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Old 07-02-2020, 05:19 PM   #16
Aner
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Ind 7

Pass #7
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Old 07-02-2020, 05:35 PM   #17
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Bel 9

Pass #3, #5
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Old 07-02-2020, 05:55 PM   #18
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Ind 8

Maybe #4
Pass #8, #9
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Old 07-02-2020, 07:15 PM   #19
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Los Al 7

Pass #8, #9, #10
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Old 07-02-2020, 07:57 PM   #20
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Maybe Horses

11 bets (4 hit board)

Bel 5---#3 -------, -------,6.50
Elp 4---#3 41.60, 19.60, 7.00
Elp 4---#8 ------, 6.60, 3.20
Ind 5---#1 ------, 8.60, 6.00

Win 41.60-22.00 = +19.60
Place 34.80 - 22.00 = +12.80
Show 22.70 - 22.00 = +0.70

Pass Horses


32 bets (3 hit board)

Bel 6-----#1 -------, -------, -6.50
Ind 5-----#2, 43.80, 19.60, 10.40
LA 7------#7 -------, -------, 15.60

Win 43.80-64.00 = minus 20.20
Place 19.60 - 64.00 = minus 44.40
Show 32.20-64.00 = minus 31.80
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Old 07-02-2020, 08:01 PM   #21
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Great thread idea.
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Old 07-02-2020, 10:09 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aner View Post
7/2/20

Bel 2

Maybe = PP#3
Pass = PP#4
Hey Aner

You passed on #4 @Bel but he came in 3rd paying $12.20 to show which was actually the biggest price of the day

Code:
1	2020-07-02	2nd race	4	Curlins Legacy (NY)	Claiming	One Mile	P J Kelly	20/1#	Turf Firm	0.0	0.0	12.2
When you stop to consider that the average win price today was a mere $6 bucks and 8 out of 9 win prices were under $8 your pick was pretty impressive

Code:
RowNum:	PgmNum:	Win$:	Place$:	Show$:	Dist:	RaceCond:TrackCond:	Fieldof:Race#:	Date:		ML	-----Horse------	-----Trainer------
1	1	6.8	3.2	2.2	1 M	Mdn SpclDirt Fast	7	1st	07-02-2020	  2/1#	Sharp Starr (NY)	H DePaz
2	8	3.8	2.9	2.7	1 M	Clm	Turf Firm	7	2nd	07-02-2020	  9/5#	Catch a Cab (NY)	M J Maker
3	1	7.6	4.2	3.2	1 1/16 MMdn SpclDirt Fast	7	3rd	07-02-2020	  2/1#	Blackjack Davey (NY)	L Rice
4	5	5.3	3.3	2.6	6 Furl	Clm	Dirt Fast	8	4th	07-02-2020	  9/5#	Flashpackinbarbie (NY)	J R Abreu
5	6	8.8	3.7	3.0	7 Furl	Clm	Dirt Fast	9	5th	07-02-2020	  2/1#	Stay Fond (KY)		M Miceli
6	7	4.9	2.9	2.7	1 1/16 MAlw Op CDirt Fast	8	6th	07-02-2020	  6/5#	Creed (KY)		C R McGaughey III
7	9	7.1	4.1	3.9	1 M	Alw Op CDirt Fast	8	7th	07-02-2020	  5/2#	Complexity (KY)		C C Brown
8	1	3.0	2.4	2.1	1 M	Stakes	Turf Firm	6	8th	07-02-2020	  4/5#	Fifty Five (NY)		C C Brown
9	4	7.0	4.7	3.8	1 1/8 M	Mdn Clm	Turf Firm	10	9th	07-02-2020	  10/1#	Apollos Abraxas (NY)	K Laudati

8 Prices under $8	88.8%	Avg Win $	6				
	
ML Odds	Win/Att	Pct	Win Amt	Cost	P / L	Pct Rtrn per $1			
5/2	1/3	33.3%	7.1	6	1.1	18%			
2/1	3/3	100%	23.2	6	17.2	286%			
*All/5	4/4	100%	17	8	9	112%
*All/5 = (1/5,2/5,,,,9/5) any Morning Line ending with 5

Looks like a setup for the weekend to have some huge prices for the upcoming holiday

Last edited by TheOracle; 07-02-2020 at 10:24 PM.
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Old 07-03-2020, 10:04 AM   #23
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Right now you are just breaking even with his Claimers at Belmont overall

Code:
1	06-03-2020	10th race	4	Our Stormin Norman (KY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	M Kantarmaci	8/1#	S			3.8
2	06-05-2020	1st race	1	Booby Trap (KY)		Clm	Dirt Muddy	1 1/16 MM Kantarmaci	30/1#				
3	06-05-2020	1st race	7	Inclunation (KY)	Clm	Dirt Muddy	1 1/16 MM Kantarmaci	12/1#				
4	06-05-2020	3rd race	12	Majestic Affair (KY)	Clm	Dirt Muddy	6.5 FurlM Kantarmaci	15/1#				
5	06-07-2020	3rd race	2	Cotton Candy Cutie (NY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	M Kantarmaci	15/1#	S			11.8
6	06-11-2020	3rd race	7	Dr. Deveras Way (KY)	Clm	Dirt Good	6.5 FurlM Kantarmaci	6/1#	P		14.2	7.7
7	06-12-2020	2nd race	8	Bertranda (NY)		Clm	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	M Kantarmaci	9/5#	P		3.4	2.4
8	06-12-2020	3rd race	6	Reed Kan (FL)		Clm	Dirt Fast	6.5 FurlM Kantarmaci	10/1#	W	10.8	6.8	4.7
9	06-19-2020	3rd race	1	Booby Trap (KY)		Clm	Dirt Fast	6.5 FurlM Kantarmaci	10/1#				
10	06-19-2020	3rd race	1A	Talent Scout (KY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	6.5 FurlM Kantarmaci	10/1#				
11	06-19-2020	6th race	5	Jump for Joy (PA)	Clm	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	M Kantarmaci	8/1#	P		8.6	4.6
12	06-21-2020	4th race	2	More Than Striking (FL)	Clm	Dirt Fast	1 M	M Kantarmaci	7/2#				
13	06-25-2020	2nd race	10	Our Stormin Norman (KY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	6.5 FurlM Kantarmaci	6/1#				
14	06-26-2020	1st race	6	Dr. Deveras Way (KY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	6.5 FurlM Kantarmaci	6/1#	P		5.2	5.7
15	06-26-2020	4th race	5	Cobra Sophie (ON)	Clm	Turf Firm	6 Furl	M Kantarmaci	15/1#				
16	07-02-2020	5th race	5	Cotton Candy Cutie (NY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	M Kantarmaci	10/1#	P		4.0	3.2

ML Odds		Strts	1st	2nds	3rds	Win %	Win $	Cost	Return	% Return						
all odds	16	1	5	2	6.2%	$10.8	$32	$-21.2	-67%
						
						WPS %	WPS $	Cost	Return	% Rtrn	Shw $
						50%     $96.9	$96	$0.90	0%	43.9
Kantarmaci has these Claimers today

Code:
pick07-03-20201	07-03-2020	2nd race	5	Cobra Sophie (ON)	Claiming	One Mile	M Kantarmaci	20/1#	Turf
pick07-03-20202	07-03-2020	2nd race	11	Beach Dreaming (KY)	Claiming	One Mile	M Kantarmaci	5/1#	Turf
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
pick07-03-20203	07-03-2020	5th race	1	Reed Kan (FL)		Claiming	Six Furlongs	M Kantarmaci	8/1#	Dirt
I have my doubts about his Turfers but #1 Reed Kan (FL) might be in the money at a pop!!!

Let's see if he can hit the board today with these at a price!!!

Last edited by TheOracle; 07-03-2020 at 10:18 AM.
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Old 07-03-2020, 10:22 AM   #24
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Noda has one that might pop today at Belmont

Code:
pick07-03-20201	07-03-2020	6th race	2	Super Twenty Seven (KY)	Alw Opt Clm	One And One SixtO Noda	30/1#	Dirt
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...24#post2627024

Let's see if he can hit the board today at a price!!!

Last edited by TheOracle; 07-03-2020 at 10:23 AM.
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Old 07-03-2020, 10:48 AM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aner View Post
Maybe Horses

11 bets (4 hit board)

Bel 5---#3 -------, -------,6.50
Elp 4---#3 41.60, 19.60, 7.00
Elp 4---#8 ------, 6.60, 3.20
Ind 5---#1 ------, 8.60, 6.00

Win 41.60-22.00 = +19.60
Place 34.80 - 22.00 = +12.80
Show 22.70 - 22.00 = +0.70

Pass Horses


32 bets (3 hit board)

Bel 6-----#1 -------, -------, -6.50
Ind 5-----#2, 43.80, 19.60, 10.40
LA 7------#7 -------, -------, 15.60

Win 43.80-64.00 = minus 20.20
Place 19.60 - 64.00 = minus 44.40
Show 32.20-64.00 = minus 31.80
What we don't know if you are handicapping these horses. Actually, I don't even need to know that. Just remember that this is a very small sample and you could lose 50 in a row. I'm not a "the sample has to be a million races" guy, but since I don't know the criteria I would think you'd need to do this for a while before you can bet with any confidence.

If you continue to do this and get a large enough sample that you can analyze it, the logical thing to do is break down whether you're better in certain types of races, on turf or dirt, at certain tracks, with different field sizes, etc. Then you can concentrate on what is working best for you and refine it.
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Old 07-03-2020, 02:20 PM   #26
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7/3/20

Bel 3--- Pass #4
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Old 07-03-2020, 02:44 PM   #27
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Lrl 5

Maybe #10
Pass #4, #5, #7, #11, #12
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Old 07-03-2020, 02:50 PM   #28
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Bel 4

Maybe #10
Pass #5, #6, #9
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Old 07-03-2020, 03:00 PM   #29
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GP 7

Pass #6, #7
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Old 07-03-2020, 03:13 PM   #30
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Lrl 6

Maybe #6
Pass #1, #8, #11, #12
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