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03-03-2012, 06:04 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 732
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Big Cap Pick 4
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I've still not met the man alive who pays the rent at 4/5 
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03-03-2012, 06:28 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 732
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 Da Ruler got mauled on the stretch, backed up fast, never really a chance after that. Probably wasn't the day to back him.......let's move on to the main events.
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I've still not met the man alive who pays the rent at 4/5
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03-03-2012, 07:10 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 732
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by positive4th
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RACE 8:
Other than elimination in the first leg, that was probably the worst result for me as the  stayed up to win. Of course, the way this ticket is constructed it's still full-speed ahead 2 x 1 x 5 the rest of the way, BUT I'm guessing that this result probably just took away any and all hedge options should I make it alive to Race 11.
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I've still not met the man alive who pays the rent at 4/5
Last edited by positive4th; 03-03-2012 at 07:14 PM.
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03-03-2012, 07:19 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 732
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by positive4th
RACE 8:
Other than elimination in the first leg, that was probably the worst result for me as the stayed up to win. Of course, the way this ticket is constructed it's still full-speed ahead 2 x 1 x 5 the rest of the way, BUT I'm guessing that this result probably just took away any and all hedge options should I make it alive to Race 11.
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A big part of me, the part that likes money, was hoping that the  would get up on the head bob, but at least the ticket stayed alive. Considering that 6-deep is really no opinion at all, it could've been much worse.
I was enthusiastic when I checked on the DD Pools for R8-R9, simply because it seems to indicate that the  drew a TON of action in the exotic pools, which leaves some hope for my tickets.
Gotta get through the 2 x 1 portion in the middle first before we start counting money, though. Good Luck.
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I've still not met the man alive who pays the rent at 4/5
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03-03-2012, 07:34 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 732
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If the or  guns down my runners in Race 9, I'll just have to take it. Not even considering any sort of hedge here, just expecting that my two will get the best of it.
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I've still not met the man alive who pays the rent at 4/5
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03-03-2012, 07:39 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 732
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by positive4th
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Race 9:
Well, I guess it's been (mostly) free money on Baffert runners today, this meet, this year, etc. Nice run by the  and best result for me moving along.
That being said, I kinda figured the  was ruining the whole race by straying around the turn. Honestly, we're lucky that the never really fired, we got a 2nd-choice winner home, and move along to our single stand in R10, the  Mr. Commons.
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I've still not met the man alive who pays the rent at 4/5
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03-03-2012, 07:55 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 732
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Going to go ahead and hedge a little in Race 10.
Should be a 2-horse affair between the and , and with my money already riding on the , I'm going to place a $14 Win bet on the as a mini-hedge.
My thinking is this:
++ If the wins, I'll just be cutting into his profit a little and holding 5 runners in the Big Cap. Based on the Pick 3 payoffs, I think my probable Pick 4 numbers will be able to overcome the lost cash on the should he lose.
++ If this race gets outside of these two, I would've lost anyhow, and I refuse to back any of the others. Look, I'm all for longshots, but if you go past these two, you'd about have to take all to be covered.
++ Should the win, I'll still lose money on the whole adventure, but should basically recoup the Pick 4 losses, which means on paper I really am only "losing" the bet on Mr. Commons.
With that all said, my total outlay now stands at $75.
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I've still not met the man alive who pays the rent at 4/5
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03-03-2012, 08:15 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 732
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Race 10:
And so it was that I turned it into a $75 waylaid adventure. That's fine - - as much as it kinda stinks to lose to a somewhat sensible Rosario-O'Neill horse, when you're beat you're beat, and the just ran great. Cost myself a few extra bucks, but I still like the idea, even though it didn't work out. Good luck to those that had him and stayed alive. There are very few of you out there.
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I've still not met the man alive who pays the rent at 4/5
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