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Old 05-01-2007, 09:22 PM   #46
Cratos
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What History Doesn;t Tell

Quote:
Originally Posted by porchy44
Curlin did not race at 2. No horse has won the Derby without racing at 2 since 1882.

Curlin has made just three starts. No horse with 3 or fewer starts has won the Deby since 1915.

He may be the race favorite or 2nd choice in the betting.

The best two posts in this thread about Curlin winning the KY Derby come from the posts of Bruddah and DirtTrack. They clearly understand that in horseracing, it is not what you think that can’t happen, but you what you think doesn't happen.

Before the 1973 KY Derby you would gotten good odds on betting that Secretariat wouldn’t run a sub-2 minute Derby and then again in 2003 that a New York state-bred wouldn’t stop the timer in one of the faster run derbies ever. If all that isn’t enough, then explain the wins by Smarty Jones and Giacomo. Yes I know everybody had their child’s college tuition bet on Smarty, yet he closed at 4-1 odds or better.

Curlin might not win the Derby, matter of fact he might not hit the board, but at this juncture he is one of my top two choices.
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Old 05-01-2007, 09:22 PM   #47
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It is quite possible that no "un-raced-at-two" has won the Derby because none were CAPABLE of winning, raced or un-raced. Curlin may be more capable than most.
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Old 05-01-2007, 09:29 PM   #48
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cratos

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In horseracing, it is not what you think that can’t happen, but you what you think doesn't happen.
...did you sit next to me at the OTB once?
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Old 05-01-2007, 09:33 PM   #49
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the question you have to ask yourself is, what practial purpose does Curlin not racing at 2 have to do with this race? It's a useless stat becuase 1) he has talent, no one questions that, no 2 year olds have won since 1892 but how many have done what curlin has done and how he has done it as well? and 2) horse racing has changed. I promse you if this was 30 years ago, you would have saw Curlin at 2, but if you have a 2 year old with that type of ability you are going to make sure evey hickup is taken care of, becuase there is a pot-o-gold at the end of the rainbow that wasn't there as recently as 20 years ago
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Old 05-01-2007, 10:01 PM   #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chickenhead
...did you sit next to me at the OTB once?
CH,

You are the greatest!
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Old 05-01-2007, 10:23 PM   #51
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It idin't happen until after 2000, but making every horse a seperate betting interest has to have an affect on the betting favorite winning.
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Old 05-01-2007, 11:14 PM   #52
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Chickenhead

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Originally Posted by chickenhead
...did you sit next to me at the OTB once?
Sorry to disappoint you, but I never go to an OTB. However because you are so gracious, I will stop by the OTB at 3rd and 44th and look for a “Chickenhead." You shouldn’t be hard to recognize.
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Old 05-01-2007, 11:30 PM   #53
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be careful...you might hurt my feelings!

you can find me after the races are over, having dinner.

lighten up.
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Old 05-01-2007, 11:51 PM   #54
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Dominican/Curlin

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bruddah
Curlin has handled every race with professionalism. If you have kept up with this field of horses, it's not true of most. Anything from cotton in their ears, to blinkers, to shadow rolls and being able to correct their drifting or shyness down the stretch.

Let's also remember, Domincan was scheduled to run in the $1M Arkansas Derby( as a 2nd or 3rd favorite), but pulled out only days before, to engage a supposed, (tougher?) group of competitors in the $750k Blue Grass? (as a long shot) Obviously, Darin Miller was correct in placing Dominican in the Blue Grass. In hindsight it seems it may have been called ducking Curlin. On a straight up bet, I wager Curlin places better than Dominican in the Ky Derby. (JMHO)
Bruddah: First of all, (and Richard Bauer knows I would hardly be classified as someone who needs to bet on bicycle races, LOL) I do want to make it clear that it wouldn't shock me if Curlin wins, I simply said the price will be too short for me to even consider betting him as I strongly feel that he will go off around 4x1 or less. And even though I made a large wager on Smarty Jones at that price, at this point in his career he had impressed me a lot more. I also have an answer for you on Dominican running at Keeneland. I know for a FACT that Darin ran him there because he is a POLYTRACK horse (now 3/3 over Poly). Why would he run him at OP when he has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he loves the "poly"? I was more than a little happy to get 8x1 on him! As for Derby Day, he might beat Curlin, but I agree with you on a dirt surface it's unlikely.....

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Old 05-01-2007, 11:53 PM   #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pace Cap'n
It is quite possible that no "un-raced-at-two" has won the Derby because none were CAPABLE of winning, raced or un-raced. Curlin may be more capable than most.
It is the natural maturation that he is missing a.k.a. seasoning. Talented, yes. Inexperienced, yes.
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Old 05-02-2007, 07:38 AM   #56
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A formula for cashing a Ky Derby trifecta

1. do not evaluate any of the entrants on historical data.
2. do compare them on their 3 yo numbers alone and look for those improving.
3. do watch their ChurcHill workout figures.
4. make your best six selections.
5. do look at the (RAN) Raise A Native sire bloodlines of the final six.
6. eliminate all, but the horses with RAN bloodline
7. Use the RAN horses on the win line and put your 6 selections on the plc. and shw line.

8. Get a mint Julip and stand by the cashiers window. You can always watch the re-runs. Besides, you always want to be first in line.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND ENJOY THE GREATEST DAY IN HORSE RACING
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Old 05-02-2007, 08:52 AM   #57
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Not sure if anyone can help with this or not, but of the other 19 horses going to Run for the Roses, how many of them did not race at 2?

Also, how many times has it happened that a top 2 betting choice in the Derby was unraced at 2?

I understand it hasn't happened in over 100 yrs, but is it partially becuase 85%+ of the entries had raced at 2, or the horses that were unraced at 2 were longshots anyways...
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Old 05-02-2007, 11:41 AM   #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by uncbossfan

Also, how many times has it happened that a top 2 betting choice in the Derby was unraced at 2?
I don't have the stats on this but I am guessing you are correct that the number of entrants is low relative to all Derby starters, especially over the last 20 years or so.
Last year Showing Up looked a little like Curlin, maybe not quite as dominant, but had three lifetimes as well. I played him with Barbaro and he ran credible and in retrospect to how he turned out I am sure Tagg would have liked to have a little more seasoning in him for the Derby.

From memory, Air Forbes Won was the favorite in '82 without any 2 year old experience off a Wood win, my first time at the Derby. He ran up the track I think finishing 7th in a very weak field. Others mentioned Pulpit as well though I cannot remember if he was the favorite.
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Old 05-02-2007, 11:44 AM   #59
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Yes

Linking a lot of thinks people have said, I would like to make the following analogy. In the NFL coaches don't go for it on 4th down as much as they should. There is a good body of evidence for this. Why don't they?

Well, through the development of the league and its history teams probably shouldn't have been going for it. What remained? The "standard" notion that you shouldn't risk it --- it's not worth it. Even though the game has become more offensive, more formations are apparent with different styles of plays, heck, the rule changes have even made it more offensive.

In summary, coaches in the 50s and 60s probably were right in NOT going for it. But that remnant need not be the case right now, and it isn't necessarily the case. Just like the new training styles in racing; the layoffs, the unstarted 2 year olds, not to mention the breeding for speed vs. endurance in the modern days of racing --- these all show you how much it has changed and how it MIGHT not be right to go with historicals.

These are my thoughts. I'm echoing what a lot of people are saying. That said, how does Afleet Alex not win the Derby being much the best horse? His trip was great. Was the rail dead? He got outrun by two (relative) nags. Sometimes it's just racing, I guess. Was there something about the surface? He raced at 2, got 2nd in the BC Juvenile. Like Point Given, he just didn't fire. But boy did he fire over the next two. I think the most likely explanation is the navigation and circumstance of 20 horses and a huge crowd. Who knows.

LSK
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Old 05-02-2007, 11:48 AM   #60
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What a difference a day makes
Nice to see I am not the only one defending/supporting Curlin

Here are the BRIS Speed Ratings for last 17 years of winners and most of this years crop:

Quote:

Derby winners' BRIS Speed ratings in three-year-old starts
Derby Winner Speed Ratings Last race (finish)

BARBARO 104 (Fla. Derby), 104 (2 back), 97 Florida Derby (1st)
GIACOMO 100, 96, 98 Santa Anita Derby (4th)
SMARTY JONES 105, 109, 101, 103 Arkansas Derby (1st)
FUNNY CIDE 111, 103, 97 Wood Memorial (2nd)
WAR EMBLEM 109, 105, 88, 94 Illinois Derby (1st)
MONARCHOS 108, 108, 106, 98 Wood Memorial (2nd)
FUSAICHI PEGASUS 110, 103, 100, 98 Wood Memorial (1st)
CHARISMATIC 104, 94, 94, 94, 88, 83, 88 Lexington (1st)
REAL QUIET 107, 103, 73 Santa Anita Derby (2nd)
SILVER CHARM 102, 98, 105 Santa Anita Derby (2nd)
GRINDSTONE 101, 102, 93 Arkansas Derby (2nd)
THUNDER GULCH 98, 103, 106 Blue Grass (4th)
GO FOR GIN 104, 105, 99, 100 Wood Memorial (2nd)
SEA HERO 96, 85, 77 Blue Grass (4th)
LIL E. TEE 102, 96, 107, 100 Arkansas Derby (2nd)
STRIKE THE GOLD 109, 100, 99, 87 Blue Grass (1st)
UNBRIDLED 108, 101, 104, 98 Blue Grass (3rd)

BRIS Speed ratings for this year's contenders
Horse 2007 Speed ratings Last race (finish)

ANY GIVEN SATURDAY 98, 105, 97 Wood Memorial (3rd)
BWANA BULL 94, 93, 93 Santa Anita Derby (5th)
CIRCULAR QUAY 105, 90 Louisiana Derby (1st)
COBALT BLUE 86, 98, 99 Illinois Derby (7th)
COWTOWN CAT 106, 96, 90, 98 Illinois Derby (1st)
CURLIN 102, 101, 101 Arkansas Derby (1st)
DOMINICAN 98, 98 Blue Grass (1st)
GREAT HUNTER 96, 100 Blue Grass (5th)
HARD SPUN 106, 98, 101 Lane's End (1st)
IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY 94, 98, 98 Florida Derby (6th)
LIQUIDITY 95, 96, 101 Santa Anita Derby (4th)
NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ 102, 100, 103 Wood Memorial (1st)
REPORTING FOR DUTY 103, 90, 99, 90 Illinois Derby (2nd)
SAM P. 96, 99, 90 Santa Anita Derby (3rd)
SCAT DADDY 101, 101, 100 Florida Derby (1st)
SEDGEFIELD 82, 103, 92, 90 Transylvania (4th)
STORM IN MAY 90, 89, 86, 99, 90 Arkansas Derby (2nd)
STORMELLO 96, 101 Florida Derby (4th)
STREET SENSE 98, 105 Blue Grass (2nd)
TEUFLESBERG 97, 91, 102, 90 Blue Grass (4th)
TIAGO 100, 89, 88 Santa Anita Derby (1st)
XCHANGER 102, 86, 97 Federico Tesio (1st)
ZANJERO 97, 99, 97 Blue Grass (3rd)
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