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02-19-2019, 11:38 AM
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#856
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,646
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
SFOR to zero
Your best stock in the world nonsense just went to zero
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02-19-2019, 11:55 AM
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#857
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
SFOR to zero
Your best stock in the world nonsense just went to zero
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Redboarding.
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02-21-2019, 05:41 AM
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#858
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: central fla.
Posts: 4,874
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Well the well connected players who can trade before the average Joe....should get a real nice hit today on NIKE stock if they short it...predicting a a bit of dive...after that shoe blow-out last night....sell sell sell
__________________
got handed a lemon...make lemonade....add sugar or brown sugar or stevia or my personal favorite....miracle fruit....google it...thank me later...
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02-21-2019, 10:46 AM
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#859
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sammy the sage
Well the well connected players who can trade before the average Joe....should get a real nice hit today on NIKE stock if they short it...predicting a a bit of dive...after that shoe blow-out last night....sell sell sell
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Your broker doesn't allow pre-market trading? If only well connected players can SELL (short) Nike before the open, then presumably only well connected players can BUY Nike before the open? So the well connected seller is trying to sell (short) to a well connected buyer. Edge - zero (and it isn't reality).
In reality, the well informed small investor has a big edge over the large investor b/c liquidity isn't an issue (i.e., it's easier to sell 200 shares of NKE pre-open than 200k shares).
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02-21-2019, 01:24 PM
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#860
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike
Your broker doesn't allow pre-market trading? If only well connected players can SELL (short) Nike before the open, then presumably only well connected players can BUY Nike before the open? So the well connected seller is trying to sell (short) to a well connected buyer. Edge - zero (and it isn't reality).
In reality, the well informed small investor has a big edge over the large investor b/c liquidity isn't an issue (i.e., it's easier to sell 200 shares of NKE pre-open than 200k shares).
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Spot-on post, 'Toga Mike...…+Points...
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02-25-2019, 12:09 PM
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#861
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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S&P is at 2808. I had predicted 2811 by June 16. If it hits 2811 today or even this week, that is months ahead of my prediction. Usually, I get the number right, but get the timing wrong. My timing is still off, but at least it is closer to hitting the target sooner than later.
My upside target is 2931. It would be nice if it hits that target sooner than later!
Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
A month ago I posted that my average target for the S&P is 2811 by June 16, 2019 -- a 15% increase from the close of about 2468 on December 26, 2018. The maximum upside target is 2931.
S&P currently stands at about 2770. There is still some upside remaining, but the big run up might be over. However, if this bull market lasts longer than 6 months and runs through September then there is still another 150 points to the upside to be captured.
I don't have a good probability estimate to the downside, but the old 80/20 rule might apply. There is an 80% chance SP moves higher by June and only a 20% it is lower, black swans notwithstanding.
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Last edited by highnote; 02-25-2019 at 12:17 PM.
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03-02-2019, 07:55 AM
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#862
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Last September the SP was over 2900. So it wouldn't be a stretch to see 2900 this year -- especially given the strong upward pointing momentum signals in December and January.
SP closed at 2803 on Friday. Hitting the 2811 target seems probable.
Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
S&P is at 2808. I had predicted 2811 by June 16. If it hits 2811 today or even this week, that is months ahead of my prediction. Usually, I get the number right, but get the timing wrong. My timing is still off, but at least it is closer to hitting the target sooner than later.
My upside target is 2931. It would be nice if it hits that target sooner than later!
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03-04-2019, 10:27 AM
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#863
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Below is an edited version of what I posted back on January 16.
My prediction was S&P 2811 by June 15, 2019. It is at 2811 today. Who knows what the next three months hold, but I'm staying long until I get a sell signal.
Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
I have been maintaining a stock market timing model for the past 5 or 10 years that was devised by Martin Zweig. Last week I got the biggest buy signal that the model gives. It also gave a couple smaller buy signals a week or so earlier.
Check back here in 6 months. I estimate that the SP will rise by at least 15% by June 15, 2019.
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So I'm looking at a target for the SP of at least 2811 -- up 15% from December 26's close, but more likely 2931 based on the close of January 7, 2019.
The following indicator is why I am so bullish:
On January 7, the NYSE Advancing Stocks to Declining Stocks ratio over a 10 day period was greater than 2-1. That is a huge buy signal based on momentum. It has only happened twice since 1993. It happened in March of 2009 at the bottom of the financial crisis when interest rates dropped and the Fed started QE. It happened in July 2016 when everyone thought Hillary was a lock to win the presidency -- investors saw stability in that not much would change from the Obama presidency.
There was also another strong indicator on December 26, 2018 when the NYSE Advancing volume to declining volume ratio was greater than 9-1 -- it hit 24-1. It takes a lot of buying to get to that ratio. Money is flooding into the market.
...the market should do well over the next 6 months.
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03-04-2019, 01:16 PM
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#864
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Well, the day started off on the right track. Just when you think you've got it figured out ...
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03-15-2019, 10:49 AM
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#865
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Have not gotten any sell signals from my model. Finally broke through the 2811 low-side target I set for the S&P. Hope to see the high-side target of 2900+ by June.
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03-15-2019, 10:13 PM
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#866
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Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: near Philadelphia
Posts: 4,560
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Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
Have not gotten any sell signals from my model. Finally broke through the 2811 low-side target I set for the S&P. Hope to see the high-side target of 2900+ by June.
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It will get there and through 2,900 a lot sooner than June, highnote, I believe.
Powerful news on the business front today and the market reacted accordingly. I actually think today was a buy signal for a very strong near- and long-term up market.
I am not a charts guy but markets and the economy are cooking and with the rest of the world going nowhere, the USA will be the only place for money to go to.
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03-16-2019, 01:12 AM
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#867
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by reckless
It will get there and through 2,900 a lot sooner than June, highnote, I believe.
Powerful news on the business front today and the market reacted accordingly. I actually think today was a buy signal for a very strong near- and long-term up market.
I am not a charts guy but markets and the economy are cooking and with the rest of the world going nowhere, the USA will be the only place for money to go to.
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Agreed. Economy seems much improved. Restaurants were filled in NYC this week and they're fairly pricey since the last time I spent much time there. Lots of people out and about. People have money and are spending it.
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03-16-2019, 01:46 PM
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#868
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Mukwonago, WI
Posts: 3,208
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Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
People have money and are spending it.
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This. Seen it myself. The malls are also crowded. Not just at Christmas either.
__________________
"I don't always frequent message boards, but when I do, I prefer PaceAdvantage."
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03-18-2019, 03:14 PM
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#869
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 2,472
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wisconsin
This. Seen it myself. The malls are also crowded. Not just at Christmas either.
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I'm not disagreeing at all the economy is better. But the malls? Around here they are empty. They weren't even that crowded at Christmas. Amazon. Plain and simple.
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03-23-2019, 08:50 PM
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#870
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: central fla.
Posts: 4,874
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So this is a stock market prediction thread....and I'll go out on limb and make prediction for monday...3/25....the market over-all tanks....100 points or more....
why....there's no news or nothing in the wind?....well there is one SMALL interesting fact....the extreme short term % rates are ACTUALLY lower than say a 3 year rate...on bonds....which is RARE....
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-ce...spx?data=yield
should be interesting anyways....
Be careful out there....and remember...I'm just an internet nobody...just like horse racing tips...
__________________
got handed a lemon...make lemonade....add sugar or brown sugar or stevia or my personal favorite....miracle fruit....google it...thank me later...
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