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Old 04-21-2020, 01:11 AM   #1
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Epidemiologist: Why Lockdowns Are The Wrong Policy


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Johan Giesecke trained as an infectious disease clinician in Stockholm, Sweden during the 1980’s, and from his work with AIDS patients he became interested in the epidemiology of infectious diseases. He received an MSc in epidemiology from London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in 1992, and then worked as a Senior Lecturer at the school for a few years. After this he became State Epidemiologist for Sweden (1995 to 2005) and during a one-year sabbatical 1999-2000 he led the group working on the revision of the International Health Regulations at WHO HQ. From 2005 to 2014 he was the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).

Professor Giesecke has written a textbook on infectious disease epidemiology, and now teaches on this subject as a professor emeritus at the Karolinska Institute Medical University in Stockholm.
https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...en/index2.html
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Old 04-21-2020, 01:51 AM   #2
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i agree with that guy

we are showing 42,000 deaths right now and my guess is that there are over 100 million people that have had this virus in their bodies now and will likely close to double that before this is done.

bad virus yes, high death rate compared to average flu, but not a virus that is going to wipe out the world either.

at some point there will be a virus that does us all in, i just hope its not in our lifetime.
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Old 04-21-2020, 01:56 AM   #3
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https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/0...s-are-working/

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‘There’s no direct evidence that the lockdowns are working’
Dr John A Lee on why we need to keep questioning the response to Covid-19.
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Old 04-21-2020, 02:02 AM   #4
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https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coro...ptoms/2381150/

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Originally Posted by Dr. Michael Mina of Harvard’s School of Public Health
"we have just been off the mark by huge, huge numbers" for estimating total infections, he said.
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Old 04-21-2020, 05:35 AM   #5
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Sweden slow to adopt Covid-19 mitigation measures
https://www.pharmaceutical-technolog...d-19-measures/

As data reporting for Covid-19 continues to improve and the numbers of confirmed cases and deaths continue to rise, the effects of different approaches to the pandemic begin to emerge. Sweden has been slow to adopt any measures intended to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus pandemic and the morbid results are evident. Sweden has a significantly higher mortality rate from Covid-19 than its neighbouring counties.

Figure 1 presents the rate of death (deaths per 1,000,000 population) from Covid-19, in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland.

It is now highly evident that those countries that were quick to adopt strong measures of social isolation, distancing, and testing have seen the best possible outcomes in this crisis in terms of mortality prevention so far.

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Old 04-21-2020, 05:59 AM   #6
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Critics question Swedish approach as coronavirus death toll reaches 1,000
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...l-reaches-1000

Scientists question light-touch tactics as other Nordic


Sweden has passed the grim milestone of 1,200 coronavirus deaths, far exceeding the tolls of its nearest neighbours, but suggested it may be nearing the outbreak’s peak as scientists continue to question the government’s light-touch approach.

The Public Health Agency announced a death toll of 1,203 people from Covid-19 on Wednesday, a rate of 118 per million inhabitants, compared with 55 in Denmark and just 13 in Finland, both of which imposed strict early lockdowns to curb the virus’s spread.

Sweden’s per-million tally is also significantly higher than the 42 recorded in Germany – but remains lower than the UK’s rate of 182 (as of Tuesday) and far below Italy’s 349 and Spain’s 399.
.................................................. ..
However it is not a total disregard of mitigation measures. Looks like they are trying a half ass approach.

Statistics show roughly half the Swedish workforce is now working from home, public transport usage has fallen by 50% in Stockholm and the capital’s streets are about 70% less busy than usual – but Swedes are still able to shop, go to restaurants, get haircuts and send children under 16 to class even if a family member is ill.

And not all experts agree.....

The strategy has also come under fire from some of the country’s scientists. A group of 22 doctors, virologists and researchers on Tuesday criticised the health agency in an op-ed published by Dagens Nyheter newspaper.

“The approach must be changed radically and quickly,” the group wrote. “As the virus spreads, it is necessary to increase social distance. Close schools and restaurants. Everyone who works with the elderly must wear adequate protective equipment. Quarantine the whole family if one member is ill or tests positive. Elected representatives must intervene, there is no other choice.”
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Last edited by hcap; 04-21-2020 at 06:02 AM.
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Old 04-21-2020, 06:10 AM   #7
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As of today, deaths had risen to 1,511 deaths. In Sweden's effort to promote "herd immunity"

Sweden says 'herd immunity' very close
http://www.ecns.cn/news/2020-04-21/d...t5602675.shtml
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Old 04-21-2020, 06:35 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by hcap View Post
As of today, deaths had risen to 1,511 deaths. In Sweden's effort to promote "herd immunity"

Sweden says 'herd immunity' very close
http://www.ecns.cn/news/2020-04-21/d...t5602675.shtml
I hate to say this but I think the government will have to restart the economy. They have no choice. The survivors will just have to accept a million or so deaths in the U.S.

I hope I'm wrong.
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Old 04-21-2020, 08:34 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by hcap View Post
As of today, deaths had risen to 1,511 deaths. In Sweden's effort to promote "herd immunity"
Your data is misleading just like the leftist media claiming Sweden has a severe issue due to lack of lockdown.
The real measure of success is actual cases per 1 million people. Sweden is 550, whereas the US is 4000+. Deaths per million as you use as a measurement isn't a valid means of how well the virus is contained. All sorts of factors can be related to fatalities. How well they manage infected patients is one thing, but keeping cases to a minimum is the format by which all other numbers depend upon.
Everything you posted on this page regarding Sweden is misleading in measuring success at preventing infection. As with most leftist perspective with most issues, they choose the route that fits their narrative. They twist the truth and shove it down their supporter's throats.
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Old 04-21-2020, 08:35 AM   #10
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… and early random testing is showing death rate closer to 0.1%, although the lockdown defenders are saying there are many false positives for the antibody.
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Old 04-21-2020, 09:46 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by Marshall Bennett View Post
Your data is misleading just like the leftist media claiming Sweden has a severe issue due to lack of lockdown.
The real measure of success is actual cases per 1 million people. Sweden is 550, whereas the US is 4000+. Deaths per million as you use as a measurement isn't a valid means of how well the virus is contained. All sorts of factors can be related to fatalities. How well they manage infected patients is one thing, but keeping cases to a minimum is the format by which all other numbers depend upon.
Everything you posted on this page regarding Sweden is misleading in measuring success at preventing infection. As with most leftist perspective with most issues, they choose the route that fits their narrative. They twist the truth and shove it down their supporter's throats.
I am sorry I took you off ignore. Look at my earlier post #5. A graph indicating per 1 million people just as you are bitching incorrectly about.

They are fooling atoned with the discredited "herd immunity" that the UK tried, put Boris in the ICU, and gave up rather quickly.

Shove your rightie bias where the sun don't shine, but first learn reading comprehension.
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Last edited by hcap; 04-21-2020 at 09:55 AM.
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Old 04-21-2020, 11:21 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by Actor View Post
I hate to say this but I think the government will have to restart the economy. They have no choice. The survivors will just have to accept a million or so deaths in the U.S.

I hope I'm wrong.
Another brainwashed person who can't think for themselves.

Where exactly do you get ONE MILLION DEATHS in the USA from?

Are you completely out of your mind?

You have absolutely ZERO basis for that insane number, yet you peddle it as if it is fact.

And you're supposed to be one of the SANE ones on the religion thread? Mr. Facts? Mr. Science?

Damn man...reassess your life.
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Old 04-21-2020, 12:16 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
Another brainwashed person who can't think for themselves.

Where exactly do you get ONE MILLION DEATHS in the USA from?

Are you completely out of your mind?

You have absolutely ZERO basis for that insane number, yet you peddle it as if it is fact.

And you're supposed to be one of the SANE ones on the religion thread? Mr. Facts? Mr. Science?

Damn man...reassess your life.
So what is the number?

Since 1,000,000 is irrational to you.

It’s all guesses. A million does sound high to me.

But I think 60,000 is too low.

Nobody knows the true number.

Allan
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Old 04-21-2020, 12:28 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Actor View Post
I hate to say this but I think the government will have to restart the economy. They have no choice. The survivors will just have to accept a million or so deaths in the U.S.

I hope I'm wrong.
This has to be one of the most sensible things you've posted since you've been here!
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Old 04-21-2020, 05:02 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by hcap View Post
I am sorry I took you off ignore. Look at my earlier post #5. A graph indicating per 1 million people just as you are bitching incorrectly about.

They are fooling atoned with the discredited "herd immunity" that the UK tried, put Boris in the ICU, and gave up rather quickly.

Shove your rightie bias where the sun don't shine, but first learn reading comprehension.
I post factual data...look it up smart guy. I question any of your leftist graphs or any other political post you make. I do know one thing for sure, you are dead wrong about Sweden. I did in fact quote an error with numbers, their rate is 1482 per 1 million. I was looking at the recovery column. None-the-less that's 1000 fewer cases per million than the US. The gist of the leftist media comparison of the two was to demonstrate how poorly Sweden is doing having not had a stay-inside policy compared with this country.
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