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Old 09-25-2020, 03:21 PM   #1
MPRanger
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Bill Benter /Models and Overlays

Been listening to The Perfect Bet on Audibel. It was interesting that the author said Bill Benter the Hong Kong horse racing expert found that betting overlays lost him money until he adjusted to a number between his model and the tote board.

Also that only a population of about a thousand horses raced between the two Hong Kong tracks and shippers are rare. Seems like a database could easily be maintained. Maybe that's why he could use a model vs handicapping with tried and true elements of handicapping.

All thru the book the author refers to top contestants in racing and sports as predictions. I don't see handicapping as making predictions but evaluations where price is the determining factor.

Great book though.
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Old 09-25-2020, 03:45 PM   #2
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Are you assuming his model DOES NOT include tried and true elements of handicapping.
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Old 09-25-2020, 03:58 PM   #3
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Are you assuming his model DOES NOT include tried and true elements of handicapping.
No, just that he uses a model for horse racing.
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Old 09-25-2020, 04:15 PM   #4
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Also that only a population of about a thousand horses raced between the two Hong Kong tracks and shippers are rare. Seems like a database could easily be maintained.
I didn't know that. That's a pretty significant point.

Following only a 1000 horses would allow you track every trip, every bias, every race flow, every figure, how every horse is coming out of every race much easier than playing horses in the US where the horse population is gigantic. Here, even if you follow one circuit very closely, you are constantly dealing with horses from other circuits whose races you haven't seen, that ran on days you know nothing about, at class levels you are less familiar with, whose cross circuit figures are less trustworthy, and whose drug policies may be different.
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Old 09-25-2020, 05:39 PM   #5
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Thumbs up

Bill Benter and his accomplishments have been covered numerous times on the PA forum.

All the information you'll ever need is on the Hong Kong Jockey Club Web site (lots of informative Web links):
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/infor.../RaceCard.aspx

It's one of many reasons I play HK and post the following each time in the Selection Forum (including this Sun morning)
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Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!

Iíll be posting my live selections for the early races & pre-race selections later on for this very competitive race card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races at Sha Tin with 8 races on Turf & 2 on the Dirt:

Post Time Race #1 Ė 1:00 AM SUN EST
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Old 09-25-2020, 10:02 PM   #6
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1359 non-retired horses eligible to race as of today. Some with records clearly favouring one track or the other, one surface or the other (All Weather vs Turf), etc, etc.

https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/infor...ormerName.aspx

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Old 09-26-2020, 12:05 AM   #7
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This is from memory, but as I recall, they start each season with 1,200 + 200 alternates.

Other than "Invitational" races, it is a closed environment.

That's why the class structure works so well. Although done differently, somewhat akin to dog racing.
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Old 09-26-2020, 11:26 AM   #8
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1000 horses?? That sounds stagnant. And so many questions come to mind. Both as an official and as a horseplayer. At first blush, it sounds like a catch-22: campaign available stock with discretion and keep horses sound, but that should, in theory, lead to some short fields. How many days per week do they run?? And how many races?? And if they repopulate only with young horses, they must card lots of mdn races. I would guess they have stern regulations applied in an inflexible manner.

As far as charting every horse to death, are you guys sure that's not just to appease some need for control?? lol.. ( and that from a guy who prides himself on extreme familiarity with two tracks only). In my opinion, the sort of handicapper dedicated enough to pursue that degree of local knowledge would outstrip his peers, anyway, in assessing shippers-even by taking just a cursory look.

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Old 09-26-2020, 12:25 PM   #9
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As far as charting every horse to death, are you guys sure that's not just to appease some need for control?? lol.. ( and that from a guy who prides himself on extreme familiarity with two tracks only). In my opinion, the sort of handicapper dedicated enough to pursue that degree of local knowledge would outstrip his peers, anyway, in assessing shippers-even by taking just a cursory look.
I can only speak for myself, but when I have all my bias and trips notes laid out in the Formulator PPs and am familiar with all the horses and classes, I can quickly look at a race and focus in on who might be better or worse than they look on paper and provide a potential bet.

When the race is loaded with horses I don't know, I may take a quick look at the charts that day, the horses in the races they are coming out of, and perhaps watch a replay, but my opinions are never strong. That not good for me "personally" because I'm cautious before pulling the trigger.

If you want to laugh, I'm never more confident about a bet than I am on mule races. There are around 40 mules on that fair circuit (even less in recent years). I know every single one them as well as possible because I have notes on every mule in every race for years, have seen every pan and head-on replay multiple times and have my own figures. I don't get many good prices, but I know them so well, sometimes I take 1-1 or 6/5 and know I'm stealing. I rarely take less than 5/2 or 3/1 on horses.
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Old 09-26-2020, 12:34 PM   #10
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[QUOTE=mountainman;2656162]1000 horses?? That sounds stagnant. And so many questions come to mind. Both as an official and as a horseplayer. At first blush, it sounds like a catch-22: campaign available stock with discretion and keep horses sound, but that should, in theory, lead to some short fields. How many days per week do they run?? And how many races?? And if they repopulate only with young horses, they must card lots of mdn races. I would guess they have stern regulations applied in an inflexible manner.

They run twice a week, with 8 races on Wednesday with 12 horse fields and 10 to 11 on the weekend card with 12 to 14 in each race. 99% of the horses are geldings so they don't retire as quickly as they do here in north America, but they do have to keep a certain rating or they are forced to retire at the end of the year. Also, there are no maiden races, they do have what they call Griffin races which are for young runners who have no ratings but there are very few of those the entire year.
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Old 09-26-2020, 12:39 PM   #11
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[quote=woodbinepmi;2656185]
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Originally Posted by mountainman View Post
1000 horses?? That sounds stagnant. And so many questions come to mind. Both as an official and as a horseplayer. At first blush, it sounds like a catch-22: campaign available stock with discretion and keep horses sound, but that should, in theory, lead to some short fields. How many days per week do they run?? And how many races?? And if they repopulate only with young horses, they must card lots of mdn races. I would guess they have stern regulations applied in an inflexible manner.

They run twice a week, with 8 races on Wednesday with 12 horse fields and 10 to 11 on the weekend card with 12 to 14 in each race. 99% of the horses are geldings so they don't retire as quickly as they do here in north America, but they do have to keep a certain rating or they are forced to retire at the end of the year. Also, there are no maiden races, they do have what they call Griffin races which are for young runners who have no ratings but there are very few of those the entire year.
tx..twice a week explains a lot.
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Old 09-26-2020, 01:15 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman View Post
1000 horses?? That sounds stagnant. And so many questions come to mind. Both as an official and as a horseplayer. At first blush, it sounds like a catch-22: campaign available stock with discretion and keep horses sound, but that should, in theory, lead to some short fields. How many days per week do they run?? And how many races?? And if they repopulate only with young horses, they must card lots of mdn races. I would guess they have stern regulations applied in an inflexible manner.

As far as charting every horse to death, are you guys sure that's not just to appease some need for control?? lol.. ( and that from a guy who prides himself on extreme familiarity with two tracks only). In my opinion, the sort of handicapper dedicated enough to pursue that degree of local knowledge would outstrip his peers, anyway, in assessing shippers-even by taking just a cursory look.
They run twice a week, with 8 races on Wednesday with 12 horse fields and 10 to 11 on the weekend card with 12 to 14 in each race. 99% of the horses are geldings so they don't retire as quickly as they do here in north America, but they do have to keep a certain rating or they are forced to retire at the end of the year. Also, there are no maiden races, they do have what they call Griffin races which are for young runners who have no ratings but there are very few of those the entire year.
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Old 09-26-2020, 07:19 PM   #13
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[quote=woodbinepmi;2656185]
Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman View Post
1000 horses?? That sounds stagnant. And so many questions come to mind. Both as an official and as a horseplayer. At first blush, it sounds like a catch-22: campaign available stock with discretion and keep horses sound, but that should, in theory, lead to some short fields. How many days per week do they run?? And how many races?? And if they repopulate only with young horses, they must card lots of mdn races. I would guess they have stern regulations applied in an inflexible manner.

They run twice a week, with 8 races on Wednesday with 12 horse fields and 10 to 11 on the weekend card with 12 to 14 in each race. 99% of the horses are geldings so they don't retire as quickly as they do here in north America, but they do have to keep a certain rating or they are forced to retire at the end of the year. Also, there are no maiden races, they do have what they call Griffin races which are for young runners who have no ratings but there are very few of those the entire year.
The safety limit at Happy Valley is 12, Sha Tin Dirt sprint 12 route 14 and Sha Tin Turf is 14.

The HKJC buys horses from the US and UK sales and they resell those to the HK owners, these are the majority of the new horses and the griffins you see. HK owners can also private purchase horses and they get imported under a new name.
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Old 09-26-2020, 07:21 PM   #14
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They run twice a week, with 8 races on Wednesday with 12 horse fields and 10 to 11 on the weekend card with 12 to 14 in each race. 99% of the horses are geldings so they don't retire as quickly as they do here in north America, but they do have to keep a certain rating or they are forced to retire at the end of the year. Also, there are no maiden races, they do have what they call Griffin races which are for young runners who have no ratings but there are very few of those the entire year.
Also worth noting if you bleed twice, you're done. The group placed Thanks Forever had to retire due to his 2nd bleeding attack during trackwork last week. Horse can still race elsewhere (obviously USA is the option they'll probably look to sell to).
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Old 09-27-2020, 12:12 AM   #15
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1000 horses?? That sounds stagnant. And so many questions come to mind. Both as an official and as a horseplayer. At first blush, it sounds like a catch-22: campaign available stock with discretion and keep horses sound, but that should, in theory, lead to some short fields. How many days per week do they run?? And how many races?? And if they repopulate only with young horses, they must card lots of mdn races. I would guess they have stern regulations applied in an inflexible manner.
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tx..twice a week explains a lot.
Ya know I could expect uninformed comments like this from those who have little knowledge or experience in the horse racing game. But I find comments made like this by someone whoís been in the game for such a long time very disappointing. Although I find them rather novice, you my friend apparently no idea what your assumptions signify.

Iíve been playing the HK circuit now going into my 6th year. I personally find it invigorating and refreshing especially when compared to State-side racing. Everything about it is as far as Iím concerned a horse playerís dream, come true. Iím not going reiterate all of the positive aspects of their product. Itís really unnecessary considering the handle that their patrons produce. In fact, I would wager that a typical single dayís 10 race card at Sha Tin would generate a larger handle than Mountaineer could produce in an entire year (even they raced every day of the week). Why does anyone suppose a guy like Benter would even venture into that sort of gambling environment to begin with?

Iíll just add a few facts to perhaps enlighten those who might be interested:
1) They very few Maiden (Griffin) type races
2) They have no Claiming or Allowance type races Ė mostly Handicaps
3) They donít race for the purpose of breeding. They race for the sake of racing Ė period.
4) They do have very strict regulations and enforcement by offering transparency at every level.
5) They donít permit the use of drugs on race day entries.
6) The stock has to prove themselves time and again in race trials before theyíre permitted to compete.
7) Etc, Etc
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