View Poll Results: Do you use energy percentages?
|
Yes, it is very important
|
|
2,072 |
94.70% |
Yes, it is somewhat important
|
|
21 |
0.96% |
Yes, but I really just look at it.
|
|
18 |
0.82% |
No, it never worked for me.
|
|
38 |
1.74% |
I do not select pacelines.
|
|
39 |
1.78% |
|
|
08-09-2022, 03:38 PM
|
#31
|
Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 5,153
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by 46zilzal
tells of FORM CYCLE or when a horse stretches out (particularly during the road to the Triple Crown you can tell which colts have it in them to stretch out to longer distances. THOSE who cannot, their % median rises as the distances increase)
|
I understand what %Median tells. I didn't understand the initial question, which I interpreted to mean using %M to select a pace line. That's what I didn't get.
__________________
Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst, Quick Grid Software
|
|
|
08-09-2022, 08:47 PM
|
#32
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: White Plains, NY
Posts: 5,315
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ranchwest
I suspect this is an extremely good response, but it is really a bit deep to just completely grasp immediately as far as actual implementation. But I am going to go over it and give it some thought. Thanks!
|
I havent done it for a while since I stopped subscribing to the software that enabled me to do it, but let me try and find something that will illustrate it.
__________________
andicap
|
|
|
08-09-2022, 10:51 PM
|
#33
|
velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,297
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ranchwest
I understand what %Median tells. I didn't understand the initial question, which I interpreted to mean using %M to select a pace line. That's what I didn't get.
|
That will lead to sample error
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
|
|
|
08-10-2022, 01:21 AM
|
#34
|
Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 5,153
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by andicap
I havent done it for a while since I stopped subscribing to the software that enabled me to do it, but let me try and find something that will illustrate it.
|
Thanks, that would interest me.
__________________
Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst, Quick Grid Software
|
|
|
08-10-2022, 03:13 PM
|
#35
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
|
I always felt like "energy distribution" combined with "track profiles" should be the Holy Grail, but I never came across an energy distribution formula I felt worked as well pace figures where a number is assigned to each pace call or where you just look at running styles and watch races.
There's probably a magic bullet buried in energy distribution somewhere, but the reality is very difficult to capture in a formula. It probably already exists for humans. I have to think the most elite minds in physics and biology focused on track and field have created formulas for maximizing final time at various distances under different conditions for human runners and understand how variations impact things (at least better than we do for horses).
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 08-10-2022 at 03:16 PM.
|
|
|
08-10-2022, 09:49 PM
|
#36
|
Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 5,153
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I always felt like "energy distribution" combined with "track profiles" should be the Holy Grail, but I never came across an energy distribution formula I felt worked as well pace figures where a number is assigned to each pace call or where you just look at running styles and watch races.
There's probably a magic bullet buried in energy distribution somewhere, but the reality is very difficult to capture in a formula. It probably already exists for humans. I have to think the most elite minds in physics and biology focused on track and field have created formulas for maximizing final time at various distances under different conditions for human runners and understand how variations impact things (at least better than we do for horses).
|
I believe energy distribution and track profiles are much better for eliminations than selections.
__________________
Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst, Quick Grid Software
|
|
|
08-10-2022, 10:06 PM
|
#37
|
velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,297
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ranchwest
I believe energy distribution and track profiles are much better for eliminations than selections.
|
Agree 100%
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
|
|
|
08-10-2022, 10:09 PM
|
#38
|
Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 5,153
|
Most horses in most races would fall within the profile range for energy distribution. Narrow the range and it doesn't work.
__________________
Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst, Quick Grid Software
|
|
|
08-12-2022, 09:13 AM
|
#39
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ranchwest
I believe energy distribution and track profiles are much better for eliminations than selections.
|
I understand what you are saying. You are trying to find horses that match the demands of the track and conditions of the race. But there must also be a way to use the internals to evaluate performances better. The formulas I've seen seem to miss the mark. Not that I have one that I've tested that will work better. I just always felt something that could be created.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
|
|
|
08-12-2022, 09:36 AM
|
#40
|
Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 5,153
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I understand what you are saying. You are trying to find horses that match the demands of the track and conditions of the race. But there must also be a way to use the internals to evaluate performances better. The formulas I've seen seem to miss the mark. Not that I have one that I've tested that will work better. I just always felt something that could be created.
|
The Sartin Methodology has 7 basic factors that can be used to rank horses. The composite of those rankings is a generally good measure and many winners come from the top 5.
But I find that the best evaluation is the pace setup and determining whether the winner will run from the front end or the rear and which ability will prevail in the late stages of the race. It's not something that can be ascertained by looking at the individual numbers of a single horse or even by simple mechanical comparisons of a few numbers. It is the interaction among the horses that has to be evaluated.
__________________
Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst, Quick Grid Software
|
|
|
08-12-2022, 10:03 AM
|
#41
|
Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 5,153
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ranchwest
The Sartin Methodology has 7 basic factors that can be used to rank horses. The composite of those rankings is a generally good measure and many winners come from the top 5.
But I find that the best evaluation is the pace setup and determining whether the winner will run from the front end or the rear and which ability will prevail in the late stages of the race. It's not something that can be ascertained by looking at the individual numbers of a single horse or even by simple mechanical comparisons of a few numbers. It is the interaction among the horses that has to be evaluated.
|
And, of course, the pace line selected makes a lot of difference.
__________________
Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst, Quick Grid Software
|
|
|
08-12-2022, 11:31 AM
|
#42
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ranchwest
And, of course, the pace line selected makes a lot of difference.
|
IMO, you have to be careful with pace line selection.
If you explain why almost any horse won, you can find a reason using pace line selection. But you don't want to build biases into your thinking that are not backed by data.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
|
|
|
08-12-2022, 11:57 AM
|
#43
|
The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
|
Isn't picking one paceline kind of like missing the wedding and showing up for the funeral?
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
|
|
|
08-12-2022, 01:23 PM
|
#44
|
Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 5,153
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
Isn't picking one paceline kind of like missing the wedding and showing up for the funeral?
|
Isn't picking two pacelines like kissing your sister?
__________________
Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst, Quick Grid Software
|
|
|
08-12-2022, 01:26 PM
|
#45
|
Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 5,153
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
IMO, you have to be careful with pace line selection.
If you explain why almost any horse won, you can find a reason using pace line selection. But you don't want to build biases into your thinking that are not backed by data.
|
Of course. There always has to be validity.
__________________
Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst, Quick Grid Software
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|