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Old 12-26-2013, 07:14 AM   #1
Ray2000
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RaysRobot Plays the Pic3s

The bot doesn't do races with coupled entries, too many breakers or too few lines or Maidens.
That prevents a lot of pick 3 sequences making the list but here goes.

I'll keep a running score based on $1 plays but unlike Win betting when playing the exotics,
the number of plays needed for results to become meaningful is out of reach in this run.

Side note:
I've never been able to "teach" the bot when to single, (Not even sure myself)
but I'd much prefer to play 3x3x1 for $9 when called for rather than 2x2x2 for $8.

Any suggestions are most welcome....

Steve M at Kimstarr has a good article on singling .....thanks for HU Sea Biscuit
Wonder if Al Stanley or Pandy ever covered "Singling" in an article?

Clocker still has Stanley's newsletters available....thx

http://www.handicappingharness.com/al-stanley-sunday/


Thursday, Dec 26

MR R2....2,3 | 8,6 | 3,1 ..Big Z Fortune-4/1___Shallow Hal-5/2
MR R3....8,6 | 3,1 | 5,1 ..The Panefactor-7/2__Too Much Pepper-5/2
MR R4....3,1 | 5,1 | 3,1 ..Instant Refund-4/1__Bullvilleblast-7/2
MR R5....5,1 | 3,1 | 2,3 ..Foomanchu-4/1_______Mr Presley-5/2
MR R6....3,1 | 2,3 | 2,3 ..Cash Mccoy-3/1______Hello I'M Johnny-7/2
MR R7....2,3 | 2,3 | 1,8 ..Scottish Rite-6/1___Hathaway Cody-3/1
MR R8....2,3 | 1,8 | 8,7 ..Fortissimo-5/2______Getinonthesecret-3/1
MR R9....1,8 | 8,7 | 1,5 ..Snuff Box-5/2_______Katelyn'S Scott-3/1

WDB R3...8,5 | 6,5 | 8,1 ..Alexander Lukas-4/1_Bop Too The Top-7/1



Good Luck All
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Old 12-26-2013, 10:08 AM   #2
melman
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray2000
The bot doesn't do races with coupled entries, too many breakers or too few lines or Maidens.
That prevents a lot of pick 3 sequences making the list but here goes.

I'll keep a running score based on $1 plays but unlike Win betting when playing the exotics,
the number of plays needed for results to become meaningful is out of reach in this run.

Side note:
I've never been able to "teach" the bot when to single, (Not even sure myself)
but I'd much prefer to play 3x3x1 for $9 when called for rather than 2x2x2 for $8.

Any suggestions are most welcome....

Steve M at Kimstarr has a good article on singling .....thanks for HU Sea Biscuit
Wonder if Al Stanley or Pandy ever covered "Singling" in an article?

Clocker still has Stanley's newsletters available....thx

http://www.handicappingharness.com/al-stanley-sunday/


Thursday, Dec 26

MR R2....2,3 | 8,6 | 3,1 ..Big Z Fortune-4/1___Shallow Hal-5/2
MR R3....8,6 | 3,1 | 5,1 ..The Panefactor-7/2__Too Much Pepper-5/2
MR R4....3,1 | 5,1 | 3,1 ..Instant Refund-4/1__Bullvilleblast-7/2
MR R5....5,1 | 3,1 | 2,3 ..Foomanchu-4/1_______Mr Presley-5/2
MR R6....3,1 | 2,3 | 2,3 ..Cash Mccoy-3/1______Hello I'M Johnny-7/2
MR R7....2,3 | 2,3 | 1,8 ..Scottish Rite-6/1___Hathaway Cody-3/1
MR R8....2,3 | 1,8 | 8,7 ..Fortissimo-5/2______Getinonthesecret-3/1
MR R9....1,8 | 8,7 | 1,5 ..Snuff Box-5/2_______Katelyn'S Scott-3/1

WDB R3...8,5 | 6,5 | 8,1 ..Alexander Lukas-4/1_Bop Too The Top-7/1



Good Luck All
Ray the 2/2/2 was just a suggestion. I think the 3/3/1 is solid also. My main idea was because of your "dutch" thread. Attempting to get some price horses in the pic3 ticket.
Ray here is a link to some Pandy thinking. However it is mostly for the BigM thus using more tickets. Most of the pic3 stuff is at the bottom part of the article.

http://handicapping.ustrotting.com/pandyarchives.cfm

I agree 100% on the kick out of a set up that has a race with to many breakers or to few races by each horse. I think NFLD has quite a few pic3's also and at a 14% takeout.

Last edited by melman; 12-26-2013 at 10:11 AM.
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Old 12-26-2013, 11:22 AM   #3
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couple scratches at monti:

Race 2 #2 Big Z Fortune-SCR
Race 6 #1 Hello I'm Johnny-SCR

that's ok though, makes the (pick 3) tickets a lil cheaper....if a 50 cent ticket can get any "cheaper"


as always-THANKS RAY!
and BOL
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ok, so why isnt it called a, "superfector"?
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Old 12-26-2013, 07:15 PM   #4
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The way a person attacks a Pick3 or Pick4 is not universal. It depends on "your" strengths. A technique that is effective, if "you" are good at picking winners is...

1 w 1 w 1234
1 w 1234 w 1
1234 w 1 w 1
(where #1 is the top pick of a race)

This way, if you pick 2of3 winners, you can capture that horse that you may have missed by going 2x2x2. Plus, if you were "hot" and picked all three winners, you are rewarded with hitting the pk3 three times.

In pick 4's, structure you wager around your strong plays.

ex. 12 w 1 w 12 w 1

then go...

1234 w 1 w 12 w 1 ($8)
12 w 1234 w 12 w 1 ($16)
12 w 1 w 1234 w 1 ($8)
12 w 1 w 12 w 1234 ($16)

Granted, the more or less "secondary" horse you use, will increase/decrease the wager amount. If you can not have a small "strong players" frame, it may be best to look for another pick4. If your strong plays win 3of4 you will have a good shot at winning...and of course, if you we spot on, you would of hit it 4X.

Just trying to help out and give my thoughts...as this technique has worked quite well for me.

Goldsheet BoB

Last edited by Goldsheet BoB; 12-26-2013 at 07:17 PM.
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Old 12-26-2013, 08:01 PM   #5
Ray2000
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Sound logic Bob, thx for the comments.

Only thing that worked for me today was all the scratches.

How to handle the race with a strong odds-on favorite? Single because of the hi chance of a win or go against with all contenders because the fave will be overused and much abused in the Pick pool. That one puzzles me all the time.

GL with your picks
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Old 12-26-2013, 08:38 PM   #6
Goldsheet BoB
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I play Northfield, so the answer is easy...

R8 starts the PK4, R9 starts a PK3...if you have a horse that is 1-1 or less in the first race, skip the race and play the PK3. It usually pays about the same, and in some instances actually more...and you don't have to risk the big FAV losing.

If this was not the case at "your" track...I would either skip the PK4 or estimate what I expected the payout would be, with the ML picks in the other legs. Estimate the expected payout, as compared to the cost of the wager, to evaluate if it is worth the play. In pick 3's, with the technique above, it is a small wager and is likely still worth playing...and you have a ticket with alternate picks in that first leg...in PK4s, the cost is higher...estimating value would determine if it is a worth while proposition.

home this helped.

Last edited by Goldsheet BoB; 12-26-2013 at 08:41 PM.
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Old 12-27-2013, 06:17 AM   #7
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Results:

No hits

I haven't automated the results retrieval as yet so any scratch is scored as full refund even if the remaining single hits.
Monti ---scratches in R2,6,7 ...leaves 3 Pic races bet with 8$ tkts -$24
Woodbine -$8
To date:.....Bets in $32, back $0

Friday 12/27 Pic3 plays
MR R1....7,1 | 4,5 | 5,1 ..Lex Lugar-5/2_______Bullville Honey-3/1
MR R5....4,6 | 4,2 | 4,1 ..Lady Alice-5/2______Sleaze Lightening-7/2
MR R6....4,2 | 4,1 | 2,4 ..Er Candy-5/2________Bullville Ata Girl-7/2

M R4.....9,8 | 3,9 | 3,4 ..Miss Coco Luck-5/1__If I Didnt Care-8/1
M R8.....8,3 | 6,9 | 5,4 ..The Summer Wind-5/1_Billmar Scooter-5/2
M R9.....6,9 | 5,4 | 6,9 ..Stage It Right-7/2__Shawnee Dancer-8/1

WDB R6...6,1 | 8,4 | 6,8 ..Perfectly Royal-7/1_Hat Trick Honey-6/1
WDB R7...8,4 | 6,8 | 7,3 ..Amigo De Grande-4/1_Charlie Is A Joker-6/1
WDB R8...6,8 | 7,3 | 6,7 ..Genesee-2/1_________Cheyenne Moishe-8/1


BTW
R3-4-5 Pic3 at Woodbine Winners of $80-$21-$7.60 2$P3 2/7/1 paid $5390
What am I doing here....
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Old 12-27-2013, 07:37 AM   #8
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Ray let's do a little redboarding. Since this particular pic3 paid only $149 I think it will be OK. Yesterday at MR races 10-11-12 was for me a great setup for a 3/3/1 ticket. The MOTO pick of the day for me was Must be Psychic thus an easy "single" as he fell into the 3rd leg. For me to use a huge "lock" horse in the first leg is almost always a no-no. Would have to like some real bombs in legs two and three. A single in the last leg goes against the grain of what I feel the average player does. He wants to hit no matter what. What were the bots top three in races 10 and 11? For that matter did the bot think that Psychic was as big a "lock" as I did?
Pic "set ups" are intersting an no doubt can be attacted in many ways. What I really look for of course is what I feel are "live" price horses in the pic line up. The more the better. I also like to look first at the pic's with the low takeout rates. Ray nothin like pacing the carpet when you have some live ones in a good paying last leg of a pic bet.
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Old 12-27-2013, 07:55 AM   #9
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Also today at MR Ray I think the 4 in R7 will be a legit 3/5 horse. The horse gets the tracks best driver, loves to win, and has the speed. A tough combo to beat.
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Old 12-27-2013, 08:08 AM   #10
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Monti R 10 and 11 yesterday were not close, Pic123 - 874 and 152
In that 12th Race bot had 473 but passed because of all the breakers.


In todays picks MR R7, third choice is a 12/1 ML ...#8.Always An Optimist

Bad post, no gate speed, but was claimed in last that's always worth a 2nd look and I'd say should use in P3 but not bet to Win.

Good Luck



I posted this before I saw your reply #9.

The bot has that one loss showing on Bee Bee as Break Neck Quarter and forgives it.
Will be tough to beat
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Last edited by Ray2000; 12-27-2013 at 08:19 AM.
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Old 12-27-2013, 09:42 AM   #11
melman
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray2000
No hits

I haven't automated the results retrieval as yet so any scratch is scored as full refund even if the remaining single hits.
Monti ---scratches in R2,6,7 ...leaves 3 Pic races bet with 8$ tkts -$24
Woodbine -$8
To date:.....Bets in $32, back $0

Friday 12/27 Pic3 plays
MR R1....7,1 | 4,5 | 5,1 ..Lex Lugar-5/2_______Bullville Honey-3/1
MR R5....4,6 | 4,2 | 4,1 ..Lady Alice-5/2______Sleaze Lightening-7/2
MR R6....4,2 | 4,1 | 2,4 ..Er Candy-5/2________Bullville Ata Girl-7/2

M R4.....9,8 | 3,9 | 3,4 ..Miss Coco Luck-5/1__If I Didnt Care-8/1
M R8.....8,3 | 6,9 | 5,4 ..The Summer Wind-5/1_Billmar Scooter-5/2
M R9.....6,9 | 5,4 | 6,9 ..Stage It Right-7/2__Shawnee Dancer-8/1

WDB R6...6,1 | 8,4 | 6,8 ..Perfectly Royal-7/1_Hat Trick Honey-6/1
WDB R7...8,4 | 6,8 | 7,3 ..Amigo De Grande-4/1_Charlie Is A Joker-6/1
WDB R8...6,8 | 7,3 | 6,7 ..Genesee-2/1_________Cheyenne Moishe-8/1


BTW
R3-4-5 Pic3 at Woodbine Winners of $80-$21-$7.60 2$P3 2/7/1 paid $5390
What am I doing here....
How about this pic payoff on races 11-12-13 last Friday night at the BigM.

Leg 1 $12.00
Leg 2 $14.40
Leg 3 $30.60

pic3 payoff $3849.00 bit of an ovrlay payoff uh?
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Old 12-27-2013, 02:04 PM   #12
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Wink

I like Billmar Scooter in the eighth as well, Ray. There are some tough races tonight. Let me add a couple of possible value bets.

Race 7 No 5 Il Mago ML 8-1

Race 10 No 7 Temple of Doom ML 6-1 The key to this race is if this horse will be ready. Julie Miller is good off a layoff and this used to be a very good horse so maybe the back class will come through.

Good luck to all as always.
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Old 12-28-2013, 06:16 AM   #13
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Good call on Il Mago, roy...

For me, had a good start at WDB R6 with Perfectly Royal $24.90 but Amigo lost photo in R7
Everyone had Genesee in the 8th
Did Hit R8-9-10 for record? low 1$Pic3 pay .....$8.30

To date: Bets in $104 back $8.30

Onward and Upward....For Dec 28

M R4.....8,3 | 6,8 | 2,4 ...Ring Leda-8/1___________Jldon'Twastemytime-5/2
M R8.....8,5 | 9,10 | 4,5 ..K-Lees Shakenbake-3/1___Mindset-5/2
M R9.....9,10 | 4,5 | 1,7 ..Cashendash Hanover-15/1_Stonebridge Tonic-20/1

WDB R1...7,3 | 5,8 | 6,3 ..Smarty Pants-5/2_________Hldontghttoyurdrms-2/1
WDB R2...5,8 | 6,3 | 3,6 ..Nowucit Nowudont-7/2_____Take My Picture-3/1
WDB R3...6,3 | 3,6 | 9,6 ..Frankies Dragon-3/1______Cougar Hall-5/2
WDB R4...3,6 | 9,6 | 9,2 ..In Commando-8/1__________Leafs And Wings-12/1
WDB R5...9,6 | 9,2 | 3,4 ..Thats The Life-4/1_______Pouvoir Duharas-5/1
WDB R6...9,2 | 3,4 | 6,9 ..Fork-5/1_________________Talbotcreek Jewely-7/1
WDB R7...3,4 | 6,9 | 7,10 ..My Man Charley-3/1______Whippet Good-8/1
WDB R8...6,9 | 7,10 | 6,4 ..Shipps Xpectancy-7/1____Simply Business-4/1
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Last edited by Ray2000; 12-28-2013 at 06:27 AM.
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Old 12-28-2013, 01:40 PM   #14
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Yech on that Pic 3 payoff
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Old 12-30-2013, 04:59 AM   #15
Ray2000
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Monday Funday

No hits on Saturday -$88...To date -184
No plays on Sunday
9 in a row for today

New rule in effect, Robot will Single Pick 1 if rated 3/2 or lower and not in ML123
No Singles today

Monday 12/20
MR R1....2,4 | 1,2 | 1,2 ..I Deal Vic-5/2___________Styx Delight N-7/2
MR R2....1,2 | 1,2 | 8,7 ..Sin To Win-5/2___________A Lister-10/1
MR R3....1,2 | 8,7 | 2,3 ..Bet On Lindy-9/2_________Seeyouonthebeach-5/2
MR R4....8,7 | 2,3 | 5,4 ..My Irish Molly-7/2_______Ms Fushsia-5/1
MR R5....2,3 | 5,4 | 8,7 ..Diamond Tiara-5/2________Kz Bezz-7/2
MR R6....5,4 | 8,7 | 6,2 ..The Prophet Mary-5/2_____Rusty'S Flying-4/1
MR R7....8,7 | 6,2 | 1,4 ..Smashy Cerise-3/1________Machs Little Filly-5/2
MR R8....6,2 | 1,4 | 1,2 ..J R Jazz-7/2_____________Menard Hanover-5/2
MR R9....1,4 | 1,2 | 2,5 ..Get Ready To Rumba-5/2___Theron Seelster-4/1
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