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Old 08-18-2022, 01:53 PM   #1
lamboguy
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question on CAW

does anyone here know which pools the CAW are allowed in or not allowed in for the NYRA product?
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Old 08-18-2022, 02:54 PM   #2
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i just got a call back from someone in the NYRA mutuel department. they told me that the CAW is allowed in every pool they have, BUT, they have to have their win-place-show wagers in 2 minutes prior to postime.

i got slammed playing a superfecta there in today's 2nd race and wondered if they were playing those. i am going to stick with the w-p-s there. if they can get me 2 minutes before post on straight wagers, they deserve the money!
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Old 08-18-2022, 08:43 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by lamboguy View Post
i just got a call back from someone in the NYRA mutuel department. they told me that the CAW is allowed in every pool they have, BUT, they have to have their win-place-show wagers in 2 minutes prior to postime.
I thought there were others - maybe some have changed back? Of course, the CAW bettors would still be allowed to bet using "traditional" interfaces into retail pools.

This article about the Triple Play (if that's still a thing - I don't tend to play horizontals to know for sure)

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...y-wager-may-1/

includes this information - retail customers meaning "not CAW":


"The retail-only NYRA Triple Play is the latest piece of a NYRA pilot program designed to reward the everyday player with opportunities for significant payouts. In 2021, NYRA replaced its $.20 jackpot Empire Pick 6 with a $1 Pick 6 available to retail customers only. Previous to that, NYRA restricted both the Late Pick 5 and the Cross-Country Pick 5 to retail customers only."
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Old 08-18-2022, 10:32 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by lamboguy View Post
does anyone here know which pools the CAW are allowed in or not allowed in for the NYRA product?
I could certainly be wrong, but the last I heard, they aren't in the win pool. I knew they were "allowed", but thought they had opted to not participate due to the cutoff restriction.

R5 today is a good example. #6 was 9/5 fav in the Win pool, but 3rd choice in the pick-x pools...
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Old 08-19-2022, 08:35 AM   #5
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I could certainly be wrong, but the last I heard, they aren't in the win pool. I knew they were "allowed", but thought they had opted to not participate due to the cutoff restriction.

R5 today is a good example. #6 was 9/5 fav in the Win pool, but 3rd choice in the pick-x pools...
i agree. thank god NYRA gives you a good shot in the straight pools. they also have less breakage than anyone else except for Kentucky and Canada. but they more than outdo themselves with the cutoff of CAW wagering on the straight pools. i really think that NYRA deserves our business on those good pools.

for those that think i am dreaming, i am almost positive that the straight pools are doing better without the CAW than with them in it.

if these tracks think its so necessary to allow CAW into wagering pools they ought to separate the CAW from the rest of the players and give them their own pools and let the computers battle each other with their top-notch algorithms.
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Old 08-20-2022, 08:47 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by lamboguy View Post
i just got a call back from someone in the NYRA mutuel department. they told me that the CAW is allowed in every pool they have, BUT, they have to have their win-place-show wagers in 2 minutes prior to postime.

i got slammed playing a superfecta there in today's 2nd race and wondered if they were playing those. i am going to stick with the w-p-s there. if they can get me 2 minutes before post on straight wagers, they deserve the money!
There is no CAW in the late pick 5, pick 6, triple play, cross country, and a win pool restriction of having all wagers placed by 3mtp
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Old 08-21-2022, 11:10 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by MonmouthParkJoe View Post
There is no CAW in the late pick 5, pick 6, triple play, cross country, and a win pool restriction of having all wagers placed by 3mtp
I have also heard from a very reliable source that would definitely know that they don't play doubles, specifically because they don't want to tip their hands.
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Old 08-21-2022, 12:46 PM   #8
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I have also heard from a very reliable source that would definitely know that they don't play doubles, specifically because they don't want to tip their hands.
do you happen to know which pools the CAW are allowed in by chance?
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Old 08-21-2022, 05:43 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by lamboguy View Post
do you happen to know which pools the CAW are allowed in by chance?
I believe Monmouth Joe has it right earlier in the thread.
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Old 08-22-2022, 11:22 AM   #10
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I have also heard from a very reliable source that would definitely know that they don't play doubles, specifically because they don't want to tip their hands.
That's good to know.

That would mean there's probably better value in Doubles than some other pools and especially so when you have a value oriented opinion in consecutive races.
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Old 08-23-2022, 04:54 PM   #11
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That's good to know.

That would mean there's probably better value in Doubles than some other pools and especially so when you have a value oriented opinion in consecutive races.
It also means the double pools aren't as good an indicator of win odds as many believe. Better than nothing, but not far from perfect.
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Old 08-24-2022, 04:57 PM   #12
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had some time this morning so here were projected double odds and final odds for Saratoga races 3 to 7. A lot of scratches and short fields but here it is: projected odds based off double pool going into race(closed pool) and final odds.

Race 3

4) 1.94 .......2.5
10) 17.13......14
11) 7.2.......4.5
12) .85......4/5
13)4.82.......5

Race 4)

1) 7.08.......8
2) 4.43......6
3) 1.90......2
4) 5.96.....7
5) 2.83.....3
6)4.72......5/2

Race 5)

1) 4.54......4
2) 7.80.....9
3)3.27.....7/2
4)6.07.....5
5).78......3/5

Race 6)
1) 13.43......11
3) 1.13.......3/5
9) 6.43(maybe 6.93)......8
11)2.66........7/2
13)2.48........7/2


Race 7

1) 14.19...............20
2) 11.31...............12
3) 43.69...............44
5) 3.82..............2.5
6) 8.38..............6
7) 7.06.............9
8) 1.04...........6/5
9) 6.48...........7
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Old 08-24-2022, 05:52 PM   #13
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Once in a while I sort the DD and/or the P3 pools.


It's not enough (for myself,) to gain an edge, but it offers a side question as the HOT/COLD having anything concrete to join your persective.

I still don't know enough, but it's a side model that the is on fire and the is ranked much lower than expected.

Hot market horses are usually a nice 'side model'.
Perhaps he had two dream trips in a row, projects deeper in the mid-pack? You thought his last two were 'dream' trips, and you thought the ML was a little more for the Pretty Form, Top Jock, High% Trainer...

and they can still win today! Every sentence or two in your 'story' needs some odds relief.
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Old 08-24-2022, 05:59 PM   #14
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unwind time

Quote:
Originally Posted by old time player
Every sentence or two in your 'story' needs some odds relief. - Oh Man! the could be on a loose lead if the jock asks. " is used to free leads and will crumble. Same Uncoupled-Entry?? Even better. This is golden.
" Please lengthen your message to at least 1 characters."


I choose "LamboGuy"!! Yessss
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 08-24-2022 at 06:01 PM.
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Old 08-24-2022, 06:49 PM   #15
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Looks like the favorite was off by one tick plus or minus, that's pretty much par for the course at NYRA. If that isn't good enough for someone I'm not sure what they want to see. Thirty five years ago before 'CAW' we definitely had more odds volatility than that and won anyway. If we're playing by rule of thumb on any of these favorites and insisted on a 50% overlay before betting then you only potentially went under fair value once (Race 6). To each his own I guess. Betting by the win pool odds at 0 MTP is likely going to be worse. When I tested several years ago I was going under fair value on my bets over 40% of the time.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter View Post
had some time this morning so here were projected double odds and final odds for Saratoga races 3 to 7. A lot of scratches and short fields but here it is: projected odds based off double pool going into race(closed pool) and final odds.

Race 3

4) 1.94 .......2.5
10) 17.13......14
11) 7.2.......4.5
12) .85......4/5
13)4.82.......5

Race 4)

1) 7.08.......8
2) 4.43......6
3) 1.90......2
4) 5.96.....7
5) 2.83.....3
6)4.72......5/2

Race 5)

1) 4.54......4
2) 7.80.....9
3)3.27.....7/2
4)6.07.....5
5).78......3/5

Race 6)
1) 13.43......11
3) 1.13.......3/5
9) 6.43(maybe 6.93)......8
11)2.66........7/2
13)2.48........7/2


Race 7

1) 14.19...............20
2) 11.31...............12
3) 43.69...............44
5) 3.82..............2.5
6) 8.38..............6
7) 7.06.............9
8) 1.04...........6/5
9) 6.48...........7
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