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Old 12-27-2021, 06:53 PM   #76
Robert Fischer
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Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
Was his effort really much different than Charlatan's last year?
I don't have the pace numbers for Charlatan/Nashville in the Malibu, but Flightline was faster. 118 vs 107? correct if wrong, but significantly faster

reasonably close theoretical matchup. Flightline has been faster, but the presence of both in the same race changes dynamics.

Charlatan did not get a ton of hype for the Saudi Cup, in large part because he didn't finish first, but also the setting and season. That was a big performance that I would put up w/ Flightline's.

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More racing isn't going to impact breeding at all (except for rare cases involving catastrophic injuries). But more racing does mean more opportunities for losses or even a complete tailing off of form. In other words, there comes a point where the likelihood that you are going increase a horse's stud fees with more racing is low and the possibility that you are going to decrease them is higher. And then add to that (1) the possibility of a catastrophic injury and (2) the cost, in the case of extending careers, of missing a breeding season, and you get the modern philosophy of doing just enough to establish a horse's breeding value and then retiring.

The real difference between now and the halcyon days of old is (a) who owns breeding operations- corporations and partnerships vs. inadividuals, and (b) the separation of breeding and racing operations through sales. The reason why a lot of colts had long careers back in the old days is because they were owned by rich people who were going to breed them themselves at their own farm when they finished racing, so they weren't giving up a ton in stud fees (or at least did not perceive it that way).

In many ways, I think the big bang of modern racing economics was Secretariat's syndication deal. Secretariat, to be clear, is NOT an example of a modern racehorse- he raced 12 times as a 3 year old, including in spots where he could have gotten beat, and DID get beat three times. But the deal meant that he wouldn't race as a 4 year old (as previous uninjured top horses had), and would never carry 130 pounds (as was standard for top horses in that era). In other words, though not as restrictive as a modern arrangement, it set the precedent that if you had a well bred big stakes winner, you could cash a huge check as long as you played ball with what the breeding industry wanted.

And what the breeding industry has wanted has gotten stricter and stricter since then.

And as I said, the tell that this is just about breeding, and not about the soundness of horses, is that they keep top mares and geldings going. Bob Baffert could run Game on Dude in races he might lose, because it wasn't going to do anything to his stud fee- running Justify in a race he might lose, on the other hand, was off the table, so they concocted an injury and rushed him off to stud.
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Old 12-27-2021, 07:04 PM   #77
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I don't have the pace numbers for Charlatan/Nashville in the Malibu, but Flightline was faster. 118 vs 107? correct if wrong, but significantly faster
Sorry, I meant visually Flightline did not do anything Charlatan didn't do last year with the latter hounding a free-running track record holder, kicking clear, and easy up in the final 1/16th. Much better horses in last year's Malibu as well, not Mahoning Valley and Prairie Meadows also-rans...
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Old 12-27-2021, 07:38 PM   #78
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Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
Sorry, I meant visually Flightline did not do anything Charlatan didn't do last year with the latter hounding a free-running track record holder, kicking clear, and easy up in the final 1/16th. Much better horses in last year's Malibu as well, not Mahoning Valley and Prairie Meadows also-rans...
Your eye-test is better than mine.

Nashville went to the lead and was well meant for CHC, and actually favored in that race.

Yesterday, Dr. Schivel had a faint chance of being aggressive and going to the lead but he failed to break or to fire whatsoever. The broke too well, and Mario and the others kind of held their path and waited to see if Flightline or someone would come up to take control.
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Old 12-27-2021, 07:46 PM   #79
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May 31, one mile carrying 130 lbs. Win
June 13, 1 1/8 miles carrying 132 lbs. Win.
July 5, 1 3/16 miles carrying 134 lbs. Second by a nose!
July 24 1 1/4 miles with 134 lbs. Win.
August 21, 1 1/4 miles 136 lbs . 3rd beaten a length.
Sept. 18. 1 1/8 miles. 135 lbs. Win.
Oct. 2. 1 1/4 miles. 137 lbs. Win.

If you haven’t guessed, that was Forego in 1976. Starting Memorial Day 1976 and concluding Sept. 17, 1977, Forego carried 130 lbs. or more in 13 of 14 races. He won 9, finished second 3 times, third once and seventh once. That was a racehorse.

The question is, do we no longer have horses like that or are modern day trainers afraid to test their horses; content to win Hugh purses against mediocre competition carrying feather weights?
That was exactly who I was thinking about. When you say "great" you better be on par with this kind of horse.
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Old 12-27-2021, 08:11 PM   #80
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Yesterday, Dr. Schivel had a faint chance of being aggressive and going to the lead but he failed to break or to fire whatsoever. The broke too well, and Mario and the others kind of held their path and waited to see if Flightline or someone would come up to take control.
Right, Team Merchants broke on top and his jock look around for someone else to take over; I thought Baby Yoda would go all in with his solid speed and the rail draw, but he only offered a meek early challenge--I suppose I should give credit to his jock for riding the horse for a placing rather than committing to a suicide mission.

Dr. Schivel did not show up, was barely able to switch leads in the stretch; went to the well once too often on him I suppose chasing the Eclipse award.

Just another typical California graded stakes that played out like a well-orchestrated team workout. Maybe we can get Vince McMahon to invest in the racing industry, that way we can have intro music for the requisite odds-on favorite when they come out of the tunnel for the post parade...
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Old 12-27-2021, 08:19 PM   #81
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That was exactly who I was thinking about. When you say "great" you better be on par with this kind of horse.
Amen - no discussion of my all-time favorite Forego can pass without the word "mighty"

Won graded stakes at distances from 7 furlongs to 2 miles. Under impossible weights by modern-day standards.
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Old 12-27-2021, 09:30 PM   #82
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Right, Team Merchants broke on top and his jock look around for someone else to take over;
yea, i don't think it was nefarious. I wanted Team Merchants to add to the bottom of a Tri or Su, and I would have preferred he stalked, but it stood out, and some jocks may have attempted to 'shut the door' on a heavily favored rival

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Old 12-27-2021, 09:51 PM   #83
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Sorry, I meant visually Flightline did not do anything Charlatan didn't do last year with the latter hounding a free-running track record holder, kicking clear, and easy up in the final 1/16th. Much better horses in last year's Malibu as well, not Mahoning Valley and Prairie Meadows also-rans...
I was really impressed by Flightline's race, but you make reasonable points here.
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Old 12-27-2021, 11:16 PM   #84
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Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
Right, Team Merchants broke on top and his jock look around for someone else to take over; I thought Baby Yoda would go all in with his solid speed and the rail draw, but he only offered a meek early challenge--I suppose I should give credit to his jock for riding the horse for a placing rather than committing to a suicide mission.

Dr. Schivel did not show up, was barely able to switch leads in the stretch; went to the well once too often on him I suppose chasing the Eclipse award.

Just another typical California graded stakes that played out like a well-orchestrated team workout. Maybe we can get Vince McMahon to invest in the racing industry, that way we can have intro music for the requisite odds-on favorite when they come out of the tunnel for the post parade...
He [Dr. Schivel] was bounced around after the start, so that is one factor that comes into play. Glatt said he has a fever this morning, and it could explain why he had nothing, too.
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Old 12-28-2021, 12:06 AM   #85
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He [Dr. Schivel] was bounced around after the start, so that is one factor that comes into play. Glatt said he has a fever this morning, and it could explain why he had nothing, too.
Yep, hopefully he bounces back next year. Still has room to improve. Has a profile similar to stablemate Collusion Illusion (good 2yo, sat out Derby trail, top sprinter at 3) though that one had a botched campaign this year.
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Old 12-28-2021, 10:27 AM   #86
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exciting horse!
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Old 12-28-2021, 12:54 PM   #87
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Old 12-28-2021, 03:34 PM   #88
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We are all just lucky no one from Baffert's barn was entered to knock Flightline sideways at the start or we may not have gotten to see this performance.
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Old 12-28-2021, 03:35 PM   #89
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CJ tweeted about 140, first blush, so pretty close
Wound up being 141.
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Old 12-28-2021, 04:28 PM   #90
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We are all just lucky no one from Baffert's barn was entered to knock Flightline sideways at the start or we may not have gotten to see this performance.
Wait for the BC Sprint for that.
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