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Old 03-05-2014, 07:10 PM   #46
mrroyboy
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Those are the best books on Pace for t-breds. Using them for harness racing needs adjustment
What I was talking about is from Extreme Pace handicapping. He took the best early rating and the best late rating from the horse's last 3 races. But then he did something unique. He didn't add them or average them etc he ranked them. Horses that were 1st in early pace and 3rd or 4th late are potential wire to wire winners. Horses with numbers like 7-1 7-2 etc were deep closers so if there was a lot of cheap early speed horses in the race he could mow them down in the stretch
I did very well using this for t-breds especially EP types in races with little pace pressure. There were very few that qualified. Anyway how would we apply that to Harness?
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Old 03-05-2014, 10:03 PM   #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrroyboy
Those are the best books on Pace for t-breds. Using them for harness racing needs adjustment
What I was talking about is from Extreme Pace handicapping. He took the best early rating and the best late rating from the horse's last 3 races. But then he did something unique. He didn't add them or average them etc he ranked them. Horses that were 1st in early pace and 3rd or 4th late are potential wire to wire winners. Horses with numbers like 7-1 7-2 etc were deep closers so if there was a lot of cheap early speed horses in the race he could mow them down in the stretch
I did very well using this for t-breds especially EP types in races with little pace pressure. There were very few that qualified. Anyway how would we apply that to Harness?
Roy, why did you switch breeds ?....

As for your question about transitioning the t-bred pace stuff to harness, well that is a very broad question to address with just a line or two....I wouldn't even attempt to at this time Roy..

Imo, pace is pace, no matter the breed....As far as harness racing is concerned, only the sulky distorts the pace picture somewhat, but only "somewhat" imo...

I have always had a keen interest in the pace of any race, so what I am trying to do now is something like trying to marry Giles stuff with the PIPs, and possibly come up with a quick and ez formula that might enhance the PIPs....We will see....

I spend an inordinate amount of time thinking about this....Buy hey, I am never bored, "ever"....At 69 & 1/4 that is just fine by me..
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Old 03-05-2014, 10:50 PM   #48
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LOST A BEANIE TONITE....

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Old 03-07-2014, 02:29 AM   #49
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HORROR SHOW TONITE !!!

Also, note too, I was watching the Ex pays at DD for the 1st race, as it was
a race that I had 2 that l liked very much, and I just couldn't split em....Usually in a situation such as this one, I will often just box the two.....I have much successwith my picks doing it this way, when the payouts were well worth it...

Only thing tho....I bungled the whole bet, as I waited too long to get the wager
in and it was rejected, as I hadn't made the play correctly in all of my haste...

You guessed it....It won paid $44.00....It was sign of things to come tonite..haha..

Sloppy, sloppy, sloppy....lack of focus here....crap..haha...Start of STEAM!



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Old 03-07-2014, 02:03 PM   #50
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Hey John
You are right about pace being too complicated for one post. My main question is how do you determine the race shapes (fast fast, slow average) etc? Do you average the 4 quarters or do you use some kind of par time chart with pace figures for each class?
Like I said Randy Giles stuff is good but applying it to Harness Racing is tough.
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Old 03-07-2014, 02:31 PM   #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrroyboy
Hey John
You are right about pace being too complicated for one post. My main question is how do you determine the race shapes (fast fast, slow average) etc? Do you average the 4 quarters or do you use some kind of par time chart with pace figures for each class?
Like I said Randy Giles stuff is good but applying it to Harness Racing is tough.
Roy, I will PM you with some ideas of mine....
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Old 03-07-2014, 06:50 PM   #52
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Thank you John as always.
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Old 03-08-2014, 04:40 AM   #53
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When I first started this test drive, I was in a very awkward postition, right from the get go....



Thru the years, I had formulated a wagering plan that has allowed me to extract wagering profits on a steady and on going basis.....This plan is simply to maintain my bankroll with enough of money, regardless of the amount, to allow me a minimum of "25 bets"......The amount of the wagers is commensurate with the status of the current bankroll....That is simply it....Always the 25-bets minimum... (altho I really like it around 30-bets for comforts sake)....Sometimes I would have to draw it down so low that the BR would go down to $250, which equates to $10 bets...But $55 now, wow, this is some challenge to me...Still, no matter the amount bet, when I have the leeway of the 25-bets, I should do just as well as always, as it is all relative anyhow..



Now, when I first started this thread with the $53 bucks, I had the audacity to make $4 wagers, which really equates to only "10-bets" @$5 each.....Risky business



Since this adventures inception, I have left a whole lot of kash on the table, and this 10 bet limitation has, in psychological reality, left me very anxious, about this particular test drive....Or, to put it another way, not having enough of leeway in the amount of plays as I am normally used to on a steady basis, I have had to make some distressing decisions in regards to what plays I would make each nite....As in, what are the best and safest bets.....Or to put it another way, normally I maintain a BR of between $500 and $1,000...and this allows me to make anywhere from $20 to $40 wagers, and with a leeway of 25 bets, I never have a problem making as many as 10 or more plays a day....But, with a bankroll of only $53 and only a 10-12 max of plays in total, well, that is where all the pressure is coming from....I could go bust in one nite...Wheras, it would take me 2-1/2 days of nothing-winning, to do the same thing with a healthier bankroll...



If I make 10 plays, and they all lose (which in reality they could, and has occured from time to time), I would be out.....Now, my economic situation isn't such or so bad, that it isn't out of the question for me to to find a way to make and replenish my bankroll, but that would mean that I would have to do without some other amenities that I have grown accustomed to....So, not having this 25 -Bet leeway had severely curtailed my stlys as it currently was, and forced me to leave a lot of "gettable-kash" on the table as a result, which was due to me having to, with great anxiety, decide which bets to leave in and which to leave out.....And, most times you can't tell ahead of time which bets will win and which ones will lose....These past few weeks, I have missed a lot of really solid plays, paying really good odds, in lieu of making the plays of which I thought were more safe and secure to the BR....



The bottom line is, after the fiasco the other nite, which the BR couldn't in reality suport, I have decided to change the amount of the wager down to a more doable $2 Win bets, and $1 2way Exacta plays, and $1 Pick bets....The bankroll can now better support this amount and will allow a healthier 22-some odd bet leeway, will allow me now to get possibley some of that lost money I had been missing out on....Or to put it another way, if I had the luxury of making "all or most" of the other plays that I picked and didn't play since I started the thread, I believe that this BR would be much, much healthier by now..



These past few years, I have not been allergic to making riskier plays, as my handicapping is good enough that my more reliable wagers make up for the "Gamble" part of my handicapping....Hey, that is how you get to cruise ! .....



As it stands now I ain't cruisin nowhere.....



Still, this is an experimental work....And, I would feel much more comfortable with a headroom of a minimum of 30-bets...That is the immediate goal, and once up to $100-BR, I will up it back up to $4...



Every so many years, I always take stock and try to add some new things into my way of going, and that is simply what is going on here with this little adventure....But when you are changing and revamping your methodology, especially when it has worked so well for so long, it certainly keeps you on your toes and in a steady state of flux ....I love it all tho...I can't tell anyone how many times that I thought that I had learned all there is to know about winning and losing...haha...



So far I am making good strides towards creating a simple formula to make this "spot play method" go even better.....By paying special attention to only 1-factor in particular, and then adding into my mix of an already decent handicapping analysis, in actuality, in has really simplified my first screening process, all the more, and as a result it has allowed me to save a bunch of time and has allowed me to better tackle the other track or two that I normally wouldn't have the time to do....Being a P&P capper, n'all....



Still, 1-factor aside ( the SMBX), nothing replaces good handicapping, as there are numerous bogus illusions & perceptions to contend with when trying to use a 1-factor methodology as a guide....All I can do is add that 1-factor into my mix and hopefully it will only serve to bolster all the more, all the good things that I know and believe to be true and profit generating...



Stay tuned, if you like, it will only get better....sure...!
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Old 03-08-2014, 04:44 AM   #54
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Could've been better could've been worse...

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Old 03-09-2014, 03:04 AM   #55
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Slim pickins tonite...Mostly a look and learn sort of a nite....Some interesting scenarios that I was interested in seeing the outcomes of.....It sure is a balancing act at times, what with all the newly "melded" info and all...

I am gradually learning to separate the strong plays and the ones that are a gamble but certainly worth looking for that pay big....I am guilty of not playing them again, and tonite was no different....haha...But, I am learning much in that regard, and I am in the process of "growing bigger cajones" in this regard...

Learning where to draw the lines, and when to back off, and when to resort to conventional handicapping as was always, are the main things that I am working on.....So far tho, this "spot method" is showing more and more promise as I learn more of the do's and don'ts, of and in some situations.....It is quite fascinating to be able to see things in a very "new-light" that it is shining on my handicapping in ways and in areas that I had taken for granted for so very long....It has created a fresh and new interest in my game....We all need that from time to time.....It will get better I am sure....

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Old 03-10-2014, 03:00 AM   #56
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EZ day today....Lots of late nite thinking tho...My mind is so busy these days...

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Old 03-11-2014, 12:48 AM   #57
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Brain fog day....

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Old 03-11-2014, 04:25 PM   #58
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As always John, I am here to help.
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Old 03-12-2014, 12:18 AM   #59
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Things are looking good for the future of this endeavour....So far, haha..


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Old 03-12-2014, 01:27 AM   #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LottaKash
Things are looking good for the future of this endeavour....So far, haha..


Thats what I like about you John. You never claim to know 'everything'.

69 and still learning.

The process of learning should never end. I have always believed and said that.

Love reading your meal tickets plays and comments. Keep it up.
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