Gun Runner vs. Songbird

[reckless]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

I think we should look into grading races after they've been run. Because you can't tell me some of her grade 1 wins were grade 1 fields. Thats where critical analysis comes in, which unfortunately many just aren't interested in.

In the past 25 years I have Heavenly Prize, Inside Information, Silverbulletday, Rags to Riches (short career but beating Curlin sticks out), Rachel Alexandra, Azeri, Zenyatta, Royal Delta and Beholder as being better than her and I probably missed a few. I know we're talking opinions here but to me, that doesn't make her all time.

Do you remember Revidere, Dahoss?

She ran the very next year after Ruffian. Also by Revidere but not out of the same mare. Owned by the same people, too, Stuart Janney.

Her numbers were equal and often greater than Ruffian's were, by my way of doing speed figures at the time. Just sayin'.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by reckless

Do you remember Revidere, Dahoss?

She ran the very next year after Ruffian. Also by Revidere but not out of the same mare. Owned by the same people, too, Stuart Janney.

Her numbers were equal and often greater than Ruffian's were, by my way of doing speed figures at the time. Just sayin'.

I'm more familiar with Ruffian (obvious reasons) than Revidere but both were WAY before my time.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Where are you reading those, seriously, I would like to read professional pieces that make those statements?

I am asking honestly.

Through 13 races her record is historically great (cant see how that is arguable) but I dont see real professionals putting her in a class like that.

I haven't seen any articles. Just cat lady's and others on twitter.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

I haven't seen any articles. Just cat lady's and others on twitter.

Yea, well that would not be shocking at all.

It seems like those cat people are being used a bit as a strawman with a lot of responses I have seen.

[GMB@BP]

Speaking of Arrogate...was I the only one that felt Bafferts comments a bit, dont want to say concerning but to say the horse had a tough time coming out of Dubai and putting weight back on, well a horse like Gun Runner at his best can beat a down Arrogate.

[Fager Fan]

I ran across Serling on Twitter and see now where this thread came from. He questions is she's better than Gun Runner or Winx if she's the second best horse in the world. His list of better fillies is almost exactly parroted here. He riled some people too, including Paulick who told him he ought to delete his Twitter account, and also posted a video of Songbird getting the "last laugh."

One doofus questioned whether the filly is good for racing, if she actually brings anyone to the track. The answer would be yes. Ask Del Park.

I guess she's giving us all something to talk about which is always a good thing.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

I ran across Serling on Twitter and see now where this thread came from. He questions is she's better than Gun Runner or Winx if she's the second best horse in the world. His list of better fillies is almost exactly parroted here. He riled some people too, including Paulick who told him he ought to delete his Twitter account, and also posted a video of Songbird getting the "last laugh."

One doofus questioned whether the filly is good for racing, if she actually brings anyone to the track. The answer would be yes. Ask Del Park.

I guess she's giving us all something to talk about which is always a good thing.

That's actually not where the thread came from. I already explained where it came from when you asked the first time. I was curious to see how people thought she compared to the next best dirt horse after Arrogate.

You'd be better off not listening to the people who pm you. And frankly, the only person who got riled here was you.

[GMB@BP]

A little bit of this seems like a game of "gotcha", if you keep saying a horse should lose, keep picking against a horse, sooner or later your likely to be right.

When you pick a horse to lose every race I am not sure that strengthens the position that the horse is not as good as their record when the horse keeps winning, especially considering the schedule that this particular horse keeps.

I can appreciate the opinion that a horse may have a bit of an inflated record but when your 13/14 with 9 grade 1's at 5 or 6 tracks over 3 seasons...well knocking the horse seems a tad bit silly.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

What about in 94?

Whatever happened there doesn't seem related to her effort in '93.

She was caught wide throughout while under pressure to keep pace early and then failed to switch leads down the lane (as did 2nd-to-last Exchange). Went on a 6-month break following the race--which granted may have been the plan anyways regardless of performance.

Curiously, prior to the BC, Sky Beauty skipped an obvious start in the Beldame after winning the Ruffian under 130lbs. Perhaps that race took a lot out of her. Certainly Dispute came at her with a sharp run in the stretch (and subsequently won the Spinster).

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

A little bit of this seems like a game of "gotcha", if you keep saying a horse should lose, keep picking against a horse, sooner or later your likely to be right.

When you pick a horse to lose every race I am not sure that strengthens the position that the horse is not as good as their record when the horse keeps winning, especially considering the schedule that this particular horse keeps.

I can appreciate the opinion that a horse may have a bit of an inflated record but when your 13/14 with 9 grade 1's at 5 or 6 tracks over 3 seasons...well knocking the horse seems a tad bit silly.

Paulick said 7 tracks in 5 states, so I'd forgotten one earlier, the Cotillion at Parx.

SA
Del Mar
Belmont
Saratoga
Parx
Keeneland
Delaware

Anyone know the last horse to win G1s at 7 different tracks?

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

A little bit of this seems like a game of "gotcha", if you keep saying a horse should lose, keep picking against a horse, sooner or later your likely to be right.

When you pick a horse to lose every race I am not sure that strengthens the position that the horse is not as good as their record when the horse keeps winning, especially considering the schedule that this particular horse keeps.

I can appreciate the opinion that a horse may have a bit of an inflated record but when your 13/14 with 9 grade 1's at 5 or 6 tracks over 3 seasons...well knocking the horse seems a tad bit silly.

Who's playing gotcha and who has picked against her? Who in their right mind would pick against her Saturday? Who's knocking her?

You're a gambler (unlike Fager Fan) so I know you're able to look at things objectively. You can't beat the 9 grade 1s drum, but then totally refuse to acknowledge the grade 1s did not always feature grade 1 talent.

The Delaware Handicap was a grade 1 that featured Songbird and ONE other horse that had even won a graded stake, Weep No More. Since winning the Ashland (at 30-1), Weep No More has finished 7th, 5th, 4th, 5th, 6th and was 5th on Saturday, beaten around 28 lengths.

In her grade 1s last spring Songbird was beating Land Over Sea and Mokat. Land Over Sea has won ONE graded stake in her career. The grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks. She beat two horses that have won a graded stake in that race, Street Fancy, who won the Starlet (another bad grade 1) at Los Alamitos and Venus Valentine, 74-1 winner of the Rachel Alexandra in her prior start. Horses coming out of the FG oaks are a combined 2-33 with two allowance wins.

Mokat is an okay turf horse, winner of the grade 2 San Clemente, but has never won on dirt. Yes, that's right, ZERO dirt wins.

Songbird was brilliant through the summer winning the CCA Oaks and Alabama.
Not much behind her in either race except for Carina Mia, a sprinter but she was awesome. Again, in name they're grade 1s and it's not her fault that the crop is kind of light outside of her, but not grade 1 talent in either race. She crushed Cathryn Sophia at Parx, in another awesome effort. Cathryn Sophia would probably be the 2nd most accomplished 3 year old filly last year and she crushed her on a quirky track. Props on a big race.

And she ran lights out in the Breeders Cup, the first true grade 1 (IMO) that she ran in all year.

I think we'd both agree the Phipps was light this year. She was workmanlike, but the grade 1 horses were running in the Beholder Mile at Santa Anita. I do not begrudge them for not wanting to tackle them off a 7 month break.

So yes, the record is VERY impressive. But when she's getting mentioned historically, why is it taboo to examine that record? Why is it considered knocking if you're analyzing the races, their quality, etc?

I don't recall seeing anyone saying anything negative about her. I'm sure her feelings aren't being hurt, with people looking at her races objectively. The only feelings being hurt are those people who are covering their eyes and putting their fingers in their ears, while saying things like 9 grade 1s and top 5 filly of all time. That's silly if you ask me. Her record is "better" but do we even know she's a better horse than Stellar Wind? I know she beat her in the Distaff but I'm not sure she'd beat her 3 out of 5. And Stellar Wind beat Beholder twice.

One more question...what do you think Serena's Song record would look like if she ran in the same races? Silverbulletday? Azeri? Beholder? Zenyatta?

That's my point. Songbird is a brilliant filly. She's traveled and she's showed up every time. But historically, I don't think she matches up well....yet.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

On speed figures, Sky Beauty ran to form in the '93 BC Distaff. She hovered on either side of 100 BSF all year and she registered 101 in the BC. Both Hollywood Wildcat and Paseana were consistently faster than her throughout the season and remained so on BC day.

That's why Sky Beauty was 9-2 to Paseana's 5-2 and Hollywood Wildcat's 6-5 odds.

In her first trip to the west coast Sky Beauty was a 3yo going against older for the 1st time in the Breeder's Cup and there were some killers in that race. (I was there that day)

In her 2nd attempt she was so dreadful it's hard to argue she ran her race when shipped to CD.

You can easily argue she ran her race at 3 and was simply overmatched, but if you look at her overall record, the fact that Jerkens rarely shipped, and her poor race at CD, I think you can also argue she did not run up to par in the 1st attempt either. It depends how much faith you want to put in a 101 Beyer figure to express how well she ran that day.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

You can easily argue she ran her race at 3 and was simply overmatched, but if you look at her overall record, the fact that Jerkens rarely shipped, and her poor race at CD, I think you can also argue she did not run up to par in the 1st attempt either. It depends how much faith you want to put in a 101 Beyer figure to express how well she ran that day.

Beyond the speed figures, I think there is evidence that Sky Beauty ran to par in the '93 Distaff. Like Songbird, she too could be said to have been "overrated" based on overall record. In reality, she was beating the same old tired horses (i.e. Future Pretense, In Her Glory, Silky Feather) for the better part of the season.

The only horse of note she defeated was Dispute, which she did handily in both the Mother Goose and the CCA Oaks. Dispute had repelled her earlier in the Bonnie Miss and then took the Kentucky Oaks. Perhaps based on the Gulfstream effort, Jerry Bailey and McGaughey must have decided that Dispute was an out-and-out frontrunner, and in the Triple Tiara attempted to wire the field in both races to no avail. Fortunately, McGaughey pulled her from the Alabama to regroup on the turf. That failed, but in the fall Dispute blossomed and found renewed life as a closer. In the Gazelle, she smashed by open lengths the same fillies Sky Beauty was beating by only a length and a half or so.

That aside, it is also telling that while Dispute's campaign in the fall included the Gazelle (1st), the Ruffian (2nd), and the Beldame (1st)--all Grade 1s, two versus elders)--Sky Beauty only showed up for the Rare Perfume, a Grade 2 restricted to 3yos. Her performance in that lopsided race (on paper) was rather ordinary. Had Sky Beauty followed a logical fall campaign I would suggest that Dispute would have given her all she could handle.

In the BC itself, Sky Beauty stalked the pace, bid for the lead from the 3/8s to the 1/4 pole and then wilted in the stretch. Sure enough, Dispute rallied near the inside and got by her in the final furlong to be 4th, while making no impression on the CA horses.

[SharpCat]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

Paulick said 7 tracks in 5 states, so I'd forgotten one earlier, the Cotillion at Parx.

SA
Del Mar
Belmont
Saratoga
Parx
Keeneland
Delaware

Anyone know the last horse to win G1s at 7 different tracks?

American Pharoah won G1s at 8 different tracks.

Keenland
Monmouth
Belmont
Pimlico
Churchill
Oaklawn
Santa Anita
Del Mar

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by SharpCat

American Pharoah won G1s at 8 different tracks.

Cigar won at 7 tracks if you count Dubai.

Sunday Silence, Skip Away, Chief's Crown, High Chapparal, Point Given, and Bayakoa won at 6 tracks.