In Your Opinion, What Age...

[AutumnLotus]

In your opinion, what age do you think is the prime age for a horse that equates to the most probable set of factors that because of the age of the horse can for the most part make you feel as confident as you can be?

In other words, would it be safe to say that 3 year olds have accumulated enough experience where we as handicappers can look at the horses PP's and see how the horses form have taken shape, i.e., how the horse has run enough in varying classes, distances, surface preference, etc., all of which reveals its' strong points/weak points.

Would it be 3 years old? Or 4 years old or other?

[JohnGalt1]

Five

[lefty359]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt1

Five

I agree

[racenomics]

Originally Posted by AutumnLotus

In your opinion, what age do you think is the prime age for a horse that equates to the most probable set of factors that because of the age of the horse can for the most part make you feel as confident as you can be?

In other words, would it be safe to say that 3 year olds have accumulated enough experience where we as handicappers can look at the horses PP's and see how the horses form have taken shape, i.e., how the horse has run enough in varying classes, distances, surface preference, etc., all of which reveals its' strong points/weak points.

Would it be 3 years old? Or 4 years old or other?

I believe there was some sort of research on this where the findings were the average horse is best at around 4.5 years old

[cj]

Originally Posted by racenomics

I believe there was some sort of research on this where the findings were the average horse is best at around 4.5 years old

I'd go 5 to 5.5 figure wise.

[racenomics]

Originally Posted by cj

I'd go 5 to 5.5 figure wise.

I found the place I found it… https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/art...204.45%20years.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by racenomics

I found the place I found it… https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/art...204.45%20years.

Interesting read. Thanks.

[cj]

Originally Posted by racenomics

I found the place I found it… https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/art...204.45%20years.

Nice, thanks.

[lamboguy]

5

[Mulerider]

Originally Posted by cj

Nice, thanks.

It was an interesting read. However, the authors acknowledge that "A potential sample selection problem exists because the top male horses often are retired to be breeding stallions well before they satisfy these cutoffs."

Published in 2010, that problem has only worsened in the interim.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Mulerider

It was an interesting read. However, the authors acknowledge that "A potential sample selection problem exists because the top male horses often are retired to be breeding stallions well before they satisfy these cutoffs."

Published in 2010, that problem has only worsened in the interim.

Definitely, and my experience still says 5 to 5.5 is the peak, but it is something I should probably query again since racing changes over time.

[rastajenk]

Are we talking about the age of peak performance, or the age range of form maintenance and consistency over some period of time? I think the original question was aimed at the latter, but I could be wrong.

[classhandicapper]

The data I have seen suggests fillies/mares mature sooner. The early spring 2yo fillies sometimes come out running as fast at the colts but the gap slowly widens though the 2yo and 3yo career. That theoretically could be a sprint/route thing also, but human females mature earlier. So I don't think it's stretch to think fillies/mares tend to peak sooner on average.

I never looked at the data on turf, but just by observation I see many more turf horses starting out way slower than their dirt equivalents and then reaching their peak much later. Some of that may be that more of higher quality ones stick around longer. Some of it may be how they are trained. Some of it may be that they stay sounder longer. By the time a dirt horse reaches 6-7 he may already be declining due to the wear of tear of racing, where more turf horses may still be sound and improving.

Of course I think you have to consider pedigree and trainer in all this. Some lines seem to mature earlier and others develop later. Some trainers work them hard and fast to peaks sooner and some go easy and take their time.

[BarchCapper]

I recall one of Mark Cramer's books having a section based on focusing on 5yo geldings - he had determined they were at their peak of ability/consistency.

[dilanesp]

Yeah it's still 5. We just don't get to see it very often because the best colts retire at 3. But someone like American Pharaoh, if he had stayed sound, would have been a superstar as a 5 year old. Secretariat too.