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Old 03-16-2020, 04:23 PM   #76
cj
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Originally Posted by tholl View Post
Gets hard to do since all his horses were "transferred to another barn " earlier this meet and have now come back as "First time for barn" when really never left. Messes the stats up.
Wouldn't be too tough to weed out the beards. I'll see what I can do later this week.

Last edited by cj; 03-16-2020 at 05:56 PM.
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Old 03-17-2020, 03:35 PM   #77
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His three winners today:

Race 3, 9 horse. This was her second start in the new barn. Her last three starts on dirt (had a lot of better figure turf races) she had run 68, 70, and 70 with the last one for Diodoro. Today, second time out off a big drop in class, she ran a 77. She won by 10+ lengths but this one wasn't all that eye popping for me.

Race 5, 2 horse. This is a horse that started his career with big promise but never really materialized. He claimed him off Asmussen for 50k and had already run twice. Last start for Asmussen horse ran a 111 figure. He was dismal in his first try, then rebounded to finish a good third with a 108 next time. Today, he was back in for a 50k tag (first tag for Diodoro) and won and ran a 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure. But that doesn't really tell the whole story. The horse had a pretty rough trip. Don't think that 105 really tells how well he ran today. He got claimed away by Chris Richard, will be interesting to follow this one. They made some money on this one I would think since the claim was for the same price he was taken for by Diodoro and he had a win and a third for big purses at Oaklawn in just short of four months.

Race 7, the 8 horse. Another recently acquired by Diodoro. This was his third start since taking over for Shireffs, all at Oaklawn. This was a horse with talent that doesn't win much. He was 1 for 16 coming in but had run as high as a 110 speed figure a while back. His last four for Shireffs, most recent first, were 100, 96, 103, 94. For Diodoro he ran a 107 first time out after leading then getting caught late. Second time out he ran fourth but was beaten just over a length in a very tough allowance race, this time getting a 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Today, he won with a 117 speed figure.

Just from these winners, they aren't the huge jumps one sees with some other trainers, but they are noticeable. They also don't seem to be immediate. The first horse improved 7 points, took two starts to do it. The second winner didn't improve numerically, but the trip probably disguised that a little bit. Maybe he would have run around the 111 he ran for Asmussen but that is about it. So in three starts, he got a win but no real improvement. The third winner has basically improved 17 points in just three starts. It was gradual though, not a huge leap, and he only got the one win.

If someone asked me do I suspect this guy of being a Servis or Navarro based on his winners today, I'd say probably not but he'd be on my radar. But overall, I pulled up his stats first time with the trainer this year at Oaklawn. I found it hard to believe he has had 40 already, but he has. Of those he has won with 30% and an ROI of $2.23 per $2 bet. That sets off bells for me. It didn't matter much whether the new horse was a claim or acquired by other means, the numbers were similar.

We'll see what happens, but I don't usually think those kind of numbers are superior horsemanship, especially at a meet like Oaklawn that has big, deep fields full of horses trained by top guys.
Thanks for the dive into Diodoro CJ,appreciate.
I know this is a Saffie thread,I'll try to cover my Diodoro thoughts sort of quickly.

Timeline on the Diodoro suspicions:
I hadn't looked hard at PP's for a couple years......but I started up again @ OP.
The Diodoro red flags came fast......and continued.

His ratio of winners to runner ups (large enough sample) is over 2 to 1......take a look at everybody else at the current OP meet,the other barns numbers fall properly.

His horses seem to fire large more then even the best trainers can hope for,it's just amazing.
Oaklawn is a hard place to win a race,the field size is large.......and barns point straight at that meet.........apparently not so hard for Diodoro.
For example:
Asmussen: 18%.....kind of low for him.
Sadler: 15%
Hollendorfer: 10%
McLean Robertson: 8%
Tom Amoss: 12%
Norman McKnight: 7%
Cipriano Contreras: 13%
Genao Garcia: 6%
Karl the chemical Broberg: 8%
Let's give Oaklawn a ton of credit here.........outside of Diodoro,the major medication barns are getting smoked........that's why I think Diodoro has the undetectable stuff.

Diodoro has been popping the entire meet with horses that should win at about 50% of the time (or less) of what they're doing........his fresh stock is coming from all corners......and alot of the horses look to be common at best.....very suspicious.

The Oaklawn morning line maker is sharp.......he doesn't miss alot......the Diodoro hot action is making him look bad........all the pools are getting swamped with Diodoro money.

When the Diodoro horses win they skate........it's like they aren't even blowing hard.
Diodoro doesn't have a barn full of stakes/classy types.......his horses fall under the category of those who should be "hard to hold together".......his win % should reflect that.
And ask yourself this.......is Diodoro that much a better horseman than all the other high profile barns @ Oaklawn ?

From the jump......opening day......all the way through last Sunday, his horses have been on the nitro button.......all things considered that's very,very hard to do.

Now Oaklawn Park.....
I'm only guessing here,I think they're trying real hard to catch this guy......but it's hard when the stuff just doesn't show.
I also think at some point soon they're going to play the "we can't prove it......we don't care.......knock it off or you're gone" card.
To Oaklawns credit, the other chemical types are sinking hard.
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Old 03-17-2020, 03:48 PM   #78
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Nice writeup Taxi
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Old 03-17-2020, 04:55 PM   #79
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One of the issues for me has been that when these guys start to win every third race they enter they have money to claim what seems like every horse on the grounds. After they get a win or two they don't care if they lose them because few trainers can get the same results. Sometimes they get mediocre jockeys to ride them,perhaps getting some kind of consideration from the jockeys. Hell, I could ride some of these horses that open up by five lengths in the first quarter or go four wide into the turn because ground loss doesn't apply to these horses.
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Old 03-17-2020, 04:56 PM   #80
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Diodoro at Oaklawn last Thursday thru Sunday had 6 wins from 13 starts. 46%.
He also had 1 place and 3 shows. Only 3 of his horses failed to hit the board, and 2 of those finished 4th.

He had 1 win and 1 place from 2 starts yesterday at Will Rogers Downs.

Today at Will Rogers Downs, he has had 3 wins from 3 starts and has horses in the 7th (2), and the 9th (#2).

So, since last Thursday, he is 10-18 at those two tracks, with 2 places and 3 shows. 56% win rate. 15 of his 18 horses have hit the board. 83%

He must be one heck of a trainer.
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Old 03-17-2020, 11:58 PM   #81
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Nice writeup Taxi
Thanks CW,now I have to figure out how to play OP without getting involved in Diodoro entered races.
That is......unless he turns into an ice wagon.
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Old 03-18-2020, 02:10 AM   #82
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Now Oaklawn Park.....
I'm only guessing here,I think they're trying real hard to catch this guy......but it's hard when the stuff just doesn't show.
I also think at some point soon they're going to play the "we can't prove it......we don't care.......knock it off or you're gone" card.
To Oaklawns credit, the other chemical types are sinking hard.
It's not that Oaklawn or any track for that matter can't find this stuff. Trainers know what is being tested for. And are using something that is not tested for, along with a masking agent.

Why not get a sample, after a race. Instead of sending it to the normal place, send it somewhere else, where they test for a lot more and different substances. Don't tell anyone, and see what happens.
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Old 03-18-2020, 02:19 AM   #83
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He might be using some of that "undetectable stuff", as taxicab calls it, at Will Rogers Downs too:

Monday and Tuesday of this week at WRD:
7 starters
5 wins 71%
1 place
1 show

Last Thursday thru this Tuesday, at OP and WRD combined:
20 starters
11 wins 55%
2 places
4 shows

Last edited by trifecta; 03-18-2020 at 02:21 AM.
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Old 03-18-2020, 09:23 AM   #84
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I always thought Brad Cox moves them up on a pretty remarkable basis as well but not many want to hear it.
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Old 03-18-2020, 11:13 AM   #85
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You're not alone Peps.
Thing is there are so many relatively unknown trainers suddenly winning races it's really hard to track what's going on. Are they winning because the playing field has leveled, or because they are the newbies tilting it?
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Old 03-18-2020, 11:16 AM   #86
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I always thought Brad Cox moves them up on a pretty remarkable basis as well but not many want to hear it.
I've been meaning to run stats on him as well. He is certainly a trainer I take note of when he has a new horse in the barn.
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Old 03-18-2020, 11:17 AM   #87
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Originally Posted by trifecta View Post
He might be using some of that "undetectable stuff", as taxicab calls it, at Will Rogers Downs too:

Monday and Tuesday of this week at WRD:
7 starters
5 wins 71%
1 place
1 show

Last Thursday thru this Tuesday, at OP and WRD combined:
20 starters
11 wins 55%
2 places
4 shows
It would be easy to say he shipped in with superior stock and is beating up on weaker horses. But looking at the PPs, at least in my opinion, his horses haven't looked that strong on paper.
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Old 03-18-2020, 09:11 PM   #88
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INTERIM REPORT

I started this before the indictments. I am really happy there is some energy here. I am pretty good at statistics, like I might have stated earlier, but regardless of that, it is great to see some real substance to this discussion. The four I mentioned were really off the top of my head, for the most part. I know enough about numbers, and now that someone mentioned Brad, well, he is kind of an enigma to me. He is a horseman, yet he seems on the edge. I might actually say my gut tells me he is really really good. I hope he is. He does get really good stock, wins a lot of big races. He is young, Kentucky bred, and seems like the James Brown of racing. Regardless, you never know. The other four, plus Saffie, well, I would be hard pressed to be convinced otherwise.
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Old 03-19-2020, 08:44 AM   #89
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I started this before the indictments. I am really happy there is some energy here. I am pretty good at statistics, like I might have stated earlier, but regardless of that, it is great to see some real substance to this discussion. The four I mentioned were really off the top of my head, for the most part. I know enough about numbers, and now that someone mentioned Brad, well, he is kind of an enigma to me. He is a horseman, yet he seems on the edge. I might actually say my gut tells me he is really really good. I hope he is. He does get really good stock, wins a lot of big races. He is young, Kentucky bred, and seems like the James Brown of racing. Regardless, you never know. The other four, plus Saffie, well, I would be hard pressed to be convinced otherwise.

tend to agree, would have to really look at percentages off claim. He fires at a good rate at NY and let me ask how much time does one think that Brad Cox himself spends at the Big A or Belmont in the winter months. I would bet he spends 95% of his time between FG and Oaklawn. These super trainers I just never know what to make of it. He must have a really good assistant in NY. I am not saying yes or no and really don't care much but it is interesting and what gets me is how some are constantly under scrutiny but some get a free pass when it comes to public perception

I would bet Asmussen fires at a lessor rate in NY than he does most other places because he nor his top assistant are there until Saratoga. Seems to make sense to me although his long time assistant in NY has proven very capable.

Just my thoughts
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Old 03-19-2020, 04:20 PM   #90
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Diodoro continues his victory march through Oaklawn Park. He's 2 for 2 today, winning the 3rd with #3 Adheretome, and the 4th with #2 Hamazing Vision.

He's now 8-15 at OP since last Thursday (53%) and 5 for 7 since this Monday at WRD (71%). That's 13-22 combined ( 59%).

He has three more at OP today:

race 6 #1 Coal Truth
race 7 #1 Aqwaam and #1A Starshp Zeus
race 8 #8 Street To Indy
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