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Old 11-12-2009, 11:39 AM   #1
misscashalot
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When is too much too much

Is there too much handicapping information available for our own good?

How do you pick and chose the info that's available, free and for a price, in order to make capping decisions?

How does knowing too much interfere with our handicapping?
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Old 11-12-2009, 11:58 AM   #2
Pell Mell
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Information overload is not good. I don't agree much with 46 but on this I do. There are not all that many factors that are pertinent to handicapping

I love the Bris condensed version because all the info I need is there and I'm not distracted by a bunch of meaningless stats. And, all the horses are usually on one page so I don't have to keep flipping pages and can get a good overview at a glance.

Something along the line of not being able to see the forest because the trees are in the way.
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Old 11-12-2009, 11:59 AM   #3
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Too much information can turn your decision making into one big headache. If your new at this game. I advise to keep it simple. Past Performances are free at Brisnet if you make a bet on that track at twinspires. So pick your tracks the day before and do your handicapping the day before. Make sure you make at least one bet for each of the tracks you downloaded and the pps will be free. The ultimate pps might be too much for the newbie. If so then start with the quick play pps.

Quote:
Originally Posted by misscashalot
Is there too much handicapping information available for our own good?

How do you pick and chose the info that's available, free and for a price, in order to make capping decisions?

How does knowing too much interfere with our handicapping?
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Old 11-12-2009, 12:09 PM   #4
ranchwest
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The good thing about a lot of data is that you have a choice of how to use it or even whether to use it.

Data needs to be refined or formatted or extracted or summarized or consolidated or whatever because very few people can deal with going through a lot of data. It becomes overload.
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Old 11-12-2009, 12:19 PM   #5
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I divide factors or performance measures into major groups (such as class, speed, pace, and form), and look for the factor/measure in each group that has the largest spread and the smoothest progression of values in ranking a field from top to bottom with respect to winning probability, separated out by distance and running surface . The grouping and the comparison helps me to distinguish the "significant few" from the "trivial many", and to avoid redundancy. The use of distance and running surface helps me to spot factors that may be more effective at shorter distances than at longer distances (or vice versa), or that are specific to dirt, turf, or poly.

Last edited by Overlay; 11-12-2009 at 12:26 PM.
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Old 11-12-2009, 12:25 PM   #6
46zilzal
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Paralysis by analysis has been a problem for a very long time.

Read BLINK and you will find out why
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Old 11-12-2009, 12:32 PM   #7
Fingal
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One of the best thing BRIS provides for FREE is the custom PP Generator. Being able to cut down the number of running lines & workouts to the most recent few eliminates much of the information overload. Creating reports that sort by filters, being to eliminate non contenders from the printout-
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Old 11-12-2009, 12:37 PM   #8
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Some information is "meat and potatoes" and some information is "desert"!


You should have a process for handicapping and it's a time consuming pain in the ass to do it right.
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Old 11-12-2009, 12:44 PM   #9
Cadillakin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by misscashalot
Is there too much handicapping information available for our own good?

How do you pick and chose the info that's available, free and for a price, in order to make capping decisions?

How does knowing too much interfere with our handicapping?
I use;
1. Formulator Enhanced PP's (Moss Speed figs included) that easily link me to the recent result charts, recent workouts, and broodmare records. Formulator Enhanced allows you to see every race of the horse, so the total picture of the athletes career is available.
2. Selvin's TurfDay Super Stats (at Youbet - minimal charge or free - depending on amount bet. At most, $9.95 a month) Super Stats provides a complete history of the horse, with every workout and race since the first time he stepped on the racetrack.. showing all breaks and patterns, as well as all charts from the runners first races, stallion win percentages, first time starter data, and other useful breeding and racing information. The workout history of the youngsters is invaluable. If you see long, long patterns on the well bred horses, the horses aren't coming to hand, but brief patterns with a single or a couple of sneaky-quick works reveal live horses. Also, it gives one the ability to better predict the horses who will stretch out.. those who have been trained to do so and have the necessary bottom - as indicated by the totality of their recent work history.
3. The American Produce Records CD - (buy at Ebay a year old edition for about $75 - $100) for more specific information on the broodmare offspring - average winning distance, turf form, best Beyer fig, all stakes placings, and the runners SSI, which gives a numerical class rating, based on earnings per start and correlated to the years he/she raced.. etc..
4. Racing Replays provided by Youbet (free or some charges apply)
5. Racing Replays provided by Calracing.com (free)
6. Pedigree.com for a quick look at 5 generation pedigrees. (free)

That's it. I don't look at analysis, figs, or other handicappers opinions. I make my own decisions with those tools. Pro-rated, with the PP's purchased in bulk, it's about $2.50 per race card.
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Old 11-12-2009, 01:48 PM   #10
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I use:
1)..The Multicap data files at brisnet and sometimes print out the pps my way using the custom pp generator.
2)..Multicaps software helps me compare figures from each horse easily.
3)..Insider picks and power plays..I look for key races and clocker workouts on these reports.
4)..I also look over the brisnet pps. AWD and spi figure sheds some light on maiden races..Summary sheet gives me and idea on what is winning..
5)..Sire, trainer and broodmare sire reports at breedingwinners.com. Along with the top sire lists..
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Old 11-12-2009, 02:18 PM   #11
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Good topic Misscash.

I agree with the blink thing, because most here follow races religiously and have a built-in knowledge when a good bet pops up, and generally with that good bet it is usually decided with one criteria.

For example I follow some trainers - in the end, in a blanket way it is ROI negative - but there are situations that jump out at you and they tend to be high ROI plays. For example, there is one dude I follow who wins at about 25% or so off claim, but without fail when he takes cash the horse is great, when he does not the horse sucks. It's an easy play - see off the claim, check the board and bet or do not bet. I dont care who is against the horse, what the horse looks like, if he is stretching out or shortening up, the state of the racetrack, or whatever. No use digging when such a simple play you have made money on pops up.

I think players have their simple plays several times a day and I would submit they are super revenue drivers for them and they can win on them without thinking.

Last edited by DeanT; 11-12-2009 at 02:20 PM.
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Old 11-12-2009, 02:20 PM   #12
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I don't do anything other than watch races/replays and generate my charts. I continually grow historical charts for horses and use these as PPs. No figures, no stats of any kind, no proprietary data, no touts (no external opinions). That way, I'm not dependent on anyone else. (Note the scrambling with TSN going out of business, for example.) All I need is access to the video and basic results (splits, positions, beaten lengths). If I can't do it on my own, then I'm not really doing it.

Last edited by the_fat_man; 11-12-2009 at 02:21 PM.
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Old 11-12-2009, 02:41 PM   #13
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I use Formulator with Moss Pace Figures, CJ's figures, Logic Dictates, and watch the day's races myself as I'm playing to get bias information which I put inside Formulator. Bias is the one thing I don't trust anyone but myself to do. I usually watch all the Grades Stakes too, but that's fun.

I pretty much don't do any work at all anymore other than handicapping and betting unless I am researching a new angle or insight.

I calculated figures for myself for years, but I don't see the point given that someone else is willing to sell me equal quality work for a very reasonable price. I just like to have multiple sources of figures to cross check and perhaps identify occasional errors when something doesn't look right.

I think you can definitely get information overload because it's extremely difficult to weigh large amounts of conflicting data properly and form an odds line. Though I do rank contenders in order of preference, it's a very rough ranking. I think the better approach is to look for profitable situations within several areas of handicapping.

In other words, I have trainer plays, pace plays, bias plays, figure plays, inefficient pool plays, arbitrage plays, class plays, surface switch plays etc... Each picks up on something the public often misunderstands.
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Last edited by classhandicapper; 11-12-2009 at 02:44 PM.
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Old 11-12-2009, 02:54 PM   #14
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There's data and then there's information. Don't confuse the two.

If you think having more data will help make the picture more clear, guess again. Think of it like creating a sculpture -- it's only when you take things away the work of art is revealed.

If you don't have a clear idea of how to handicap, deciding what approach works for today's race then no amount of data will solve your problem. It's like a journey: if you don't know where you are going then any road will get you there.
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Old 11-12-2009, 03:21 PM   #15
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All I need to know is who has the best Beyer.
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