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Old 09-15-2020, 02:54 PM   #31
classhandicapper
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I find it amazing that some people still don't seem to understand that "brand" and "quality" are strongly related.

Saratoga is Coke or Pepsi and AQU is Publix Brand Cola.

The thing is, if you put the higher quality product into the generic package and vice versa, people will quickly figure out the quality has changed and change their behavior.

Run great race cards at AQU or BEL and they will do way better.

Run garbage race cards at SAR and it will do way worse.

Any comparison must include that assumption, but without data we can't know the "exact" impact of running races/cards like the Travers, Woodward, CCAO, Whitney, Test, Ballerina, Alabama, Forgeo, Sword Dancer, Diana (and on and on) at Belmont the way we can with a few things O'Crunk helped determine with data. We can just assume Belmont would have done better (probably a lot) than it did in the spring where it was up 42% going into Saratoga.

O'Crunk did a very good job on handle issues during this period. I'm sure tracks could learn a few things from it. Someone should give him a job doing this kind of work.
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Old 09-15-2020, 06:01 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I find it amazing that some people still don't seem to understand that "brand" and "quality" are strongly related.

Saratoga is Coke or Pepsi and AQU is Publix Brand Cola.

The thing is, if you put the higher quality product into the generic package and vice versa, people will quickly figure out the quality has changed and change their behavior.

Run great race cards at AQU or BEL and they will do way better.

Run garbage race cards at SAR and it will do way worse.

Any comparison must include that assumption, but without data we can't know the "exact" impact of running races/cards like the Travers, Woodward, CCAO, Whitney, Test, Ballerina, Alabama, Forgeo, Sword Dancer, Diana (and on and on) at Belmont the way we can with a few things O'Crunk helped determine with data. We can just assume Belmont would have done better (probably a lot) than it did in the spring where it was up 42% going into Saratoga.

O'Crunk did a very good job on handle issues during this period. I'm sure tracks could learn a few things from it. Someone should give him a job doing this kind of work.
It takes years if not decades for that to happen. Saratoga had some of the worst cards Iíve ever seen from a major track , including a calendar week of 5 days and more than 50 races with just one 10 horse field yet people still bet enthusiastically because the brand is so strong and we love nostalgia. Those feelings are so strong that subconsciously one poster actually thought that the fields were large this year. A steady diet of 5 horse fields at Saratoga will out handle 8 horse fields at Belmont, even if itís the same pool of horses. Belmont after the quarantine was exceptional and much better than Saratoga this year.
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Old 09-15-2020, 08:41 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I find it amazing that some people still don't seem to understand that "brand" and "quality" are strongly related.

Saratoga is Coke or Pepsi and AQU is Publix Brand Cola.

The thing is, if you put the higher quality product into the generic package and vice versa, people will quickly figure out the quality has changed and change their behavior.

Run great race cards at AQU or BEL and they will do way better.

Run garbage race cards at SAR and it will do way worse.

Any comparison must include that assumption, but without data we can't know the "exact" impact of running races/cards like the Travers, Woodward, CCAO, Whitney, Test, Ballerina, Alabama, Forgeo, Sword Dancer, Diana (and on and on) at Belmont the way we can with a few things O'Crunk helped determine with data. We can just assume Belmont would have done better (probably a lot) than it did in the spring where it was up 42% going into Saratoga.

O'Crunk did a very good job on handle issues during this period. I'm sure tracks could learn a few things from it. Someone should give him a job doing this kind of work.
I donít think dead money discriminates based on quality of horses and races. Saratoga probably takes in more dead money then any other track out there because of the thousands of tourists that visit each year. They donít care about quality of racing. I know a lot of avid bettors who missed all that dead money this year at the Spaaaaaaa.

* For those that donít understand. In horse racing, gamblers use the term ď recreational money ď to classify novices who typically bet a lot of ďdeadĒ money into the pari-mutuel pools.
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Old 09-15-2020, 09:51 PM   #34
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Iím not sure thereís any dead money left in the game
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Old 09-15-2020, 11:41 PM   #35
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Iím not sure thereís any dead money left in the game


IMO...the "dead money" is already buried.
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Old 09-16-2020, 08:46 AM   #36
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It takes years if not decades for that to happen. Saratoga had some of the worst cards Iíve ever seen from a major track , including a calendar week of 5 days and more than 50 races with just one 10 horse field yet people still bet enthusiastically because the brand is so strong and we love nostalgia.
I agree it takes many years to fully establish a brand among casual players, but we already know that people bet more on high quality races and cards, super cards etc.. than lower quality races. So imo it's preposterous to compare 16K NW2L claimers and NY Breds at AQU to the biggest most important stakes and race cards in the world at Saratoga.

You could run the Travers, Whitney etc.. cards at Fonner Park and it would have an immediate huge impact on Fonner's handle, let alone running them at Belmont or Aqueduct with national coverage and a build up on Fox so people knew.

No one is saying Saratoga doesn't have a special brand.

People are saying if you are going to compare handles and "costs" at least "attempt" to do it right.
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Old 09-16-2020, 09:25 AM   #37
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The dead money at Saratoga is the casual fan that goes there for the unique racetrack experience, the bars, restaurants, and music at night, the spas, Lake George etc.. but doesn't bet the rest of the year except for maybe the Triple Crown and Breeder's Cup. That's part of the "brand". It's the town and vacation experience that attracts people to the track. I have friends that go to Saratoga every year that fall into that category. They don't bet a dime other than when they go to Saratoga racetrack. Much of that handle was absent, but we knew that would happen going in given no fans. Tracks (or races like the Derby) that usually get a lot of on track handle have an extra headwind in year to year comparisons.
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Old 09-16-2020, 10:14 AM   #38
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Come on Andy. You have no idea how "Saratoga at Aqueduct" would have played. It might have been just fine

Meanwhile your employer acted in a completely scummy fashion for all the horsemen you guys forced to move up to upstate New York in the middle of a pandemic. If NYRA really made so much money, how about NYRA pays for those expenses?

NYRA is a cancer.
I seem to remember a whole lot of jockeys, owners, trainers singing the praises of being able to be at Toga THIS year in the post-race interviews with Maggie and Acacia and Richie.

No one had to go there.

NYRA pay the expenses....what a crock!
Now you are swinging and hoping.
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