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Old 05-01-2007, 02:14 PM   #16
crownx
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This horse will not go off at even money and will also lose. Steven won't have the benefit of those old blind eye stewards of OP.


Curlin is the media hype horse. Every year they need one and he is it.
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Old 05-01-2007, 02:16 PM   #17
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it's easy

to say that one horse won't win. and by the way, no one remembers that you said a horse wouldn't win, because it's not much of a prediction. conversely, they say you lose when you picked 1 of 20 TO WIN, and it didn't happen. interesting how human beings think of things

LSK

ps- anyone have data on how often favorites win in horse racing? i always had heard 33% but has that held in the last 10 years?
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Old 05-01-2007, 02:26 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crownx
Steven won't have the benefit of those old blind eye stewards of OP.
Lost me on this one - care to explain?
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Old 05-01-2007, 02:34 PM   #19
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Favorites/Curlin

Quote:
Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid
to say that one horse won't win. and by the way, no one remembers that you said a horse wouldn't win, because it's not much of a prediction. conversely, they say you lose when you picked 1 of 20 TO WIN, and it didn't happen. interesting how human beings think of things

LSK

ps- anyone have data on how often favorites win in horse racing? i always had heard 33% but has that held in the last 10 years?
LSK: The % of winning favorites has held steady at around 30-35% over the last several years, and although I am one on this thread that said I don't believe Curlin will win, (I stand by that) I was really making the larger point that I just don't think as the favorite or 2nd choice (again given the % above and a 20 horse field) that it would make any fiscal sense to wager on ANY short price horse in The Derby, Curlin Included!

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Old 05-01-2007, 02:43 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DirtTrack
I do understand how hard the derby is to win and the best horse does not always get it done but it would take real idiot to throw Curlin out of the exotics

But PLEASE continue to talk about what a slouch of a horse he is so I can win decent $$$
DT,

IMHO: You took several points out of context and made several exaggerations, but these two stood out to me. “Slouch”…I must have missed where someone suggested this.

I’m not saying he will go off near this price, but at 1/9 for example, only an “idiot” would bet him. Gambling is only our perception of probabilities, nothing more. To state only an “idiot” would do anything without seeing the price offered is…well…with all due respect, you know the rest.
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Old 05-01-2007, 02:50 PM   #21
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Boom

What is "short" to you in the Derby though? I tend to agree with you, but this horse could be a monster. I haven't made my final picks (I will Wednesday night) but he's one I'm considering in some fashion, Mr. Curlin.

In any case, what is the minimum odds that you would take Curlin (unless you don't like him at all). I think Street Sense will be the favorite, around 5 or so.

LSK
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Old 05-01-2007, 03:08 PM   #22
DirtTrack
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DG:
This idiot collected over $300 profit when Curlin went off below even odds on 4/14 - will gladly be called stupid and cash tickets any day

Anyone changing their picks based on probable off odds is probably throwing out a lot of winners - as mentioned above 30-35% of favorites win races

Curlin will probably go off at about 4-1 (I seem to remember Smarty around that and he had 5x the hype)

The hype:
Street Sense since winning the BCJ
NoBiz - media loves the name and received most attention last 2 months
HardSpun - Lanes End and blazing workout
AnyGSat - competed with Street Sense
ScattDaddy - beat NoBiz and won FOY and FloridaDerby

Couple of others will get a lot of play as well - will not be a heavy favorite at post time

Curlin is as good as I have seen in the 23+ years I have followed and will play a part in the final outcome Saturday
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Old 05-01-2007, 03:19 PM   #23
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fair enough

Scat Daddy is certainly not hype. He's probably the most accomplished and no one talks about him.

LSK
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Old 05-01-2007, 03:20 PM   #24
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Dirt Track, your from AR, so you know exactly what goes on there. I am not here to start trouble.

Curlin is a fast horse, I am handicapping past the OP preps. Curlin looked great vs those fields, never challenged and never headed in the str, clear running room easy trip. The Derby will test that,and at 2-1 I would sit on my hands. He is a better bet, if he wins the derby at 2-5 in a six horse preakness field. I personally llike many here dont' think he can pass the challenge, I have no magic eight ball, just years of handicapping just as you and many others here have.
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Old 05-01-2007, 03:27 PM   #25
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You honestly think he's better than both Afleet Alex and Smarty Jones? I really don't see it. He seems more Lawyer Ron to me that either of those 2 and those are just the last 3 years in Arkansas, let alone the other 20 you've seen. If its true, then you got money in the bank coming your way with 0 risk because the first 2 on my list would bury this years group. I'm sticking with my prediction of 10th or worse for him.
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Old 05-01-2007, 03:35 PM   #26
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its all about the odds. I don't think there is any horse in here that warrants play at 6-1 or below. That said, I don't like Curlin at 10-1.
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Old 05-01-2007, 03:35 PM   #27
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crownx,

I have always thought OP was one of the better run tracks I have played.
Was the shocker incident in the Derby a few years back but outside of that it is about as clean as track as you will find (but we are still talking horse racing...)
Back review of the form and can almost always see how the longshot winner was missed and so on...

Rare occasion any horse goes off at 2-1 in the derby and betting appears to be wide open in this one so I am puzzled on why several are wanting to throw out a horse for low odds that will probably not even be the favorite at post time?

Good Luck to all on Saturday
We will all need it no matter who the winner is
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Old 05-01-2007, 03:48 PM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTM Al
You honestly think he's better than both Afleet Alex and Smarty Jones?
YES - have posted that about 3 times on PA
and not just because he ran at OP
Thought Lawyer Ron was over-rated and he was but Curlin is a special horse
Go watch his race replays and see that he has the style needed to win the Derby (stalker not too far back) and is a push button horse that takes off when Robbie lets him go
Is a lot like Smarty but seems to have more down the stretch
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Old 05-01-2007, 03:59 PM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DirtTrack
I am puzzled on why several are wanting to throw out a horse for low odds that will probably not even be the favorite at post time?

The odds aren't the main reason why Curlin isn't bettable.
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Old 05-01-2007, 04:02 PM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ron
The odds aren't the main reason why Curlin isn't bettable.
INEXPERIENCE is a big one.......

Tapit had the same problem as did many others over the years. Exceptions: Fusaichi Pegasus, Barbaro but even these two had more chances it get bumped and fight back than the "possible" superstar here.

This one has done everything asked of him, BUT imagine the noise the pace pressure (which is alway nuts on that day and in that race). I would be concerned.
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