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Old 02-21-2020, 02:24 PM   #16
RunForTheRoses
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I know this has been said before but that December 2018 Md claimer at GP was such an unlikely key race as Joseph's horse won the PA Derby with a horse who ran in it as well.
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Old 02-21-2020, 03:03 PM   #17
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I've waded into a few of these threads on Twitter over the past year, most recently about Diodoro (who was 17 for 42 from opening day 1/24 through about 2/8).

Putting aside the comments horses move up a lot, re-break, etc... just based on statistics alone I'm unconvinced using statistics to make a case a trainer is taking an edge has any validity. I'm saying this as someone who once made a public comment about McKnight's win percentage off the claim, but when someone I respect privately challenged me I did some more research and agreed I was out of line.

Regarding Joseph - in the last 12 months, Joseph has started 404 horses and won with 107, a 26% rate. Maybe people smarter than me will say 404 horses is enough of a sample so I went back two years and his record is the same 26% (172 on 662).

I'll agree it's a decent sample. If someone deeply versed in statistics states 662 is a statistically significant sample and the results are not due to chance alone that ends one of the discussion points.

By the way, his record first off the claim for the last 2 years is 25 for 104 (24%).

Back to the straight win percentage discussion. For me, the 26% win rate just isn't high enough, relative to average, or if plotted on a curve it would not be more than two standard deviations from the mean of all trainer's overall win percentage to make any allegations.

I'm not an statistics expert, but I am a cynic, I and believe its very difficult to prove any of these results are not explainable by chance alone.

Back to Diodoro at Oaklawn, through 2/20 his record is 24 for 65 (37%) but his five year record is 161 for 625 (26%) which is high but not implausible for the kind of operation he runs.


From a handicapping perspective, I certainly do pay attention to these trainers who win at a consistently high percentage, but in my opinion there needs to be more substance before suggesting something nefarious from these numbers.
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Old 02-21-2020, 03:54 PM   #18
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As a bettor, I've long passed the point of trying to figure out why certain trainers seem to do great with new acquisitions. It really has no effect on me. I just like to know which ones have it happen the most and use their horses when appropriate. I leave the why to regulators. I know I've watched more horse races than most people alive and I know what it normal and what is out of the ordinary.

As a speed figure guy I see plenty of things that make me wonder, but again, it really doesn't matter to me. It helps knowing who the move up guys are so you aren't surprised when making numbers and skeptical because a horse seems to run off the page. With some trainers, it is best to expect the unexpected. It helps keep you from making bad numbers.
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Old 02-22-2020, 11:45 AM   #19
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NOT SLOWING DOWN AS MUCH

Lets face it, the opinion of CJ holds salt to me over most all others. I know the stuff going back decades to Sartin and so forth. The horses do not go faster on dirt per se, unless they go slow fast like perhaps Math Wizard. The bottom line is they do not tire as much in general on the dirt. I would love to see a database of horses who were claimed by Joseph, and others mentioned above, and how they fared from the next claim AWAY from them or where they ended up. Yesterday at GPX I stayed away from Road To Peace in Race 8 from a small percentage guy claimed away from SJ after he ran exceptionally well two starts in a row. He ran poorly. It would be great to see data on this off the claim from these super claiming trainers.
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Old 02-22-2020, 02:38 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by paulbenny View Post
Lets face it, the opinion of CJ holds salt to me over most all others. I know the stuff going back decades to Sartin and so forth. The horses do not go faster on dirt per se, unless they go slow fast like perhaps Math Wizard. The bottom line is they do not tire as much in general on the dirt. I would love to see a database of horses who were claimed by Joseph, and others mentioned above, and how they fared from the next claim AWAY from them or where they ended up. Yesterday at GPX I stayed away from Road To Peace in Race 8 from a small percentage guy claimed away from SJ after he ran exceptionally well two starts in a row. He ran poorly. It would be great to see data on this off the claim from these super claiming trainers.
I don't have time today, but that is doable with the Formulator trainer tool. I'll give it a look.
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Old 02-22-2020, 09:39 PM   #21
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THANK YOU

That would be great. I appreciate it. I do recognize it does get into a lot of data and it is less efficient to obtain, and maybe some judgements have to be made.
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Old 02-23-2020, 09:29 AM   #22
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Haven't gotten FORMULATOR yet .

While I'm not a big angles player right now, It's a powerful tool. If you are constructing a multi-race wager(or ANY Exotic deeper than a Double/Exacta), you are likely to be required to make a decision or two, on a horse where you don't already have a major significant opinion.
Also some standalone value if you were inclined to hunt for occasional mispriced bets.

Also interested in 1st-off-the claim numbers
for this thread, as I've followed the thread along.


In general, - Of the opinion that the 'odds' do a reasonably good job at pricing hot-trainers, and trainer-changes. In the shorter-odds range, I find a lot of 'reluctant-include' types. I have to use them in anything other than a surgical/1-number type of ticket, and depending on how good a streak, one of these good trainers may be on, they seem to lose in ROI.

Anecdotally, the mid-range prices are more interesting to me. I like to see when one of these good trainers is doing something like a class-hike..., Scenarios, where the public is generally hesitant to hammer, and you have an opportunity to do the work, and form an opinion.
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 02-23-2020 at 09:31 AM.
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Old 02-24-2020, 10:13 AM   #23
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"Scenarios, where the public is generally hesitant to hammer, and you have an opportunity to do the work, and form an opinion."
You nailed it there RF. That's how you win! Both my dad and my Father gave me the same advice. "You can't be just like everyone else AND be outstanding."
The little ditty from Pizzolla, "Let the bet make you", cements it.
Doing the work is where you get an edge.

26% is an outstanding w rate for any trainer. 18% is considered very good. But that 26% leaves you 73 % chance to find the spot where you can win.

Joseph is good enough to cause me problems, and bad enough to arouse my ire. I've come to regard his entries with suspicion, but also respect.
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Old 02-24-2020, 10:24 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by cj View Post
As a bettor, I've long passed the point of trying to figure out why certain trainers seem to do great with new acquisitions. It really has no effect on me. I just like to know which ones have it happen the most and use their horses when appropriate. I leave the why to regulators. I know I've watched more horse races than most people alive and I know what it normal and what is out of the ordinary.

As a speed figure guy I see plenty of things that make me wonder, but again, it really doesn't matter to me. It helps knowing who the move up guys are so you aren't surprised when making numbers and skeptical because a horse seems to run off the page. With some trainers, it is best to expect the unexpected. It helps keep you from making bad numbers.
This post reminds me of a Harvey Pack quote from years ago. When at the Paddock Club,Harvey was asked what are you going to do about Oscar Barrera ? He responded,I donít know what you are going to do,but I am going to bet him.
This was when Oscar was at his peak. Things are no different today. You have to bet these trainers when they are hot and in most cases throw out their horses when they change barns.
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Old 02-24-2020, 10:51 AM   #25
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Saffie Joseph, last 365 days

1st time after claim...

31 for 77, 40%, $2.40 ROI per $2

1st time after claimed from...

15 for 72, 21%, $1.65 ROI per $2
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Old 02-24-2020, 11:28 AM   #26
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Quote:
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Saffie Joseph, last 365 days

1st time after claim...

31 for 77, 40%, $2.40 ROI per $2

1st time after claimed from...

15 for 72, 21%, $1.65 ROI per $2
This information basically tells you that he must be used off he claim and his claimed from horses still are not throw outs. On the claimed from you probably have some individual trainers who have done well. Probably would be wise to look at each claimed trainer individually.
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Old 02-24-2020, 11:57 AM   #27
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Saffie Joseph, last 365 days

1st time after claim...

31 for 77, 40%, $2.40 ROI per $2

1st time after claimed from...

15 for 72, 21%, $1.65 ROI per $2

I totally agree as they come up going forward each and every one of these horses should be given a long look when handicapping.


Looking at his five year numbers off the claim I come up with 34% (65 for 189) with an ROI of $1.90 per $2. I still don't think 189 is a big enough number for statistical significance but I would say holding above 33% over five years suggests his ability to identify horses he can move up is pretty strong.



Statistically, I'll leave it to others to determine whether it's an outlier compared to the mean and no way associated with chance.
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Old 02-24-2020, 12:00 PM   #28
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Old 02-24-2020, 12:04 PM   #29
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I totally agree as they come up going forward each and every one of these horses should be given a long look when handicapping.


Looking at his five year numbers off the claim I come up with 34% (65 for 189) with an ROI of $1.90 per $2. I still don't think 189 is a big enough number for statistical significance but I would say holding above 33% over five years suggests his ability to identify horses he can move up is pretty strong.



Statistically, I'll leave it to others to determine whether it's an outlier compared to the mean and no way associated with chance.
I think there is a place for long term trends and short term trends. But for the most part, catching on to the short term ones before the public does is the best way to make it profitable. By the time sample size is big enough, profits shrink or disappear.

As an example, there was a time when Jorge Navarro had similar stats as Joseph does currently. But now, past year first after he claims...

17 for 83, 20%, $1.11 ROI per $2. People overdid it, he doesn't win as much, but he is still bet like he does.
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Old 02-24-2020, 03:25 PM   #30
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I totally agree as they come up going forward each and every one of these horses should be given a long look when handicapping.


Looking at his five year numbers off the claim I come up with 34% (65 for 189) with an ROI of $1.90 per $2. I still don't think 189 is a big enough number for statistical significance but I would say holding above 33% over five years suggests his ability to identify horses he can move up is pretty strong.



Statistically, I'll leave it to others to determine whether it's an outlier compared to the mean and no way associated with chance.
Back before trainer stats and move-up trainers were so widely publicized, I did very well following short-term trends with hot trainers. If someone wins 2 out of 3 off the claim (or the layoff for that matter), I'm watching like a hawk and jumping on that bandwagon right away (obviously you have to get your price; if it's Navarro at Monmouth and they're all 3-5 then why bother?). Statistical significance in this situation means zero. It's all about right now. (Edited to add---I didn't see CJ's post where he actually used Navarro as his example, but I guess we were thinking along the same lines of "overbet trainers")
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