2017, 09:46 AM
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#4350
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Alright...today's a new day
BELMONT
4TH LUCULLAN 4-1
6TH STAN THE MAN 8-1
10TH RAGAZZA DI PAPA 12-1
Good luck today gents
--NCG
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