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Old 01-06-2022, 12:36 AM   #1
RacingFan1992
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Don't look for TC contenders that are racing this time of year.

Toss out any horse racing from December of their two year old year and January of their three year old year. No horse who won the TC raced in December and January. TC failures raced in those two months are a majority. Spectacular Bid, Pleasant Colony, Big Brown, and Silver Charm didn't race in those two months but the other 8 did. That's 66% (8 of the 12)
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Old 01-06-2022, 12:53 AM   #2
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So 8 TC winners DID run in Dec/Jan is what you're saying?
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Old 01-06-2022, 02:20 AM   #3
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So 8 TC winners DID run in Dec/Jan is what you're saying?
No. None did. I'm saying 8 of the Derby/Preakness winners who failed to win the Triple in the Belmont ran in December/January.
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Old 01-06-2022, 08:51 AM   #4
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All in All.....Trainers set a schedule to coincide with a plan...

Most good trainers take time off and let their proteges take over...

The "quality" horses get a plan:

2yo comes out in May......talented ones get top training till Breeders Cup if their good enough....

Then rest to Feb and trained again for Triple Crown........Done again at BC

Plus there aren't any good races in winter months anyway and horses need a rest too...

Mike
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Old 01-06-2022, 09:36 AM   #5
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Toss out any horse racing from December of their two year old year and January of their three year old year. No horse who won the TC raced in December and January. TC failures raced in those two months are a majority. Spectacular Bid, Pleasant Colony, Big Brown, and Silver Charm didn't race in those two months but the other 8 did. That's 66% (8 of the 12)
You should really rewrite or reword this or something because it's incoherent. What are we "tossing" them from if they won 2 of the 3 legs of the Triple Crown?
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Old 01-06-2022, 10:38 AM   #6
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You should really rewrite or reword this or something because it's incoherent. What are we "tossing" them from if they won 2 of the 3 legs of the Triple Crown?
Basically it's a betting angle against the favorite in the Belmont Stakes when the Triple Crown is on the line.
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Old 01-07-2022, 12:52 AM   #7
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Basically it's a betting angle against the favorite in the Belmont Stakes when the Triple Crown is on the line.
When it happens 1500 times, let me know.
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Old 01-07-2022, 12:55 AM   #8
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When it happens 1500 times, let me know.
13 for 13. Batting a thousand.
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Old 01-07-2022, 12:57 AM   #9
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13 for 13. Batting a thousand.
Yeah, go with that.
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Old 01-07-2022, 09:08 AM   #10
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When it happens 1500 times, let me know.
I doubt any of us will/can comment
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Old 01-07-2022, 10:22 AM   #11
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13 for 13. Batting a thousand.
You're loading the case here.

Top level winter racing wasn't a substantial entity during the early years that saw the majority of Triple Crown winners. And yet there still was a long drought of Triple Crown winners between Citation (1948) and Secretariat (1973).

I don't think NY was open for racing in the winter until even after Secretariat, and the major 2yo race that would keep a 2yo in training into December, the $1 million Hollywood Futurity, didn't originate until 1981.

So we are really only talking about 4 Triple Crown winners in the relevant time frame.

And yet, Real Quiet, who ran in both December and January, lost the TC by a whisker because of an ill-timed ride not because of the presumed baggage of those earlier starts.

Beyond that, Sunday Silence probably lost the 1989 TC because he had to deal with Easy Goer, not because he ran in December in a sprint allowance. California Chrome got stepped on coming out of the gate in the Belmont. War Emblem went to his knees at the start. Point Given was too close to a hot pace in the Derby. Tabasco Cat had to deal with the Derby slop and a loose on the lead Go For Gin. Thunder Gulch couldn't hold off his much preferred stablemate (or Oliver's Twist) in the Preakness. Alysheba didn't get Lasix and was roughed up in the Belmont. Risen Star took the overland route in the Derby. Funny Cide had to deal with the slop and a poorly executed :57+ 5-furlong workout right on top of the 12f Belmont. Smarty Jones got gang-banged in the early stages of the Belmont.

Meanwhile, the 2 most recent winners, American Pharoah and Justify, didn't race in those months because of physical issues. Had he been sound at the time and the declining Los Al Futurity still sported a $1 million purse, it's conceivable that the former would have started in both the BC Juvenile and the Los Al race. Would that have impacted his cakewalk in a short Belmont field 6 months later? Would Justify not have been able to do what he did if his debut came in late January instead of early February?

Last edited by Spalding No!; 01-07-2022 at 10:23 AM.
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Old 01-07-2022, 10:46 AM   #12
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You're loading the case here.

Top level winter racing wasn't a substantial entity during the early years that saw the majority of Triple Crown winners. And yet there still was a long drought of Triple Crown winners between Citation (1948) and Secretariat (1973).

I don't think NY was open for racing in the winter until even after Secretariat, and the major 2yo race that would keep a 2yo in training into December, the $1 million Hollywood Futurity, didn't originate until 1981.

So we are really only talking about 4 Triple Crown winners in the relevant time frame.

And yet, Real Quiet, who ran in both December and January, lost the TC by a whisker because of an ill-timed ride not because of the presumed baggage of those earlier starts.

Beyond that, Sunday Silence probably lost the 1989 TC because he had to deal with Easy Goer, not because he ran in December in a sprint allowance. California Chrome got stepped on coming out of the gate in the Belmont. War Emblem went to his knees at the start. Point Given was too close to a hot pace in the Derby. Tabasco Cat had to deal with the Derby slop and a loose on the lead Go For Gin. Thunder Gulch couldn't hold off his much preferred stablemate (or Oliver's Twist) in the Preakness. Alysheba didn't get Lasix and was roughed up in the Belmont. Risen Star took the overland route in the Derby. Funny Cide had to deal with the slop and a poorly executed :57+ 5-furlong workout right on top of the 12f Belmont. Smarty Jones got gang-banged in the early stages of the Belmont.

Meanwhile, the 2 most recent winners, American Pharoah and Justify, didn't race in those months because of physical issues. Had he been sound at the time and the declining Los Al Futurity still sported a $1 million purse, it's conceivable that the former would have started in both the BC Juvenile and the Los Al race. Would that have impacted his cakewalk in a short Belmont field 6 months later? Would Justify not have been able to do what he did if his debut came in late January instead of early February?

I hold you to a higher standard than making long winded responses to dopey posts. Leave that to the less talented posters:-)
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Old 01-07-2022, 10:51 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
You're loading the case here.

Top level winter racing wasn't a substantial entity during the early years that saw the majority of Triple Crown winners. And yet there still was a long drought of Triple Crown winners between Citation (1948) and Secretariat (1973).

I don't think NY was open for racing in the winter until even after Secretariat, and the major 2yo race that would keep a 2yo in training into December, the $1 million Hollywood Futurity, didn't originate until 1981.

So we are really only talking about 4 Triple Crown winners in the relevant time frame.

And yet, Real Quiet, who ran in both December and January, lost the TC by a whisker because of an ill-timed ride not because of the presumed baggage of those earlier starts.

Beyond that, Sunday Silence probably lost the 1989 TC because he had to deal with Easy Goer, not because he ran in December in a sprint allowance. California Chrome got stepped on coming out of the gate in the Belmont. War Emblem went to his knees at the start. Point Given was too close to a hot pace in the Derby. Tabasco Cat had to deal with the Derby slop and a loose on the lead Go For Gin. Thunder Gulch couldn't hold off his much preferred stablemate (or Oliver's Twist) in the Preakness. Alysheba didn't get Lasix and was roughed up in the Belmont. Risen Star took the overland route in the Derby. Funny Cide had to deal with the slop and a poorly executed :57+ 5-furlong workout right on top of the 12f Belmont. Smarty Jones got gang-banged in the early stages of the Belmont.

Meanwhile, the 2 most recent winners, American Pharoah and Justify, didn't race in those months because of physical issues. Had he been sound at the time and the declining Los Al Futurity still sported a $1 million purse, it's conceivable that the former would have started in both the BC Juvenile and the Los Al race. Would that have impacted his cakewalk in a short Belmont field 6 months later? Would Justify not have been able to do what he did if his debut came in late January instead of early February?
Sir Barton shouldn't have won because of tender feet but the track came up muddy and he won easily.

Gallant Fox stumbled in the Derby and still won.

Omaha ran in the slop in the Derby and Belmont and a fast track at the Preakness. Jockey even said he wouldn't win in the slop yet he did.

War Admiral weighed 900 pounds, was barely a 3 year old when he ran in the Derby, raced from the 1 spot in a 20 horse field and won the Derby. Ran in the Belmont after he broke from the gate with his hind hoofs over reaching in the start, gouging out the backs of his front hooves and still won the Belmont.

Whirlaway was the victim of a slow sluggish pace in the Belmont and Arcaro took care of that and sent the horse after a 49 and change opening half mile and won the race.

Count Fleet was retired when he bobbled in the stretch at the Belmont. Longden let out off the reins and thought the horse would ease up but in instead grabbed the bit and ran to a record 25 lengths and won.

Assault had that screwed up foot and still won

Citation ran on a sloppy track in the Derby and stumbled coming out of the gate in the Belmont and still won.

Secretariat got left behind in the Derby, grabbed the bit and ran in the Preakness, and hooked up with Sham in the Belmont after they both set suicidal fractions and won by 31 lengths in world record time.

Seattle Slew broke slowly, trapped behind a wall of horses and won the Derby. He ran on the slop in Belmont and won after the pace wasn't that fast.

Affirmed had that ankle biter Alydar to deal with.

American Pharoah ran in the slop at the Preakness.

Justify won his maiden, an optional claiming race, and the SA Derby making him a lightly raced Derby prospect and still won on fast and sloppy track conditions.

So you can give 1001 reasons why a horse lost the Triple Crown and I will show you one who bucked that reason still won and there are a variety of reasons why they lost it.

But the won thing that is consistent is they didn't race in December of their 2 year old year and January of their 3 year old year.
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Old 01-07-2022, 11:15 AM   #14
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Sir Barton shouldn't have won because of tender feet but the track came up muddy and he won easily.

Gallant Fox stumbled in the Derby and still won.

Omaha ran in the slop in the Derby and Belmont and a fast track at the Preakness. Jockey even said he wouldn't win in the slop yet he did.

War Admiral weighed 900 pounds, was barely a 3 year old when he ran in the Derby, raced from the 1 spot in a 20 horse field and won the Derby. Ran in the Belmont after he broke from the gate with his hind hoofs over reaching in the start, gouging out the backs of his front hooves and still won the Belmont.

Whirlaway was the victim of a slow sluggish pace in the Belmont and Arcaro took care of that and sent the horse after a 49 and change opening half mile and won the race.

Count Fleet was retired when he bobbled in the stretch at the Belmont. Longden let out off the reins and thought the horse would ease up but in instead grabbed the bit and ran to a record 25 lengths and won.

Assault had that screwed up foot and still won

Citation ran on a sloppy track in the Derby and stumbled coming out of the gate in the Belmont and still won.

Secretariat got left behind in the Derby, grabbed the bit and ran in the Preakness, and hooked up with Sham in the Belmont after they both set suicidal fractions and won by 31 lengths in world record time.

Seattle Slew broke slowly, trapped behind a wall of horses and won the Derby. He ran on the slop in Belmont and won after the pace wasn't that fast.

Affirmed had that ankle biter Alydar to deal with.

American Pharoah ran in the slop at the Preakness.

Justify won his maiden, an optional claiming race, and the SA Derby making him a lightly raced Derby prospect and still won on fast and sloppy track conditions.

So you can give 1001 reasons why a horse lost the Triple Crown and I will show you one who bucked that reason still won and there are a variety of reasons why they lost it.

But the won thing that is consistent is they didn't race in December of their 2 year old year and January of their 3 year old year.
Thank God none of them ran in December or January.
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Old 01-07-2022, 11:29 AM   #15
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I hold you to a higher standard than making long winded responses to dopey posts. Leave that to the less talented posters:-)
I botched it anyways.

I forgot to mention Charismatic, who probably lost the TC because he broke a leg as opposed to his 3 starts in Dec-Jan.
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