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Old 12-19-2021, 06:01 AM   #1
Andy Asaro
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Must read HRN: Gamblers say stop the cheating and lower the takeout or else

Excellent article. HANA came on the scene back in 2008 and by the end of 2010 we started a boycott. It was the first time ever that Hollywood Park handled more than Santa Anita. It happened because Horseplayers/Gamblers were fed up. It seems like we're reaching that point again. I absolutely love to see these people speaking out in this way. They're telling the truth. Particularly nice to see Judy Wagner, a member of the NHC Hall of Fame and a former chair of the Association of Racing Commissioners International, speak out. Long overdue but very welcome.


https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...es_bettors_123

Excerpt:

“Lower the takeout,” Goldsmith said. “That’s probably the biggest issue.”

Beychok was less optimistic about racing’s future than Wagner and Goldsmith. He said he hoped Navarro would turn in any other horsemen who were illegally using drugs on their horses.

He said he also wanted racing to continue to try and catch the cheaters who sullied the betting product.

“The people that run horse racing, it feels like they just want to turn the page,” Beychok said. “Get back to whatever it was we were doing to police the drug cheats and just kind of put it behind. And I think that’s the exact wrong move. We’ve got to keep writing this chapter of finding the people that are cheating the bettors out of their money.”
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Old 12-19-2021, 06:15 AM   #2
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Old 12-19-2021, 10:52 AM   #3
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You're dam right we're fustrated.

The industry really needs to look in the mirror and stop hiding behind the facade of "but we love the horses."

You can't keep abusing these animals
You can't keep cheating the betting customers
You can't masquerade and act like you're not part of these abuses.
The industry is failing and you ass wipes are acting like you need Sherlock Holmes on the case. The problems are very easy to solve.

I listen to analysts week after week... and not one of them has ever mentioned that Ronnie Coleman got his clenbuterol from the trainer of the 4 horse in the 7th. It's really disgusting that instead they hide behind formulator stats... saying so and so is a great horseman, and that he sends out 38% winners off the claim. Truth is I can see horses that are breathing more air than is naturally possible through my crappy internet feed.

If you work in the industry and this post seems harsh? well, that's because this post is talking about you. Those that feel shame? we all should feel that way. I'm likely part of the problem as I'm the customer.

We all know Nevarro and Servis are just the tip of the iceberg. If you're not fustrated, it's likely because you're the one we want out of the industry.
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Old 12-19-2021, 12:51 PM   #4
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This the job NTRA is doing.
Racing is an embarrasment.
Everyone knows who is cheating.
If racing can't police itself, then we need some else to step in and do it for them.

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Old 12-19-2021, 01:10 PM   #5
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can't stop the cheating. It has 0% chance of stopping.

The takeout is at least 'possible' to lower. That's a tough battle
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Old 12-19-2021, 02:09 PM   #6
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This the job NTRA is doing.
Racing is an embarrasment.
Everyone knows who is cheating.
If racing can't police itself, then we need some else to step in and do it for them.
And with that (probably) comes PETA.
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Old 12-19-2021, 05:09 PM   #7
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HANA came on the scene back in 2008 and by the end of 2010 we started a boycott. It was the first time ever that Hollywood Park handled more than Santa Anita.



Again, how's that working out for you???

Hell, how's it working out for Hollywood Park ??


You forgot to mention when HANA effectively died?


Or that nearly every lowered takeout experiment has been something approximating a disaster both for the fools implementing it and for every simo outlet down the line that bothers to take the signal sent out by such fools.


When should we expect the HANA track ratings for 2021 ??

(or even 2019 ?)


We need some more Canterbury selections from the mighty HANA, to further underscore HANA's widespread influence (or at least some other means through which to measure any remaining pulse). Uh, remember when you told everybody in print that you predicted a roaring success for that Canterbury catastrophe?


If racing doesn't do something for the entire crowd, racing will die in due time.

Doing still more for some near-microscopic subset OF said crowd will merely widen the chasm between the sparse present-day racing public and the rest of the world which wants no part, precisely because of that chasm..

It's nearly 2022 - the old trends of some, but not all... are becoming obsolete (in case you hadn't heard).


Newcomers stumbling into Canterbury Park in 2022 would better respond to a small plastic bag just inside the gate containing the $4.73 they'll 'save' in lowered takeout to be offered immediately upon their plunking down the $10 admission than they would to lowered takeout. The people you want don't give a #&@* about lower takeout. Lower takeout is just a veiled effort to get something more for yourself at the direct expense of the entire racing industry.

People of that ilk have been racing's problem all along, and one need merely look back at pictures from NYC OTB's in 1972 while comparing to what passes for "crowds" at 2021 wagering venues to see the clear results of habitually giving a tiny sliver of the crowd what they want, at the full expense of everyone else involved.


Now what say you get to work on the 2029 Hana Track Ratings.

(at the rate you're going, maybe there will only be 15 tracks to worry about)
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Old 12-19-2021, 05:22 PM   #8
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Lower takeout is just a veiled effort to get something more for yourself at the direct expense of the entire racing industry.
Well, DUH!
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Old 12-19-2021, 07:15 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by AskinHaskin View Post
Again, how's that working out for you???

Hell, how's it working out for Hollywood Park ??


You forgot to mention when HANA effectively died?


Or that nearly every lowered takeout experiment has been something approximating a disaster both for the fools implementing it and for every simo outlet down the line that bothers to take the signal sent out by such fools.


When should we expect the HANA track ratings for 2021 ??

(or even 2019 ?)


We need some more Canterbury selections from the mighty HANA, to further underscore HANA's widespread influence (or at least some other means through which to measure any remaining pulse). Uh, remember when you told everybody in print that you predicted a roaring success for that Canterbury catastrophe?


If racing doesn't do something for the entire crowd, racing will die in due time.

Doing still more for some near-microscopic subset OF said crowd will merely widen the chasm between the sparse present-day racing public and the rest of the world which wants no part, precisely because of that chasm..

It's nearly 2022 - the old trends of some, but not all... are becoming obsolete (in case you hadn't heard).


Newcomers stumbling into Canterbury Park in 2022 would better respond to a small plastic bag just inside the gate containing the $4.73 they'll 'save' in lowered takeout to be offered immediately upon their plunking down the $10 admission than they would to lowered takeout. The people you want don't give a #&@* about lower takeout. Lower takeout is just a veiled effort to get something more for yourself at the direct expense of the entire racing industry.

People of that ilk have been racing's problem all along, and one need merely look back at pictures from NYC OTB's in 1972 while comparing to what passes for "crowds" at 2021 wagering venues to see the clear results of habitually giving a tiny sliver of the crowd what they want, at the full expense of everyone else involved.


Now what say you get to work on the 2029 Hana Track Ratings.

(at the rate you're going, maybe there will only be 15 tracks to worry about)
NOBODY expects takeout to be lowered at the expense of the Industry. Optimal price points are crucial to getting the most revenue for Tracks and purses.

I guess you think of yourself as some Avenger maybe?

HANA did some good things. When you're ready to tell us what you've done to grow the game I'll be paying attention. Good luck
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Old 12-19-2021, 07:43 PM   #10
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Optimal price points are crucial to getting the most LONG TERM revenue for Tracks and purses.
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Old 12-19-2021, 08:39 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Andy Asaro View Post
Optimal price points are crucial to getting the most LONG TERM revenue for Tracks and purses.
Yes...but how do we define the term "optimal price" as it applies to the topic of parimutuel takeout? Is the "optimal takeout" the takeout percentage that would lead to the highest betting handle...or is it the takeout percentage which would lead to the highest overall profit for the track? Because these two are not necessarily the same thing.

Last edited by thaskalos; 12-19-2021 at 08:44 PM.
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Old 12-19-2021, 08:59 PM   #12
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Yes...but how do we define the term "optimal price" as it applies to the topic of parimutuel takeout? Is the "optimal takeout" the takeout percentage that would lead to the highest betting handle...or is it the takeout percentage which would lead to the highest overall profit for the track? Because these two are not necessarily the same thing.
Still waiting for HANA to define this……

Takeout isn’t driving anybody away, nor is doping. What’s driving people away is not knowing what their wager will pay if it hits. I don’t think anybody is going to shy away from betting 2:1 if he/she is comfortable at that price but I’m not going to bet it knowing that it’s going to be 3:2 after the gates open and by the time they’re going into the turn. Get rid of the doping, lower the takeout…….and it’s still an unbettable product on all but the days where the pools are so big that they won’t shift in the 2 clicks after the gates open
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Old 12-19-2021, 10:16 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
Yes...but how do we define the term "optimal price" as it applies to the topic of parimutuel takeout? Is the "optimal takeout" the takeout percentage that would lead to the highest betting handle...or is it the takeout percentage which would lead to the highest overall profit for the track? Because these two are not necessarily the same thing.
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...Still waiting for HANA to define this……
I defined optimal takeout on the HANA site back in 2010 as the price point that would generate max revenue (gross profit) for tracks and max purse money for horsemen generated by parimutuel handle.

by: Jeff Platt | 02/17/2010
Takeout Elasticity Model:
http://www.horseplayersassociation.o...eoutmodel.html

Quote:
Code:
Simple Takeout Elasticity Model

        
	   Takeout  Handle    Takeout
	   Rate     Dollars   Dollars
	   --------------------------
	   .12      19200     2304 
	   .13      18100     2353
	   .14      16900     2366***
	   .15      15800     2370***
	   .16      14600     2336
	   .17      13500     2295
	   .18      12300     2214
	   .19      11200     2128
	   .20      10000     2000
Note that total takeout dollars... the actual revenue available for distribution is 18% higher at 14 percent takeout than it is at 20% takeout.

Based on this model, the optimal pricing point for takeout would be between 14 and 15 percent... Put another way, a takeout of between 14% and 15% (instead of the current 22% blended takeout) would maximize revenue available for distribution to the shareholders of the track. It would also maximize revenue available for distribution as purses.

Understand that the model in the paper is a simple one. In real life, it's more complicated than that. Different on track pools have different elasticities.

A pick six, for example, is less sensitive to changes in takeout than a win or exacta pool. Also, because of pricing spelled out in track signal contract language - intertrack wagering, ADW wagering, and rebates each have elements that create different elasticities. In real life it's more complicated than a simple one size fits all takeout elasticity = X.

That said, even though the study is a bit dated, the concepts presented inside remain quite valid.

-jp

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Last edited by Jeff P; 12-19-2021 at 10:19 PM.
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Old 12-19-2021, 11:44 PM   #14
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Still waiting for HANA to define this……

Takeout isn’t driving anybody away, nor is doping. What’s driving people away is not knowing what their wager will pay if it hits. I don’t think anybody is going to shy away from betting 2:1 if he/she is comfortable at that price but I’m not going to bet it knowing that it’s going to be 3:2 after the gates open and by the time they’re going into the turn. Get rid of the doping, lower the takeout…….and it’s still an unbettable product on all but the days where the pools are so big that they won’t shift in the 2 clicks after the gates open
The_Turf_Monster...good point.
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Old 12-19-2021, 11:54 PM   #15
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JP, the flaw in the optimal takeout analysis is that it doesn’t account for what hits purse accounts and all of the hands in the cookie jar along the way. There is a series of factors at play there with the largest being the ADWs. It’s not a simple calculation of takeout lowered = revenue increases
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