Something new to something old

[5thstreetpicks]

Something new to something old over the years the daily racing form has never changed its foundation for making speed ratings except now and for a while they use the 3-year best time and why is that because it works plain and simple the only difference is now we as the public we know the run-up before the clock starts years ago you did not get that in the results. The reason rags and thorograph is so expensive is because a lot of time and work goes into making those figures and those guys want to be compensated for their work and they work. Now getting back to what I was saying about improving DRF speed rating you will not be using the track variant now I know I'm going to get a lot of criticism but before you criticize me do the work and see for yourself we are going to use the 55 rate of speed if you know anything about Howard Sartin work
#1 go to equibase historical charts because you can see the run up
#2 divide the run-up by 55
It will look like this 60 feet divided by 55 = 1.09 now you can take that number and minus it from the final time 7F 125.83 -1.09 = 124.74 or 124.3
Now if you don't want to do the time but you just want to add to the speed rating you can do that too me I use .19 per beat lengths so 1.09 divided by .19 = 5.73 or just 5 pts like 35 run up = .63 divided by .19 = 3.31 or 3 see folks something very simple to something very old and improved now with better accuracy try before you start crying
Jim

[Onesome]

https://youtu.be/Ec7rCsNFn30?t=122

[5thstreetpicks]

So tell me something sir if it doesn't work why are so many people using feet per second ratings these days and another thing the theory behind it works if you got something better to deal with the run-up then post it but don't sit there and just talk shit...
Thank you for your criticism and you have a good night
Jim

[Onesome]

Lol, ahh such ignorant bravado from you sir, but I'm feeling charitable so I shall respond this night.

The DRF SR has it's widely known flaws, but was like the pre-release Alpha version of what the Beyer Speed Figure came to measure so it had a purpose...in the 70s. Anyone trying to use that today in 2022 is simply a fool. Add on to top this obsession with adjustments to run makes no sense unless there was a significant change in the run up between the 3yr best time and the race in question.

Why do people still use FPS? Again, 'shrug', it's a dinosaur as well, I mean take a look at the open 1/4 at 1m CD and 1m GP, one has a massive run up, the other none. You need to work to normalize it in a format like CJ's internal ratings you see on TFUS for it to have make any sense. And then the question become does it contain any value?

As for me, I've stopped trying to evaluate which horse is going to win, the market does a good job of that. My work is on evaluating on how the bettors behave vs expected behavior. And that's all I'll say on my work.

[5thstreetpicks]

Here's one for you guy when you're handicapping Gulfstream on the turf and you're looking in the past performances you want to use that official time but meanwhile it has a 289 ft run up my way just makes the final time more accurate so you keep doing it your way
Good luck guy

[5thstreetpicks]

Well I can understand what you're saying there but I'm also a firm believer that horses do not run to par times hey I got news for you I know people that still use American turf monthly plastic slide rule to his day so basically what it comes down to is to each its own but also if they are so flawed then why the hell didn't drf change after putting Andys Numbers in the racing form

[5thstreetpicks]

I just read the end of your article basically you rely on players and how they bet as the old saying goes a fool and his money will soon part ways . I look at it this way guy if I can get edge over the public and get a more accurate final time that will help me I'm in me personally I stopped trying to figure out who's going to the lead I don't believe in run styles but I do believe in the speed points it's a very sound system I would like to see brisnet keep track of the speed points besides the run styles but they don't do that because that's giving the public too much of an edge and they cannot do that. Race Tracks are in business to take your money not give you you have to earn it the hard way

[JeremyJet]

Originally Posted by 5thstreetpicks

but also if they are so flawed then why the hell didn't drf change after putting Andys Numbers in the racing form

I asked the same question back in the day. You could use that space in the Form for something else more useful. Just my humble opinion.

I'm not criticizing you, but I'm with Onesome. Use the Beyers.

[JeremyJet]

Originally Posted by Onesome

As for me, I've stopped trying to evaluate which horse is going to win, the market does a good job of that. My work is on evaluating on how the bettors behave vs expected behavior. And that's all I'll say on my work.

I like it.

What State are you in?

[sharkey11]

heres a question if the tracks are in business to take your money what are you in business to do

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by 5thstreetpicks

I just read the end of your article basically you rely on players and how they bet as the old saying goes a fool and his money will soon part ways . I look at it this way guy if I can get edge over the public and get a more accurate final time that will help me I'm in me personally I stopped trying to figure out who's going to the lead I don't believe in run styles but I do believe in the speed points it's a very sound system I would like to see brisnet keep track of the speed points besides the run styles but they don't do that because that's giving the public too much of an edge and they cannot do that. Race Tracks are in business to take your money not give you you have to earn it the hard way

I commend you for making the effort but your approach is flawed imo. Do you really trust how Bris calculates speed points or interprets running styles? You want a more accurate final time? You need to time the races yourself. Another member here posted recently about times at GP. Good luck figuring out the timings there. Speed points? They are not new so I'm sure if they were the key to winning someone would have already done it. Pandy created a different approach to speed points so maybe there's something there. I have not researched that approach so I have no idea if it's better than the Quirin method or even as good. It's a place to start, though.

Pace and speed are obvious important factors in handicapping but trying to get an edge using those is going to be supremely difficult, so good luck. Dick Schmidt had a chapter in (The New) Pace is the Race book called "Goodenough Numbers". I subscribe to that way of thinking as there are many ways to approach handicapping, and the data and methods to create better figures are teeming with flaws. Get close enough -- good enough -- and incorporate those numbers into other approaches/factors. But go ahead and chase that elusive accuracy -- it's your time and money.

[JeremyJet]

Originally Posted by 5thstreetpicks

The reason rags and thorograph is so expensive is because a lot of time and work goes into making those figures and those guys want to be compensated for their work and they work.

I've used these figs for many years and would like to think I have an educated opinion on the subject.

The figures are good. No doubt. The problem is the price.

An argument can be made that you're getting better value with the Beyer figures when you factor in cost. I mean, they're basically free.

[JeremyJet]

Originally Posted by 5thstreetpicks

The reason rags and thorograph is so expensive is because a lot of time and work goes into making those figures

A lot of time and energy is invested in the Beyer figures as well.

[5thstreetpicks]

Okay so let me answer some of these questions what am I in business for well it's definitely not to get rich not for what I'm charging that's number one I offer a very reasonable handicapping sheet with my top four pics where you can pay one price to get three tracks nobody offers that and I repeat nobody
Question number two let me ask you guy you're downloading but if not you anybody else you're downloading bris files do you trust them and as far as hand timing that has a flaw too so you basically try to rely on the time that you see in the racing form
thx Jim

[headhawg]

You missed my point completely but whatever. If you want to sell your crap here then become an authorized advertiser. And lose the attitude.