Are the Triple Crown horses broken

[cj]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

To me the answer seems rather simple for a novice to this subject, if the 10k claimer, which the charts are based on, runs slower than he did 20 years ago then the scale is now changed.

I think the top horses are still just as fast, are very slightly slower as a group, but the 10k horse is not the same hard hitting 10k claimer that the figures were formed from. I see that at SA all the time, with the conditions and such, those horse would never compete 20-40 years ago.

I would argue at most places, with slots fueldd purses, the 10k horse today may very well be better than it used to be. The purse / claiming price ratio is seriously skewed at a large number of tracks. It used to be 5k claimers ran for 5k or less. Now they are running for 20k some places.

If you are using pars, and the 10k horses are better as a whole but you keep the rating the same, the better horses are going to drop overall figure wise.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by cj

I would argue at most places, with slots fueldd purses, the 10k horse today may very well be better than it used to be. The purse / claiming price ratio is seriously skewed at a large number of tracks. It used to be 5k claimers ran for 5k or less. Now they are running for 20k some places.

If you are using pars, and the 10k horses are better as a whole but you keep the rating the same, the better horses are going to drop overall figure wise.

Interesting. I wondering if this can be studied, from the smaller tracks to the mid tier tracks to the bigger tracks.

Just watching socal the 10k claimer is weaker on figures than it was 30 years ago, maybe I have some old forms buried somewhere I can look.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Interesting. I wondering if this can be studied, from the smaller tracks to the mid tier tracks to the bigger tracks.

Just watching socal the 10k claimer is weaker on figures than it was 30 years ago, maybe I have some old forms buried somewhere I can look.

There's a Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle at work here. There's no way to hold the variables constant when we don't know if the variables (including the quality of horses and the average track speeds and the drugs) are constant.

I mean, I can get really deep into the weeds as to why it is impossible to make a speed figure that is guaranteed to result in accurate historical comparisons. But trust me, it is basically impossible. Best thing you can do is make some reasonable assumptions.

[A. Pineda]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

To me the answer seems rather simple for a novice to this subject, if the 10k claimer, which the charts are based on, runs slower than he did 20 years ago then the scale is now changed.

I think the top horses are still just as fast, are very slightly slower as a group, but the 10k horse is not the same hard hitting 10k claimer that the figures were formed from. I see that at SA all the time, with the conditions and such, those horse would never compete 20-40 years ago.

When you adjust for inflation, that 10k claiming horse in 1978 would be worth about 38k today. Even though purses have been increased the bottom levels are still 5k-10k. Lower-quality runners would perform accordingly.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by A. Pineda

When you adjust for inflation, that 10k claiming horse in 1978 would be worth about 38k today.

and a 10K today would be about 2700 in '78

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

and a 10K today would be about 2700 in '78

Bear in mind though, the inflation rate for horses could be different than the inflation rate for consumer goods. There could even be disinflation or deflation.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Bear in mind though, the inflation rate for horses could be different than the inflation rate for consumer goods. There could even be disinflation or deflation.

That's a good point.

Things like relative scarcity, and relative earning potential(see CJ's note of purse fluctuations / slot fueled purses) of a '10K' claimer could certainly change relative to the dollar. Dollar seems 'relatively' reliable as a measuring stick. Worth going deeper into your idea if you want a brain exercise.

The claiming game is tough. If you have money to burn, you can run a horse once a month or more. If you think you are going to turn a profit, you need an edge similar to what you would need with betting. There are also guys who have a profitable business model, with partnerships covering your edge + the costs, in exchange for entertainment/experience.